Welcome to the 2022 Razorback Basketball Season Recap, Part 1. Today we are looking at individual stats. We’ll be using our analytical tools to evaluate each player’s season to see if we can learn more about this team.

We’ll be dealing with advanced stats. To keep this post from getting cluttered with numbers, I won’t be using any regular box score stats, like the kind you see on ESPN. Feel free to check that link or use your own sources if you want more context for things like points per game or rebounds or anything else. Those are important for understanding a player’s contribution, but we’re going to rely on our own in-house advanced stats as much as possible.

Individual Stats

Let’s start by looking at the three statistics we will use to evaluate individuals:

Box Plus Minus (BPM) is how we value the total box score contributions by a player. It takes everything in the box score (points, offensive rebounds, assists, turnovers, fouls, etc.) and runs it through a complicated set of formulas that returns the contribution of that player, which is defined as the net points per 100 possessions that player is contributing to the team. This number is adjusted for the quality of the team and its opponents, and the sum of all individual contributions is equal to the team’s Adjusted Scoring Margin. Since Arkansas has an ASM of +14.9, the sum of all individuals’ contributions will be equal to 14.9. While contribution is weighted by the number of minutes played, you can standardize each player’s contribution to a per-100-possession basis to create regressed BPM, which disregards differences in minutes played and thus is useful for identifying players who might should be playing more (or less).

BPM is fantastic at evaluating measurable contributions by a player, but its weakness is that it cannot measure the non-statistical contributions by a player, like individual defense.

Adjusted Plus Minus (APM) measures how good the team is while that player is on the floor. It takes actual plus-minus numbers for each player and adjusts them based on the quality of opponent faced on each possession. With APM, we can get team offensive and defensive efficiency numbers while that player is on the floor. APM can capture how good (or bad) a team is while a specific player is out there, but it is subject to coincidence and confounding variables since it does not take the individual stats of a player into account like BPM does.

Net Adjusted Plus Minus (NAPM) takes a player’s on-floor APM and off-floor APM and takes the difference. So if a team as an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 120 while a player is on the floor and 105 when he’s not, then his offense NAPM is +15, since his presence on the floor makes the offense 15 points better per 100 possessions than it is without him. This view of individual impact is more comprehensive than APM. In fact, I would argue this is probably the best overall view of how much a player contributes, especially if you supplement NAPM with BPM.

There will be more as we walk through it, but first, here’s the grand chart:

The green columns are BPM, the blue ones are APM, and the orange ones are NAPM. Let’s make these easier to look at.

The column labeled “BPM” is regressed BPM, which says ‘if everyone played the same number of minutes, who would contribute the most per 100 possessions?’ The second column actually takes the real number of minutes into account. So JD Notae would provide +6.9 points per 100 possessions when he’s actually on the floor, but since he was on the floor for only 79% of possessions this season, he contributed +5.4 points per 100 team possessions. Make sense?

Looking at BPM, Notae led the team at +6.9, followed by Jaylin Williams. No surprises there. Relative to the number of minutes played, the BPM algorithm doesn’t love Devo Davis (+0) or KK Robinson (-4.5), which means it thinks they should have played fewer minutes. It thinks a lot of Jaxson Robinson (+2.3) and Connor Vanover (+5.4). The Vanover issue is interesting, as BPM can’t measure Vanover’s struggles with individual defense. APM and NAPM should be able to, however, as we’ll see in a second, they don’t show the dropoff we’d expect.

The actual APM figure is the “On the Floor Margin” column near the middle. That tells you how good Arkansas was per 100 possessions while that player was on the floor. Vanover, Notae, and Williams are the top 3, while Johnson and the two Robinsons are the bottom 3.

This whole chart is interesting just to look it. For example, when Jaxson Robinson was in the game, the Hogs had its best offense (110.7) and worst defense (104.3). And the “off the floor” numbers are also fascinating. Look how valuable Notae and Jaylin were: when Notae was out, Arkansas’ team AOE was 89.4. For Jaylin, 95.0. No one else leaving made the offense worse than 104.6.

