NCAA Tournament: West region preview

Adam Ford

16 Mar, 2022

NCAA Tournament: West region preview

Welcome to March! The Hogs are in the West region, where Gonzaga is the headliner and the most likely Sweet 16 opponent should the Hogs make it that far. Here’s a quick look at the region.

Ranking the Teams

Here is every team in the region (including both 11 seeds), ranked by Adjusted Scoring Margin:

  • 1 Gonzaga
  • 2 Duke
  • 3 Texas Tech
  • 13 Vermont
  • 5 UConn
  • 9 Memphis
  • 4 Arkansas
  • 6 Alabama
  • 10 Davidson
  • 8 Boise State
  • 12 New Mexico State
  • 7 Michigan State
  • 11 Notre Dame
  • 14 Montana State
  • 11 Rutgers
  • 15 CSU Fullerton
  • 16 Georgia State

How about the Hogs’ draw? As we discussed in the preview, it’s hard for my model to deal with Vermont, a team that has mostly beat up on terrible teams and faced very few good ones. The Catamounts have played 33 games, but only four against top-100 offenses and four against top-100 defenses. They’ve played zero defenses in the top-50, which is where Arkansas’ is sitting comfortably right now.

Memphis also appears to be underrated. Penny Hardaway’s bunch flew under the radar after some early-season slip-ups but this is actually a good team. The Tigers play good defense and get extremely balanced scoring, making them difficult to beat. I’ve got them getting through Boise State, and it would not surprise me if they push Gonzaga.

Potential Upsets

I’m not necessarily picking these, but I think all of them could happen.

12 New Mexico State over 5 UConn

The Aggies have been to a lot of NCAA Tournaments but never managed to win a game. Marvin Menzies made five NCAA Tournaments in nine seasons from 2007 to 2016, then Paul Weir made one in his only season in 2017, and now Chris Jans is making his third in five seasons (and his team was undefeated in the WAC when the 2020 season was canceled due to COVID). Honestly, we don’t talk about this dynasty enough. The Aggies have gotten close a few times, pushing San Diego State to overtime in a 5/12 matchup several years ago. But their slow, deliberate offense that turns it over too much is just not well-suited to pulling upsets in March.

That said, this team has a trick up its sleeve. New Mexico State is a top-60 unit in the country in 3-point shooting, and 3-point defense is UConn’s biggest weakness. The Huskies rank 262nd in defending the long ball. UConn is also bad against off-ball guards, and New Mexico State’s top two players in terms of usage and BPM are off-ball guards. UConn’s overwhelming physicality (the Huskies are 2nd nationally in offensive rebounding) will probably be too much for New Mexico State, but if the Aggie shooters get hot, this one could absolutely happen.

13 Vermont over 4 Arkansas

Surely not! The Catamounts will be a darling upset pick, which isn’t a slight to Arkansas. Coach John Becker is 149-28 in America East play in his career and his team is making its fourth NCAA Tournament appearance under his watch. The Catamounts are extremely efficient on both ends of the floor and play with great fundamentals. But they suffer many of the same issues as New Mexico State. A very weak schedule has inflated their numbers, and we discussed in the matchup analysis, this season, that ultra-efficient offense hasn’t traveled against decent defenses.

Vermont’s offense is vulnerable against athletic perimeter defenses like Arkansas’ who can speed them up and prevent them from running their offense. And their defense doesn’t put much pressure on the ball, which is a huge danger given how athletic Arkansas’ guards are.

That said, Vermont can hit 3-pointers, and Arkansas has struggled to shoot this season. If the Hogs go cold or can’t draw fouls, or Vermont just gets hot, this upset could happen.

Either 11 seed over 6 Alabama

These two 11-seeds are very weak — honestly, neither should have made the tournament with Texas A&M being in the NIT — so this is a friendly matchup for the Tide. However, this an Alabama team with losses to Mizzou, Georgia, and Iona, so you can’t take them for granted in any game. Rutgers is offensively challenged, so an Alabama-Rutgers game is less dangerous, but Notre Dame is a jump-shooting team that could give Alabama’s poor defense some issues.

10 Davidson over 7 Michigan State

This is a really difficult matchup for Michigan State. Davidson has great numbers, but unlike Vermont, the Wildcats actually played a decent schedule to get those numbers. They have an elite offense and Michigan State has been pretty iffy all year.

Region Prediction

While I think Arkansas can get through Vermont, I don’t like the matchup with UConn, a team that can hit 3-pointers, crash the offensive glass, and bully you inside. The Hogs have won rockfights like that before, but it will be tough. Then Gonzaga is another bad matchup, with the Zags boasting their own Walker Kessler clone in Chet Holmgren but having much better guardplay than Auburn to back it up.

The Mike Krzyzewski farewell tour is happening on the other side of the bracket, but Duke has looked shaky in recent games. Coach K is an all-time great, but his best coaching work is long behind him. Texas Tech’s defense will Duke all kinds of issues. Tech has a nice path, with Montana State as a weak 14 and then Alabama as a weak 6 (or strong, depending on the day). I’ll take Gonzaga-Texas Tech for the Final Four.