Happy Selection Sunday!
Arkansas’ stay at the SEC tournament lasted two games. Here’s a double breakdown to tide you over until the selection show kicks off at 5 pm Sunday.
Arkansas 79, LSU 67
Will Wade’s final game as LSU coach was satisfying for Hog fans (and let’s face it, the rest of the SEC). The Hogs looked much better on defense than they did in the 77-76 win over LSU the week before.
Game Score
The Hogs’ game score of 95 is their second-best of the season, behind the 87-43 beatdown of Mizzou. It was only the fourth time all year the Hogs managed offensive and defensive game scores of 70+, with the other three being the two Mizzou games and Kentucky.
High game scores against LSU are partially a result of LSU’s stupidly-high analytics numbers. No, the Tigers aren’t actually that good, but it still looks good to beat them, especially by double-digits on a neutral floor.
Team Stats
That dark green on offensive rebounding is a stark contrast from the game a week before when LSU rebounded 44% of its misses against less than half of that for the Hogs. Arkansas really controlled this game, ceding no major advantage to the Tigers. Things obviously flipped on the Will Wade tech, which spurred a 19-0 run and gave the Hogs a lead of at least three possessions for good.
Player Stats
Those game scores probably aren’t what you’d expect. Chris Lykes led the way for Arkansas, though I’d note that the Hogs were actually minus-3 with him on the floor. And while you might think that Stanley Umude played poorly, he was a game-best plus-19.
We talked about the Tari Eason takeover in the preview, and while he technically led LSU, he was really not much of a factor in this game. Most of his 15 points came late, once the Hogs were already celebrating. Xavier Pinson… man, the less said about his two-game stretch against Arkansas, the better. He was the worst player on the floor both times he faced the Hogs this season.
LSU won’t spend much time thinking about this one. Not with the university releasing the NCAA’s notice of allegations that included 8 allegations of Level 1 violations, including seven associated with the basketball program. I’ve seen names like Scott Drew and Buzz Williams floated for this job, but that seems ridiculous given the fact that the NCAA might nuke LSU basketball here soon. Big names will probably stay away unless the NCAA’s case falls apart fast.
Texas A&M 82, Arkansas 64
Do we have to talk about this one? I mean, no, but we’re still going to. We spent a lot of time diving into the Aggies’ no-middle defense in this game’s preview, but the Hogs looked completely unprepared for it. The Aggies clogged up the passing lanes and made Arkansas’ offense look genuinely uncomfortable all game long. Texas A&M had more to play for and you could tell. Congrats to them on a well-played game.
What it means
There are two angles to the “what it means” discussion: first, what it means for Arkansas’ seeding. The answer to that is… not at all. Arkansas lost to a lower-seeded team in last year’s semifinals and didn’t change their seeding. Joe Lunardi’s mock bracket released after the game had the Hogs not dropping a single spot, much less a seed line. Arkansas is probably going to be a 4-seed and winning or losing against Texas A&M was not going to change that. In fact, beating the Aggies and then beating Tennessee in the SEC title game on Sunday probably would not have changed that.
Power conference tournaments exist largely for TV purposes. Auburn has an SEC title in the rafters and theirs is the only one people will remember. Quick: who did Arkansas lose to in the 2008 SEC title game and who was their coach? If you answered “Georgia” and “Dennis Felton”, I’d accuse you of looking it up. Felton didn’t even make it to February of the following season before being fired, by the way.
So Arkansas players rode around on yachts while Texas A&M players focused on trying to sneak into the Field of 68. Good for them. Differences in motivation are a big driver of results in bowl games and power conference tournaments.
But did this loss expose a concern for Arkansas moving forward? Possibly. The Aggies were whistled for 16 team fouls and allowed Arkansas to shoot 18 free throws. We discussed the implausibility of those numbers in the post-game notes, but I think it points to the type of game that is likely to end Arkansas’ NCAA Tournament. This team struggles to shoot — they rank 211th in the country in Effective Field Goal % — leaving them reliant on offensive rebounding, avoiding turnovers, and getting to the free throw line. If they can’t get to the foul line, I just don’t think the offense is good enough to keep them in the game.