We can subtract the off-floor numbers from the on-floor numbers to get NAPM:

Check out that far-right column. That’s how much better (or worse) the Hogs became per 100 possessions when each player was in the game versus when he was out. Outside of Vanover’s weird numbers, everyone is negative except for Notae and Jaylin, who sit at +24.7 and +23.4. These numbers are per 100 possessions, but the average game has about 70 possessions, so against a perfectly average team, if JD Notae didn’t play, Arkansas gets about 17 points worse. 17 points worse when Notae is out. The same holds for Williams.

The other players are all negative because it didn’t really matter whether they were on or off: if Notae and Williams were on, the Hogs were golden. Off, they were in trouble.

So, how does adding about 17 points of value per game to the Hogs compare to other players on other teams? Well, here are the SEC leaders in NAPM, minimum 20% of team minutes played:

1. JD Notae +24.7
2. Quentin Millora-Brown +23.5
3. Jaylin Williams +23.4
4. Oscar Tshiebwe +21.0
5. Scotty Pippen Jr +19.4
6. Josiah-Jordan James +18.8
7. Tari Eason +16.2
8. Wendell Green Jr 11.7
9. TyTy Washington +11.4
10. Keon Ellis +10.6

I think the story of Arkansas’ season is how much milage the Hogs got out of their two best players. As will be evidenced by some of the team offensive stats to follow in the next post, the Hogs didn’t have a ton of options on offense. Notae wasn’t a very efficient scorer, but game in and game out, he was the best option. Williams isn’t really a high volume player, but he was Arkansas’ most valuable defender and second-most valuable offensive option.

Among the eight players that finished the season in the regular rotation, Notae and Williams finished 1st-2nd in BPM, 1st-2nd in on-floor offensive efficiency, 1st-2nd in on-floor defensive efficiency, 1st-2nd in APM, and 1st-2nd in NAPM.

Okay, let’s recap each player’s season, with their ranks for each stat out of 11 players. Players are recapped in order by Contribution.

JD Notae

Point Guard, 6’1, Senior (transfer from Jacksonville)

• Contribution: 1st
• Offense BPM: 2nd
• Defense BPM: 2nd
• BPM: 1st
• On-floor team offense: 2nd
• On-floor team defense: 3rd
• On-floor team total (APM): 2nd
• Offense NAPM: 1st
• Defense NAPM: 3rd
• NAPM: 1st

What else can you say about Notae? Lightly recruited out of high school in Georgia, he proved everyone wrong first at Jacksonville, and then in Fayetteville. He wasn’t very efficient on offense, but the fact that he led the SEC in NAPM shows you how much better he made everyone around him. When he left, everyone else got worse, especially on offense.

What’s next for JD? I’m not sure what’s next for Notae. He has another year of eligibility. If he does return, his role on next year’s team will look very different. The Hogs are adding some much-needed offensive firepower, so at a minimum he’d be shooting a lot less, though he’d still be the guy keying the attack. If he truly wants to play professionally, then he should probably leave, as I’m not sure he can do much else to improve his prospects as a college player.

Jaylin Williams

Power Forward, 6’10, Sophomore

• Contribution: 2nd
• Offense BPM: 5th
• Defense BPM: 1st
• BPM: 2nd
• On-floor team offense: 4th
• On-floor team defense: 2nd
• On-floor team total (APM): 3rd
• Offense NAPM: 2nd
• Defense NAPM: 1st
• NAPM: 2nd

No Razorback took a bigger step forward from last year to this year than Jaylin Williams. He showcased a variety of offensive moves, improved as a screener, and showed a basketball IQ that’s off the charts. He keyed Arkansas’ defense and was instrumental to Arkansas’ massive improvement in perimeter defense over the course of the year, as defenders on the perimeter could guard confidently knowing that Williams was in the right spot behind them.

What’s next for Jaylin? NBA scouts are interested in Williams for his ability as a screener. His jump shot improved this year but isn’t quite at the level where it needs to be, so that will hold him back. So will his physical defense. While his ability to be the defensive “captain” was valuable for the Hogs, his actual physical defensive skill isn’t elite. We’ll probably learn soon, but I’d lean towards him returning, while not being surprised if he decided to leave.

