The Razorback basketball team tips off the most anticipated season in more than 20 years on Monday night at Bud Walton Arena. (Tip: 7 pm, SEC Network+ and ESPN+)
The opponent is the North Dakota State Bison. We don’t have advanced stats yet, but we can look at last year’s numbers to get an idea of what the Hogs are dealing with.
The betting line is fascinating, as the Hogs opened as 21-point favorites and as of lunchtime Monday, that line is up to 23.5 points. Arkansas only won two games by 21+ last season, so that seems incredibly high for a roster that’s going to take some time to gel. Of course, as we’ll see, the Bison also have a ton of new faces and likely won’t be at their best out of the gate.
Last year’s Bison
North Dakota State is often a threat in March, but last year’s team took a slight step back, though they still finished 128th out of 358 teams in Adjusted Scoring Margin. Our model says the Hogs would have beaten them 72-64 on a neutral floor.
Offense
Like all of the Dakota teams, the Bison play at a lumbering pace and rarely get in transition. They are very intentional and don’t play out of control. The offense is pretty typical continuity offense with lots of ball screens on the perimeter. Three-point shots are taken in rhythm, so there is a risk if they get hot. Paint touches come through traditional post-ups, but last year’s team struggled to actually get good shots at the rim.
All five guys on the floor will be a threat to shoot a 3-pointer. The Bison will try and maintain good spacing to create open 3s. Here, good spacing and passing helps turn an isolation play into an open corner 3:
However, they ranked just 207th in offensive efficiency last year. They shot well from beyond the arc (69th), but opponents were able to run them off the perimeter and keep them away from the rim, forcing a ton of low-percentage midrange jumpers.
They don’t create enough shots, either. They emphasize getting back on defense instead of offensive rebounding, so you’ll see a lot of one-and-done possessions if they miss. They aren’t overly turnover-prone, but more athletic teams can deflect a lot of their passes.
Defense
Defensively, the Bison ranked 71st in adjusted efficiency. They primarily play a soft man-to-man defense that focuses on keeping everything in front. That makes it very difficult to get open shots (16th in effective field goal percentage defense), but it comes at the expense of forcing turnovers (351st in opponent turnover rate).
NDSU’s inability to force turnovers means this matchup really favors Arkansas. With a new roster of guys still finding their roles, the Hogs struggled with turnovers during their European trip and against Texas. But the Bison won’t put much pressure on the ball, which should allow the Razorbacks to get more comfortable.
This year’s Bison
You think this year’s Hogs have some fresh faces? Only two of NDSU’s top 8 players by minutes a year ago are back. Top-graded players Sam Griesel (14.3 ppg, 95 grade) and Rocky Kreuser (15.6 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 94 grade), with Griesel’s transfer to Nebraska really upending expectations for this season. Third-best player Grant Nelson (11.6 ppg, 86 grade) is best returnee.
Unlike the Hogs, the Bison didn’t hit the transfer portal. So they will be counting on guys who had a very limited role a year ago to step up.
Names to Know
- Grant Nelson, PF. He’s 6’11 and was the team’s leading offensive rebounder last year. He doesn’t draw many fouls, but with a 53% floor percentage and 56% EFG, he’s easily the best option on offense for the Bison.
- Boden Skunberg, SG. He graded at just 39 last season thanks to some subpar shooting numbers (44% EFG) and too many turnovers (18%). But his 23 minutes per game made him the Bison’s effective sixth man. We’ll see if his offense has improved at all.
- Tajavis Miller, PG/CG. The Bison have five freshmen, but this Texas prospect is the lone starred recruit, earning three stars at 247. With all three starting guards gone, Miller might be competing for a starting job right out of the gate. He hit six three pointers in an exhibition win over Minnesota-Crookston.
Other Notes
The Razorbacks are longer than last year, but this still isn’t a huge team. If Arkansas will be vulnerable to big men, the Bison could present some threats. Their four tallest guys are 6’9, 6’10, 6’10, and 6’11, with the 6’11 guy being Nelson, their best returning player. Eric Musselman has mentioned on multiple occasions that several of Arkansas’ bigs are still competing for spots on the rotation. This game could provide an opportunity for someone to step up.
Keys to the Game
Defend the perimeter. Arkansas’ 3-point defense got off to a horrific start last year before stabilizing in January. The Bison want to turn defensive lapses into open 3-pointers, and failure by any single defender can lead to an open shot.
Find roles on offense. North Dakota State’s conservative defense won’t make it easy to get open shots. The Hogs will get in transition if they can, but in the halfcourt, we need to see a much better product than we saw against Texas (and in Europe, for that matter). Part of that will require guys buying in and understanding their assignments. That will take time to mature, but it needs to start with this game.
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