A top-10 team hadn’t lost to an FCS team since Appalachian State beat Michigan in 2007. It didn’t happen Saturday in Fayetteville, but Hog fans had plenty to reasons to be nervous as Arkansas escaped Missouri State, 38-27.
After rallying from a 17-0 deficit only to fall behind 27-17 in the fourth quarter, the Hogs took their first lead with nine minutes left on an 82-yard punt return by Bryce Stephens. After one final defensive stop, the Hogs closed things out with an 80-yard, five-minute touchdown drive to provide the final margin.
Arkansas finished with 597 yards of total offense (the final kneeldown knocked the offense under 600) on just 66 plays. KJ Jefferson threw for a career-high 385 yards, and the Hogs needed each of them. Rocket Sanders finished with 167 rushing yards and 75 receiving yards, scoring two total touchdowns.
The Hogs trailed 17-0 early in the second quarter thanks to an absolutely disastrous start in all phases of the game, including two fumbles and some really bad play in the secondary. After calming down, Arkansas narrowed the deficit to 17-14 at halftime and then tied it at 17 midway through the third quarter. But things didn’t get easy after that. The Bears mounted two scoring drives to make it 27-17 with 12 minutes left. But the offense roared to life, thanks to a 73-yard touchdown pass from Jefferson to Sanders on a shovel, and then the punt return to take the lead. The final nail in the coffin came when Jefferson found Trey Knox for a 21-yard gain on 3rd and 12 during the final drive. That was a heck of a throw and catch.
The Hogs’ secondary – playing again without Myles Slusher – was shredded by Bears QB Jason Shelley, who finished with 357 passing yards. But while the Hogs’ secondary was mostly inept, the front saved the day, recording eight sacks to bring the season-total to an SEC-best 17. Jordan Domineck had two sacks, Drew Sanders was credited with two and a half, and Zach Williams also had two.
What went wrong?
Some initial thoughts on why this game went the way it did.
Motivation gap. I believe Arkansas scheduled this game before Missouri State hired Bobby Petrino, and the Hogs should have bought out of this deal. The Hogs are in between SEC games and were looking forward to a breather, while the Bears were extremely motivated to win for their coach in his return to Fayetteville. This is a case of bad scheduling.
Bad turnovers luck. All upsets require a ton of luck. Appalachian State had an entirely-unsustainable third down conversion percentage last week against Texas A&M, for example. Turnovers were the luck factor in this game. Arkansas losing the turnover battle 3-0 is insanely unlucky: play this game 100 times in 100 parallel universes, and this one is probably the only one where the Hogs go minus-3. Jefferson and Sanders rarely fumble, and the interception bounced off Knox’s hands. Meanwhile, both Latavious Brini and Hudson Clark dropped interceptions for the Hogs, and Missouri State not fumbling at all is just plain lucky, especially given that they lost two fumbles a couple weeks ago against UCA. Motivation could have played a role in lax ball security, but I think this was just some old-fashioned bad luck.
Bad defensive gameplan. Giving up a touchdown on a 4th-and-1 to make it 24-17 in the third quarter made it clear that Arkansas didn’t watch much Bobby Petrino film. Arkansas scored a touchdown on an almost-identical play in 2010 at Georgia (Ryan Mallett to Chris Gragg), also on a 4th-and-1. Petrino had called the same play two years before – in 2008 – against Louisiana-Monroe. I’m sure he’s called it at Louisville and maybe even Missouri State since. Not being prepared for the basic stuff that Missouri State was bringing was bad coaching.
Good defensive gameplan by Missouri State. Arkansas’ offense totaled 597 yards and more than eight yards per play, so I can’t complain too much. The three turnovers were mostly luck and that was the biggest complaint. But Arkansas still had several bad drives despite the yards. Missouri State had a nice defensive gameplan that limited Arkansas’ efficiency. The Bears used their defensive tackles and linebackers to set the pocket and keep Jefferson in it. When he tried to scramble, they collapsed on him every time. The Hogs could have countered by finding the running backs in the passing game, but they didn’t do it until the fourth-quarter, when Kendal Briles finally called a shovel pass and it went for a game-changing touchdown. Overall, I came away more impressed with Missouri State’s front and less impressed with their secondary than I was in the matchup analysis.
As bad as this game was, it’s over and it’s a win. That’s what matters. Each game is different. It would have been nice to give Sanders and Jefferson a breather and get an extended look at Malik Hornsby and Rashod Dubinion, but the opportunity has passed.
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