Stanley Umude

Combo Guard, 6’6, Grad Senior (transfer from South Dakota)

• Contribution: 3rd
• Offense BPM: 3rd
• Defense BPM: 3rd
• BPM: 4th
• On-floor team offense: 6th
• On-floor team defense: 7th
• On-floor team total (APM): 6th
• Offense NAPM: 6th
• Defense NAPM: 9th
• NAPM: 4th

Umude had an interesting year in his only season as a Hog. He shot 37 percent from beyond the arc, but was somewhat streaky and didn’t have the volume fans expected when they heard the Hogs had added a guy who averaged more than 20 points a game at South Dakota. Still, he definitely counts as a “win” in terms of evaluation for the Arkansas staff as a grad transfer. He was an important part of the team’s run.

He offered more as an offensive player than as a defensive one, although it seems his main strength was being decent at both ends. He didn’t turn it over as much as Devo Davis and offered more in terms of box score contributions, so that probably explains why he played so much more than Davis despite worse APM and NAPM numbers.

Au’Diese Toney

Combo Guard, 6’6, Senior (transfer from Pitt)

• Contribution: 4th
• Offense BPM: 6th
• Defense BPM: 11th
• BPM: 6th
• On-floor team offense: 7th
• On-floor team defense: 3rd
• On-floor team total (APM): 4th
• Offense NAPM: 8th
• Defense NAPM: 4th
• NAPM: 6th

On one hand, I think these numbers understate Toney’s defensive contributions. On the other, these are all-season numbers, and while his incredible work against the likes of Andrew Nembhard and Santiago Vescovi is fresh in our minds, he only carved out his role as a super perimeter defender over the course of the season. It took time for him to find that role.

My only complaint with Toney is that he struggled to finish at the rim and never looked comfortable as a jump shooter. I expected him to be a more fluid offensive player and he really wasn’t. I’d love if he’d figure out just one or two offensive moves, like Trey Wade and his corner 3s, that he could use as a complement to his defense.

What’s next for Au’Diese? Toney can come back if he wants, and I think it would be incredible for Arkansas’ prospects if he came back. He’d offer a veteran presence to young combo guards, and he could build on his defensive reputation. He’d be up for every preseason award for defense in the country.

Chris Lykes

Point Guard, 5’7, Grad Senior (transfer from Miami)

• Contribution: 5th
• Offense BPM: 8th
• Defense BPM: 4th
• BPM: 7th
• On-floor team offense: 8th
• On-floor team defense: 7th
• On-floor team total (APM): 8th
• Offense NAPM: 7th
• Defense NAPM: 7th
• NAPM: 7th

After the Kansas State game, I spent the rest of the season thinking about this tweet:

I bookmarked the tweet and added my own thoughts back at the time:

Seeing a lot of these takes. I actually get the premise that Lykes isn’t enough of a creator, but he just sealed the game by going 10/10 at the line with no turnovers down the stretch.

I want to see how he does in an actual close game before I decide whether I agree with this https://t.co/yH7UFGqwT4

— Adam Ford (@AdamFord92) November 23, 2021

After an entire season of looking at the numbers and watching Lykes play, I’m ready to say: Jonathon Warriner’s original tweet was correct. Lykes is very talented. His ability to hit clutch free throws in the late-game was incredibly valuable, but Arkansas’ season improved significantly when Lykes stopped playing major minutes. Calling him a “losing basketball player” is a bit harsh, but not entirely wrong.

Credit to Warriner that he was able to see it even when Lykes was helping Arkansas win a game (going 10 of 10 from the line down the stretch against Kansas State). And yes, Arkansas fans piled on the ESPN2 announcers for pointing out that Lykes really doesn’t play winning basketball despite his free throw shooting, but those announcers — while I think they went overboard — were not completely wrong:

Lykes was responsible for the two dumbest plays by any Razorback this season: first, his 3-point attempt with 25 seconds left and the shot clock off when Arkansas led Mississippi State 58-54. He made it, but it was really dumb, because missing it was State’s only chance. Had he just held the ball and made free throws, a win was guaranteed.

