This is the second post in our season preview series. You can check out Part I here.

Arkansas’ offense broke out in 2021, seamlessly transitioning from Feleipe Franks to KJ Jefferson behind center and boasting the best rushing attack in several years in Fayetteville.

Now, to build on it. The Hogs were good — but not elite — on offense, and there are a number of places where we could see growth in 2022. Explosiveness remains the offense’s calling card, as we discussed in Part I:

I don’t know whether Sam Pittman and his staff read all the modern analytics, but his teams in both 2020 and 2021 were very good at exactly what modern analytics says you need to do: the offense created big plays and defense didn’t allow very many.

The Hogs ranked 21st in total offensive explosiveness last season: 18th when passing and 32nd when rushing. The metric I’m using to measure explosiveness here is gini coefficient of successful plays, but if you used something simpler like yards per successful play you’d end up with similar rankings.

And yet, there’s a lot to work on: the offensive line wasn’t amazing, and as good as Jefferson was on early downs, the Hogs’ offense still struggled a bit when it fell behind the sticks.

Total offense

NOTE: All rankings are out of 130 FBS teams.

The Hog offense ranked 24th in the nation in terms of EPA+ per play (check out the glossary if any stat terms are confusing). As you can see, the offense as a whole was more explosive than efficient. One isn’t really better than another: explosiveness is highly correlated to winning, but efficiency is highly correlated to creating explosiveness. Medium-efficiency, high-explosiveness teams like Arkansas have a thinner margin for error if the opponent is good at preventing explosive plays, but they also give themselves a much better chance in an evenly-matched game due to their ability to suddenly flip momentum in their favor.

In terms of standard downs versus passing downs, the Hogs were much better all-around on standard downs, ranking 15th in SD EPA+ compared to 60th in PD EPA+. The Hogs created most of their big plays on early downs. Improved passing downs performance is a big way that Jefferson can improve as a passer as the Hogs were basically average or slightly below average when forced to pass.

Rushing

The 2021 rushing attack was… not all that great. You probably didn’t get that from the eye test, but that’s what the numbers say. It was used at high volume (Hogs were 19th in run rate on early downs) and was good enough to open up opportunities for big pass plays, which was its purpose. And it was decently explosive. But if it can take a big step forward in 2022, Arkansas’ offense will be that much better.

The main reason for optimism here is the offensive line returning four starters. Here how that unit performed as a whole in 2021:

One way to distinguish between responsibilities of the line and the running backs is to take four stats, each one with increasing responsibility assigned to the backs:

1. Stuffed %: percentage of run plays where the back is tackled for no gain or a loss, this is 100% on the line
2. Line Yards per Rush: an adjusted yards-per-carry metric that assigns the first six yards of any run play, this is about 90% on the offensive line
3. Opportunity %: percentage of run plays that gain 6+ yards, this is about 50-50 between the blockers and the runner
4. Bonus Yards per Opportunity: yards per carry beyond six on any opportunity run, this is 100% on the running back

Arkansas’ ranking for these four stats in order were 77th > 69th > 58th > 47th. That they got increasingly better as more running back responsibility was added in suggests that Arkansas’ running backs were much better than their run blocking.

This is where the four returning starters can play a big factor. I would expect the Hogs to be better in 2022, especially in those first couple of stats.

Passing

The high-volume run game ultimately served to set up the passing attack, which delivered beautifully in 2021. Not only did Jefferson and his receiving group hit big plays galore, Jefferson also broke the single-season school record for completion percentage.

Obviously, the big issue here is replacing Treylon Burks. Burks had about 75 targets in 11 regular-season FBS games; the next two guys (Warren Thompson and De’Vion Warren) combined for 54. Thompson will be expected to carry a bigger load, but it’s Ketron Jackson and OU transfer Jadon Haselwood that should be the group leaders, along with a bigger role for flex tight end Trey Knox. The talent is there, but can any of these guys take the top off the defense the way Burks did? That’s the big question for this group.

10 Names to Know

Here are 10 names to know on offense heading into the season:

1. KJ Jefferson. Duh. The star quarterback for the Hogs made the increasingly-rare decision to stick with his school even after his coach was fired and the new one brought in a transfer, and it’s paid off nicely. Jefferson’s ability to generate big plays remains his calling card, but if he can improve his efficiency in passing situations, the Hogs will be that much better.
2. Rocket Sanders. Sanders took on a bigger role as the season wore on and led the team in rushing over the final nine games. Now he’s the clear backfield leader. He’s an ideal early-down back, with a good downhill running style, breakaway speed, and excellent receiving skills. The Hogs like to rotate backs to keep them fresh, but 1,250+ yards of total offense this season isn’t out of the question if he plays at a high level.
3. Jadon Haselwood. The former 5-star recruit had more than 700 receiving yards in three seasons at OU but never quite met his potential. Now he’s tasked with being the top deep threat and being the main replacement for Treylon Burks. Those are some big shoes. If he’s up to the task, the offense’s biggest question mark is answered.
4. Luke Jones. The former 4-star recruit from Pulaski Academy left his home state to play at Notre Dame, but he’s been back in Fayetteville since 2019, though he’s primarily played special teams to this point. He’s the leader to replace Myron Cunningham at left tackle in what will be the only starting lineup change from 2021 to 2022 on the offensive line. Cunningham was solid but not irreplaceable, and Jones appears to be getting first crack at replacing him.
5. Matt Landers. A deep threat specialist at Toledo, Landers could play a key role in replacing Burks. He had more than 500 yards and more than 25 yards per catch for the Rockets last year.
6. Ricky Stromberg. The senior has been a rock in the middle of the line for three years, and now he’s getting the much-deserved attention, seeing his name on preseason all-SEC lists. Arkansas’ run-blocking was merely decent last year, and Stromberg is the leader in helping it take the next step.
7. Malik Hornsby. The backup quarterback is easy to overlook but always belongs on a list like this. Hornsby might get some snaps at receiver and could show up in some wildcat packages, but his most important role is being Jefferson’s backup. He has blazing speed and can make things happen with his legs, but to this point, he’s been very limited as a passer, and that’s being generous. Does Arkansas still have a chance to win a big game if Jefferson gets injured early?
8. Trey Knox. Knox created a whole new page of the playbook after he moved to a hybrid tight end position last year. Kendal Briles’ offense prefers big tight ends who are extra run blockers, but Briles demonstrated the kind of flexibility you need to succeed at a high level of coaching by finding a way to get Knox on the field. At his best, Knox is a guaranteed chain-mover who can help his quarterback avoid sacks or dangerous throws.
9. Dominique Johnson. While Sanders figures in as the early-down back, Johnson is a good third-down back, given his strengths in short-yardage and pass protection. His powerful running style gets more effective as the game goes on. He’s starting the season injured, so how quickly he can get to 100% will go a long way in determining how well the offense does over the first couple of games.
10. Dalton Wagner. Wagner is a somewhat surprising returner for his sixth year. He’s battled injuries and poor play over his time in Fayetteville, but he was decent at right tackle last season. He needs to stay healthy and make marginal improvements to his game.

Grading the Hogs

Let’s grade the 2021 offense and project the 2022 offense here.

• QB: B+ to A-
• RB: B to B+
• WR: A- to B-
• OL: C+ to B
• Overall: B to B+

What do we think? Is a small step forward a reasonable expectation?

With the high turnover on the defense, the offense needs to get off to a fast start. There are no “tune-up” games to open the season this year, so the team has to be sharp out of the gates against Cincinnati and South Carolina, and on paper, the offense seems better positioned to open the season strong.

Our next post will take a look at the defense.