On Saturday, the game effectively ended with 10 minutes left on this egregious sequence. I could see the life drain out of the Razorbacks in real time. The Hogs had trimmed the lead to 47-44, then the Aggies got it back out to 54-47, then this happened:
Tight whistle, loose whistle, slow whistle, doesn’t matter… that’s a foul. And a blatantly obvious one at that. How do you miss Aaron Cash bringing his arm down at a 45-degree angle? About three seconds after this clip ends, the Aggies drill a 3 to make it 57-47 and start the rout.
This is how the whole game was officiated. Jimmy Dykes spent way too long rambling about how Arkansas’ offense looked uncomfortable, but when the game is officiated like this, that plays a role. The Aggies are well-coached and playing with tremendous confidence, but the officiating played a part in shaking Arkansas’ confidence.
As we’ll see below, Jaylin Williams had a bad game. Another one. I don’t know exactly how much power Rick Barnes has in the college basketball world, but it is obviously a lot. Ever since his whiny rant about block-charge calls after the Arkansas-Tennessee game in Fayetteville, Williams has been officiated completely differently, and he’s lost his mojo as a result. At last check, he’s drawn just four charges since that game and twice as many blocks. He’s not doing anything different. The referees are. And when you watch sequences like the one above… are you surprised he was hesitant to put the ball on the floor and drive when he caught it in the high post?
Now, to be fair, Arkansas knows that it can’t shoot, so the Hogs are trying to draw fouls. Here’s Au’Diese Toney:
There’s clearly contact (watch the defender’s right hip), so the foul call is correct, but you can see that Toney is focused more on drawing contact than finishing. He probably could have gone for an and-one… but at the risk of not drawing a foul at all. But in a game where it was rare for the Hogs to draw fouls like this, the Hogs were left flailing more often than not.
The way this game was officiated meant that the only way to win was to make jump shots. The Aggies did, the Hogs didn’t. That isn’t how basketball should always be played, but that’s how this game was! And if the Hogs draw an NCAA tournament matchup that is played and officiated like this, then that’s probably where the ride will end.
Game Score
Oof! Stinky. The Hogs’ score of 18 is its second-worst of the season, ahead of only the Oklahoma game. Basically this game was Arkansas’ defense from the 81-68 loss to Mississippi State in Starkville and the offense from the 68-67 loss to Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Not ideal!
Team Stats
This is bad, but it’s not actually as discouraging as I thought it would be. Basically, Arkansas couldn’t buy an offensive rebound or a free throw and A&M shot lights out from 3. I mean, you knew that if you watched the game, but I’m relieved there’s not really anything else lurking underneath. Arkansas had some bad turnovers but a turnover rate of 21% isn’t atrocious against a quality turnover-forcing defense like A&M’s. The Hogs assisted on more than half their shots and shot a solid 57% inside the arc, despite “misses” like the one shown above.
The 17% from beyond the arc is just par for the course for this team. The lack of shooting will be its downfall. The Hogs have masked this weakness so far by being good with almost every other part of the game, but that broke down on Saturday. The Hogs can absolutely make a run without shooting lights out, but they need to avoid bad officiating and tighten up those three stats at the bottom.
Player Stats
The degree to which Texas A&M has spread out its production is really impressive. You could see this in the fact that five different players hit their first five 3-pointers. Quenton Jackson may be the engine that makes them go, but they have plenty of weapons.
For Arkansas, hmmmm, I’ll try and find the good news: this was KK Robinson’s best game as a Hog. He played four minutes and scored five points for a +3.3 game score and +1 plus-minus. Other than that, ugh. Chris Lykes had a wild two-game stretch, going from best Hog against LSU to worst Hog here. Jaylin’s issues have been discussed. He needs his mojo back, and Notae needs to avoid foul trouble.
Up Next
The Hogs will find out their NCAA tournament destination on Sunday night at 5 pm. Expect the Hogs to land a top-4 seed in back-to-back years for the first time since 1994 and 1995. These are special times to be a Hog fan.