But nothing will top that shot attempt with 10 seconds left in the first half against Duke. Giving the other team a chance to hit a 3 at the buzzer is such bad basketball. It’s inexcusable. It is, as Warriner said, losing basketball.

That said, he went 13 of 13 from the line in the NCAA Tournament, including 11 for 11 over three games that Arkansas won by a combined 15 points. Having someone that reliable is incredibly valuable. He was an important part of the team and I thank him for his contribution. In the end I do wonder if maybe some of his minutes in SEC play should have gone to KK Robinson.

Trey Wade

Small Forward, 6’6, Grad Senior (transfer from Wichita State)

• Contribution: 6th
• Offense BPM: 7th
• Defense BPM: 9th
• BPM: 8th
• On-floor team offense: 9th
• On-floor team defense: 5th
• On-floor team total (APM): 7th
• Offense NAPM: 9th
• Defense NAPM: 5th
• NAPM: 9th

Wade was easily the least-heralded of the four grad transfers. If he played a minor, off-the-bench role at Wichita State, how did he expect to get minutes at Arkansas? But he absolutely earned his minutes. The background of his stat profile is basically the anti-Vanover: he barely played against the non-conference cupcakes, so everything he earned he earned against top competition after the staff switched up the lineups in mid-January. Both APM and NAPM peg him as Arkansas’ fifth-best defender (fourth if you don’t count Vanover), which seems about right.

Though his offense ranks near the bottom of the team, he’ll live forever in Razorback lore for his 15-point, 7-rebound game in the Sweet 16 against Gonzaga, a game in which he also guarded Chet Holmgren, who had about six inches on him.

Connor Vanover

Center, 7’3, Junior (transfer from Cal)

• Contribution: 7th
• Offense BPM: 1st
• Defense BPM: 6th
• BPM: 3rd
• On-floor team offense: 3rd
• On-floor team defense: 1st
• On-floor team total (APM): 1st
• Offense NAPM: 3rd
• Defense NAPM: 2nd
• NAPM: 3rd

Ah yes, Vanover the mystery. His limitations are obvious for anyone who watches him… or are they? The analytics say it’s a crime that Vanover didn’t play more this year. He’s 3rd in BPM, 1st in APM, and 3rd in NAPM. Arkansas played its best defense when he was on the floor (88.1). Now, here’s some context: against two of the three major conference opponents he played more than four minutes against (Oklahoma and Mississippi State), the Hogs were minus-17 in 11 total minutes with him on the floor. He had a negative APM in both games; his only two negative APMs in all games with 4+ minutes played.

Of course, he also was +8.5 (APM) against Kansas State, +7.4 against MVC champ Northern Iowa, and +5.1 against Cincinnati.

But he did not record a minute after the South Carolina game on January 18th. That means he didn’t play in 20+ point blowouts of Mizzou (the second one) and Georgia. He didn’t just get benched, he got punished. Walk-ons got minutes after he played his final one.

Part of his problem is that he plays the same position as Jaylin Williams, and he’s absolutely not more valuable than Williams, as the NAPM numbers show. It’s just weird that he was allowed to wreak havoc all over weak non-conference opponents only to be totally shut down once conference play began.

What’s next for Connor? I cannot imagine he returns. He’d be a nice fit at UCA, where his brother played.

Jaxson Robinson

Combo Guard, 6’6, Sophomore (transfer from Texas A&M)

• Contribution: 8th
• Offense BPM: 4th
• Defense BPM: 11th
• BPM: 5th
• On-floor team offense: 1st
• On-floor team defense: 11th
• On-floor team total (APM): 8th
• Offense NAPM: 4th
• Defense NAPM: 11th
• NAPM: 8th

Robinson took us on a ride in his limited minutes. Since BPM is better at measuring offensive contributions (since most stats, like field goals and free throws, are offensive), BPM thought Robinson deserved more minutes, while he ranked 8th in both APM and NAPM. I think there’s general agreement that he was one of Arkansas’ best offensive players… but the worst defender on the team by a huge margin, ranking dead last in Defense BPM, on-floor team defense, and Defense NAPM.

His shot is smooth, but the percentages weren’t jaw-dropping, which is why the staff largely gave up on him early in conference play and he didn’t crack the final 8-man rotation despite all three metrics agreeing that he was a top-8 player.

