The Razorbacks limped to 3-0 with an uninspired win over the Fighting Petrinos of Missouri State. The good news (for me, anyway) is that after reviewing the advanced stats, the opinion I had for the instant analysis is still what I agree with: this game was a combination of a big motivation gap and some bad luck, not a canary in the coalmine. I didn’t see any red flags beyond what we already knew; namely, that the secondary needs work. I don’t think this will be some kind of turning point that exposed this team and drives them to a bad season.
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
Let’s begin with a quick recap of what we saw.
The Good
Matt Landers. Sam Pittman said Landers was really bothered by his drop against South Carolina and wanted to make up for it. And he did. He caught six of seven targets for 121 yards. He’s already developed a nice rapport with KJ Jefferson. I don’t want to be too confident, but I will say this: rewatching each game, Arkansas has had receivers running wide open on almost every play. There’s no Treylon Burks, but this is a deeper receiving corps than last year.
Drew Sanders. Sanders was incredible again, with 11 tackles and 2.5 sacks. He now leads the FBS in sacks and the Hogs lead the nation in sacks as a team. Wild.
The Bad
Unprepared and unmotivated. As I wrote after the game, Arkansas probably should have bought out of this game. Missouri State played an almost-perfect game and looked way more jacked up to be there and play their best for their former coach. An ESPN writer gave the Razorbacks a pass for what she called an “awkward opponent”, which sums it up nicely.
The secondary. Dwight McGlothern and Hudson Clark mostly held their own, but Missouri State repeatedly attacked the rest of Arkansas’ secondary. Throwbacks into the flats forced missed tackles constantly (something we warned about in the matchup analysis). Bumper Pool had an uncharacteristically-bad game with several missed tackles.
The Ugly
The implications. I was actually still pretty confident when it was 27-17, but was anybody out there wondering where this loss would rank in the last decade of embarrassment? I saw several claims on Twitter that this would be worse than any of the others: worse than UL Monroe, Toledo, North Texas, San Jose State, and Western Kentucky? Just because it was Bobby Petrino and just because it felt like Razorback Nation was past having to worry about that. Anyway.
Recent posts
- Box Score Breakdown: Arkansas 76, Lipscomb 60
- Box Score Breakdown: Ole Miss 63, Arkansas 31
- Matchup Analysis: Ole Miss
- Box Score Breakdown: Arkansas 58, Mississippi State 25
- Matchup Analysis: Mississippi State
Grading the Hogs
No team performance grades for FCS opponents, so we’ll just do subjective letter grades this time.
- QB: B+
- RB: B+
- WR: B
- OL: B-
- Offense: B
No one on offense gets an A because Arkansas had 14 points at halftime and needed a special teams touchdown to finally take the lead. But Jefferson was really sharp outside of the fumble (the interception was obviously not his fault), and the receivers were really good outside of a couple drops. The offensive line protected really well but there really weren’t a ton of holes in the run game. Rocket Sanders played great except for a fumble.
- DL: B-
- LB: B-
- DB: F
- Defense: D+
If you were thinking an F overall, the advanced stats bear out the somewhat fluky nature of this game. The Hogs got a solid pass rush and contained the run, hence the high scores for DL and LB. Pool’s bad game was canceled out by Sanders’ good game. The secondary was obviously a mess, hence the low score. The Bears had around 200 yards after the catch, which is typical for a Bobby Petrino offense, but not ideal against Petrino coaching an FCS team. Missed tackles are going to be an issue if Arkansas doesn’t get that cleaned up. The expected return of Myles Slusher next week should help.
Advanced Stats
Confused by any of the advanced stats you see here? Be sure to check out the glossary.
Arkansas had 597 yards of offense, mostly because they had to gain that much to win. Arkansas’ 12 drives mostly started deep in their own territory, so there were a ton of yards to be had. I don’t track average starting field position, but I plan to start soon because I think it would tell a big story. The Hogs only started one drive past their own 30 all game.
So the offensive numbers are fine, but not great considering the opponent. The obscene turnover rate was the biggest issue – as I wrote in the instant analysis, that was mostly bad luck. The success rate of 43% is lower than what we’d like to see, but the offense made up for it with explosive plays.
On the other side, the Bears hit their big plays, as expected for a Petrino-coached team. That and not turning it over (again, bad luck) is how the Bears produced 27 points.
That passing downs success rate of 30% is really bad against an FCS team, and really the only red flag I take away from the offense in this game. As we’ve seen for two-plus seasons under Kendal Briles, the Hogs did big numbers when passing on early downs, but were inefficient when falling off schedule.
All the defense could really do was unleverage the Bears with sacks. Missouri State spent 43% of their snaps behind the chains, and while they seemed comfortable, that’s not a sustainable formula, and it bit them in the end when the relentless Hog passrush finally wore them out.
Two lost fumbles – including one at the goal line – is why that EPA/Rush number is red. But 41% rushing success against an FCS defense is yucky. The Hogs could get yards all game – just 5% of runs were stuffed – but big runs were hard to come by. A 24% opportunity rate and 5% stuff rate means that 71% of runs gained between one and five yards. The few big ones went for huge gains, but that was not ideal.
The defense mostly contained the run outside of one big scramble by Jason Shelley, and again, the sacks are what saved the defense’s bacon.
Individuals
- KJ Jefferson: +6 EPA Total, +16 EPA Passing, -10 EPA Rushing
- Rocket Sanders: +7 EPA Total, +1 EPA Rushing, +6 EPA Receiving
- Matt Landers: +7 EPA Total (all receiving)
- Jadon Haselwood: +8 EPA Total (all receiving)
Nothing deeper to dive into here, and we don’t have individual stats for FCS teams. Jefferson struggled to run as Missouri State spied on him the whole game. They wanted him to win with his arm, and he did. Other opponents will likely try the same strategy, especially if they can contain the Arkansas run game with six in the box the way Missouri State did. The Hogs will need to continue to be aggressive through the air on early downs to keep opponents on their heels.
Up Next
The Hogs head to Arlington to take on the Fightin’ Texas Aggies, who are 2-1 after a nice bounceback win over Miami. The Aggies were very unimpressive in that win, but then again, Arkansas can’t really make fun of them for that after what we just watched.
The latest from Fayette Villains, straight to your inbox
Enter your email to subscribe and receive new post alerts and other updates. You can unsubscribe at any time.