Fayette Villains

It’s a new week. Hope springs eternal. Can the Hogs beat 2nd-ranked Alabama? The answer, of course, is that anything can happen! I mean, if a field goal sneaks inside the upright instead of bouncing off of it, every fan in the state would be believing the Hogs could win this one too.

Meet the Tide

Confused by any of the advanced stats you see here? Be sure to check out the glossary.

Alabama has been a model of stability during a time period of major instability in Fayetteville. Arkansas’ last win over the Crimson Tide came in 2006, when the Hogs beat Mike Shula’s last team 24-23 in double-overtime in Fayetteville, the infamous Leigh Tiffin game.

The current losing streak started with Nick Saban’s first team, which beat the Hogs 41-38 in Tuscaloosa in 2007. Since then, the Hogs have had six full-time head coaches (Houston Nutt, Bobby Petrino, John L. Smith, Bret Bielema, Chad Morris, Sam Pittman) and two interims (Reggie Herring, Barry Lunney Jr.). Saban won his first title with the Tide in 2009 and then won again in 2011, 2012, 2015, 2017, and 2020. The Hogs have not beaten Alabama during that span.

Model pick: Alabama 42, Arkansas 21. Ugh.

All 2021 data is now gone; all stats and rankings now come from 2022 data in FBS-versus-FBS games. The data thinks Arkansas’ schedule is solid (31st), but doesn’t think any of the teams the Hogs have faced are particularly good. Alabama, on the other hand, looks dominant despite a weak schedule, as our model says they would beat a perfectly average FBS team by a score of 41-13.

Scouting Report

Alabama’s offense is solid, but the rebuilding Tide receiving corps is a relative weakness. Big plays in the passing game that have been a feature over the last couple of years just aren’t there. The Tide’s offensive line is also merely average. Alabama’s run game does generate some explosive runs, but Bryce Young’s precision passing is keeping the offense moving right now.

Alabama’s defense is off to a hot start and looks really good. The Tide are elite against the run and get after the passer really well. Their back end is good but not dominant. The only mark against them is that they do not force many turnovers at all.

Three Names to Know

Will Anderson. The main pass rusher and outside linebacker was a Heisman finalist last season. He’s off last year’s pace, but still has 4.5 sacks and a pick-six. If allowed to tee off on the rush, he can make life miserable for a dropback passer.
Bryce Young. Young’s elite receivers from last year are gone, and he’s having to work with a group that is less athletic and less, well, dominant. He’s very accurate, slippery enough to avoid pressure, and smart enough to avoid major mistakes.
Jahmyr Gibbs. The Georgia Tech transfer came in as an all-purpose back to help give the Tide a unique attack. He’s mostly unimpressive as a runner, but he’s about as good a receiving back as you’ll find in the nation. He has 17 catches for 187 yards and three touchdowns through four games. The Hogs have had issues covering backs out of the backfield, so this should be interesting.

When Alabama has the ball

Alabama isn’t overly explosive so far this year, but they are very efficient and cash in scoring opportunities when they get them. The Hogs are simply bad right now, with no clear strengths outside of forcing turnovers: and the Hogs haven’t forced one in the last two games.

Alabama likes to come out throwing on early downs (just 51% standard downs run rate). Young is very accurate on quick passes and throws to the backs, which helps the Tide stay leveraged. Alabama rarely falls behind the chains and does well on third down. They are susceptible to negative plays, particularly in the run game.

Arkansas generally does okay on early downs and forces some negative plays, but it’s been for naught this year as the Hogs have been torched on passing downs. It’s interesting that opponents have had trouble throwing on the Hogs on early downs (due largely to sacks). I do wonder if Alabama will go with a more conservative, run-heavy strategy on early downs to try and soften the Razorback defense up. The Hogs’ best bet to get stops (outside of turnovers) is for the Tide to take some early-down sacks when they could have just run the ball.

Sacks are basically all the Hogs can do well. Alabama has a boom-or-bust run game: too many of their runs go backwards (16%, 70th), but most of the rest gain at least six yards (40%, 4th). The biggest concern for Arkansas’ defense is that the run stuffs don’t come and Alabama’s backs – Gibbs and Jase McClellan – instead rip off several runs of 10+ yards. This game could get out of hand quickly if Alabama is able to run that easily.

When Arkansas has the ball

The Hogs do some things well: they are very efficient (13th), they maintain long drives (29th), they create scoring chances (41st), and, until last Saturday, they cash those chances in for points (42nd). But a lack of explosive plays (103rd) and some back-breaking turnovers in the last two weeks have doomed them.

Alabama hasn’t been forcing many turnovers, which is both a blessing and a curse. It’s a blessing because it gives Arkansas a chance to hold the ball for a while, but it’s a curse because any unforced error in the turnover department is a gift the Tide didn’t need or expect.

The big concern here is havoc rate. The Hogs take way too many negative plays, and Alabama is best in the nation at forcing them. Many of them are sacks or pass deflections that occur primarily on second down.

The Hogs are ultra-leveraged (3rd) and if they can maintain that on Saturday, a more conservative gameplan could allow the Hogs to work the clock, win field position, and keep the Tide offense on the sidelines. But avoiding the negative plays is so hard against the Tide.

There are literally no weaknesses to attack here. Rushing success rate and opportunity rate are both semi-promising. Winning both of those battles would mean that the Hogs stay on-schedule and put together long drives. As bad as that passing matchup looks, Texas had some success throwing with Quinn Ewers on early downs. Excellent play calling and crisp execution would be required, but I think that’s Arkansas’ best hope.

In both run and pass, I think Arkansas’ offensive success comes down to standard downs. If the Hogs can stay on-schedule and hit a few big plays, I think they can keep things close. Staying leveraged increases the offense’s chances of finally breaking out of its big play slump. But if the run gets completely shut down or too many pass attempts end in sacks or throwaways, then asking this offense to win a bunch of third-and-longs against this pass rush is probably too much.

Keys to the Game

Win the turnover battle. This will probably have to be +2 or maybe even +3 for the Hogs to have a shot. That’s actually doable, given that the Hogs are good at forcing them and Alabama’s not good at forcing them. Free possessions can close the gap quickly.

Hit big plays on early downs. This upset won’t happen without big plays. They’ve been a feature of the offense for two years but have been lacking this season. This is the perfect game for a breakout.

Make Alabama’s receivers win the game. It’s a longshot that the Hogs can actually stop the Tide receivers, especially with Bryce Young throwing to them, but that’s where Alabama is weakest on offense. It will be pretty sad if the Hogs give up 250 rushing yards and never give their offense a shot to keep it close, or if the Hogs make the game close only for Jahmyr Gibbs to take a swing pass 80 yards following a wild missed tackle in the flat. The Hogs must contain the run, take away the short passes, and make Alabama’s rebuilt receiving corps win the game. If they do, then so be it.

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matchup analysis

Matchup Analysis: Alabama