What’s next for Jaxson? If he can shoot around 40% from beyond the arc and improve his defense to just replacement levels, there’s absolutely a role for him on future teams. He’s got a lot of talent, but this year’s team had to play on eggshells because Musselman knew he could not afford to have anything other than a great defense. I think Robinson hangs around and waits for an opportunity, and I think there’s a good chance he gets it.

Kamani Johnson

Center, 6’7, Junior (transfer from Little Rock)

• Contribution: 9th
• Offense BPM: 9th
• Defense BPM: 5th
• BPM: 9th
• On-floor team offense: 10th
• On-floor team defense: 9th
• On-floor team total (APM): 10th
• Offense NAPM: 11th
• Defense NAPM: 10th
• NAPM: 11th

Johnson’s role on the 2022 team was carved out due to the fact that he is 6’8 and Arkansas had limited options at the 4 and 5. He’s actually a decent defender, but the main reason his NAPM is so bad is that many of his minutes came when he was replacing Jaylin Williams in the lineup. So most of his minutes are with no Williams on the floor, and we’ve looked at the numbers to what happened to Arkansas when Williams wasn’t on the floor.

What’s next for Kamani? Depending on what Arkansas does in the portal, Johnson could have a role on next year’s team. He’s not an elite player, but his physicality allows him a small role, even if its just giving someone else a few minutes of rest per game.

Davonte Davis

Shooting Guard, 6’4, Sophomore

• Contribution: 10th
• Offense BPM: 10th
• Defense BPM: 7th
• BPM: 10th
• On-floor team offense: 5th
• On-floor team defense: 6th
• On-floor team total (APM): 5th
• Offense NAPM: 5th
• Defense NAPM: 6th
• NAPM: 4th

Now this is what the statistical profile of a glue guy looks like. His boxscore contributions were unimpressive — his BPM of +0.0 means he didn’t make Arkansas any better with his stats — but Arkansas was a better team when Devo Davis was on the floor.

Davis didn’t shoot great and turned it over too much, especially for his role on the team (the BPM formula punishes low-usage players more severely when they miss a shot or turn the ball over). But if you actually watch him play, you can see that he kept the offense and defense moving with his athleticism and confidence. APM and NAPM are able to pick that up: Arkansas was better when he was out there, even if there’s not a statistical way to say how.

What’s next for Devo? Devo has a potential role problem coming up. He’s best as an off-ball guard, but he’s not tall enough to be a 3, and not a good enough jump shooter to get minutes over a guy like Nick Smith who is basically guaranteed to dominate minutes at the 2 from the time he steps on campus. And with other guys like Derrian Ford and Jaxson Robinson making a case for minutes as well at the shooting guard position, Devo finds himself needed to either significantly improve as a jump shooter or complete a transition into a true point guard. He’s played point a lot over the last couple seasons, but he hasn’t been a consistent enough distributor to this point. I’m very interested to see how he improves this offseason.

KK Robinson

Point Guard, 6’0, Sophomore

• Contribution: 11th
• Offense BPM: 11th
• Defense BPM: 8th
• BPM: 11th
• On-floor team offense: 11th
• On-floor team defense: 10th
• On-floor team total (APM): 11th
• Offense NAPM: 10th
• Defense NAPM: 9th
• NAPM: 10th

Robinson has the smallest sample size of the 11 Hogs recapped here: he played just 6% of team minutes this year, and a decent chunk of them came in the sloppy play that is typical of the end of the a double-digit victory. So it’s important to keep that in mind as you see these numbers. That said, it’s not entirely unreasonable for Hog fans to have wished to see KK play more significant minutes.

What’s next for KK? Rumors circulated last offseason that he might transfer, but he ended up staying. Those rumors will probably circulate again, but I don’t know what he’s thinking or what the staff has told him about his role. If Notae leaves and the Hogs don’t get 5-star point guard Anthony Black (EDIT: the Hogs got Anthony Black), then he might be in play for significant minutes at point guard next year.

Up Next

Stay tuned for Part II, which will focus on team stats and performance.

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