Rest easy, Hog fans. The Razorbacks are resting through a double-bye and preparing for the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. But the postseason starts today for SEC teams, as Ole Miss-Mizzou tip off at 5 and Vanderbilt-Georgia follow at 7. You can catch both games on the SEC Network. The Ole Miss-Mizzou winner is of particular interest to Arkansas, as that winner faces LSU tomorrow for the right to play Arkansas.
Consider this post a preview of the type of “mini matchup analyses” we’ll do for NCAA Tournament games after the bracket is announced on Sunday.
Ole Miss vs. Missouri
Ole Miss is favored by 4, and our model pick is Ole Miss 69, Mizzou 63.
Is this a high-quality matchup? No. But will it at least be fun to watch? Also no. Both teams play at a slow pace and struggle to make the ball go in the cylinder, so this one might be ugly.
Ole Miss is clearly the better team. They rank 129th in Adjusted Scoring Margin (Mizzou is 248th), and their average game score this season is 56 (Mizzou’s is 43). The Rebs should be able to avoid turnovers, get some open 3-point looks, and keep Mizzou off the free throw line. That’s probably enough to win. The biggest thing Ole Miss has working for it is that Mizzou’s defense has struggled against ballhandlers this season, ranking 352nd out of 357 teams in defense against point guards. That’s an issue against Ole Miss, as their top two players in terms of BPM are point guards: Daeshun Ruffin and Jarkel Joiner. Both should have good games for the Rebels.
Mizzou is at its best on offense when they slow the game down and make field goals, especially 2-pointers. Ole Miss is only 262nd in 2-point defense, so there’s a play there. Throw in that Ole Miss’ defense struggles against combo guards/small forwards, and things get interesting, as Mizzou has Kobe Brown and Ronnie DeGray III to take advantage of that.
But at the end of the day, Mizzou’s ballhandling is so atrocious that I’m not sure they can get the ball to their best players consistently. That’s been their problem all year. I like Ole Miss is a low-scoring and probably ugly game. I’d probably stay away from betting against the spread, but I’d take Ole Miss -4 before I’d touch Mizzou.
Vanderbilt vs. Georgia
Vanderbilt is favored by 9 and our model agrees, going with Vanderbilt 79, Georgia 70.
It’s a tale of two coaching situations here, and that has to be factored in. Jerry Stackhouse has done a nice job of getting Vandy up off the mat this season. Is it sustainable after Scotty Pippen Jr. leaves? Probably not, but let’s not kill the Vandy Vibe yet. Meanwhile, Tom Crean’s Georgia coaching career will end with his next loss. It’s probably this one.
Vandy is definitely better, ranking 96th in Adjusted Scoring Margin, while Georgia is a hideous 254th. The Bulldogs are imbalanced, ranking a solid 120th on offense but a ghastly 336th on defense. Vandy should be able to avoid turnovers and have open 3-point looks all day long, while their defense will speed Georgia up, lock down the perimeter, and clear defensive rebounds. This is not a great matchup for Georgia.
Vandy’s offense is at its best when the 3-pointers are flying — even missed 3-pointers have a positive correlation to Vandy’s offensive success, which is rare. Georgia lets opponents get open triples all day, ranking 265th in 3-point rate defense and 284th in 3-point percentage defense.
Meanwhile, Georgia’s offense is at its best when it can slow the pace down and make 3-pointers of its own. Bad news: Vanderbilt’s defense loves to speed you up, playing at the 24th-fastest defensive pace in the country this season, just 16.5 seconds per possession. And the Dores are great at defending the perimeter, ranking 41st in 3-point percentage defense. So this is a pretty terrible matchup for Georgia’s offense. All the Bulldogs have going for them is that Vanderbilt struggles to slow down combo guards/small forwards, and Georgia has three of them: Noah Baumann, Braelen Bridges, and Kario Oquendo, who are their top 3 players. Those three combined for 44 points in their last matchup.
I definitely like Vanderbilt in this game. I think it will be high-scoring, so the total of 143.5 interests me more than the spread. The mental impact on Georgia could factor in: will they play hard in Coach Crean’s last game, or are they just ready to end this disaster of a season?