Haven’t you heard? Online sports betting is now legal in Arkansas, just in time for the NCAA Tournament. Fayette Villains offers insights and analysis to help you make picks.
Here’s a first look at our model projections ahead of a huge Saturday in college basketball. The model that we’re using has picked 495 games so far in February and is just 1.4 points off the Vegas opening line on average.
| Home | Away | Projected Margin | Favorite |
| Michigan State | Purdue | -4.3 | Purdue |
| Oklahoma | Oklahoma State | 3.0 | Oklahoma |
| Georgia | Florida | -7.6 | Florida |
| Mississippi State | Vanderbilt | 5.1 | Mississippi State |
| Arkansas | Kentucky | -4.6 | Kentucky |
| Kansas State | Iowa State | 0.3 | Kansas State |
| Ole Miss | Texas A&M | 0.7 | Ole Miss |
| Tennessee | Auburn | 3.0 | Tennessee |
| Alabama | South Carolina | 10.7 | Alabama |
| Rutgers | Wisconsin | -1.6 | Wisconsin |
| Baylor | Kansas | 2.0 | Baylor |
| Providence | Creighton | 5.9 | Providence |
| LSU | Missouri | 19.8 | LSU |
| Oregon | USC | 0.5 | Oregon |
| Utah State | Colorado State | 2.2 | Utah State |
| Saint Mary’s | Gonzaga | -8.2 | Gonzaga |
| West Virginia | Texas | -4.6 | Texas |
| Lipscomb | Central Arkansas | 7.5 | Lipscomb |
| Syracuse | Duke | -8.5 | Duke |
Here’s a quick rundown of the biggest games:
Tennessee-Auburn
This projection jumps out to me. Auburn was a slight favorite for their trip to Fayetteville, but they’ve lost twice since then. Auburn’s guards have to play better than they have been on the the road in recent games. So who should the Hogs cheer for? It’s tough: an Auburn loss actually leaves the door open for the Hogs to win the SEC, but a Tennessee win increases the chances that the Hogs end up with the 4-seed in the SEC tournament, even with a win Saturday.
Mississippi State-Vanderbilt
This may not seem like a big one, but the Hogs should be pulling for Vanderbilt. Why? Because the Commodores are a Q3 loss for the Hogs — one of two on the Arkansas schedule along with Hofstra — but Vandy is actually a couple wins away from ending up as a Q2 loss for the Hogs, which would be much, much better. Mississippi State is wounded after having their bubble burst in a blowout loss to South Carolina on Wednesday.
Alabama-South Carolina
The winner of this one likely gets the 5-seed in the SEC Tournament. If the Hogs do end up with the 4-seed, the Tide would be a difficult quarterfinal matchup. South Carolina owns the conference’s longest winning streak, but I’m guessing every Hog would rather see the Gamecocks in Tampa.
Arkansas-Kentucky
Fayetteville will be the place to be on Saturday. Expect the Hogs to open as slight underdogs, and be sure to read our advanced stats preview to get you ready for the game.