Well, that was ugly! And trust me, a deeper dive into the numbers behind Arkansas’ 53-48 win over New Mexico State isn’t going to make this game look any prettier. But that’s what we’re here for so let’s do it anyway.

Quick Recap

Confused? Check out the advanced stats glossary to learn more about the stats cited here.

• This game was as offensively-challenged as you might imagine. It scores as Arkansas’ worst offensive game of the year and New Mexico State’s third-worst.
• As we discussed in the preview, Arkansas did indeed struggle in transition, at one time failing to score on five consecutive transition possessions. But the game broke open in each half when the Hogs started to succeed in transition, and ultimately, the numbers aren’t as bad as I thought they’d be.
• New Mexico State’s defense is elite around the rim — that’s a common theme with little teams that pull upsets in March — and it showed, as Arkansas struggled to make layups and close midrange shots that they normally make.
• New Mexico State shot slightly better, but as we predicted, the Aggies didn’t get as many shot chances as Arkansas, so it ultimately didn’t matter.
• Teddy Allen was turned into a total nonfactor by Au’Diese Toney and the Razorback defense. Johnny McCants picked up some of the slack, but it obviously was not enough. The Aggie supporting cast was unimpressive.

Game Score

Is that what you expected? That’s about what I expected. The Hogs’ defensive grade of 99 is their third-best of the season (the Hogs 100s in the 87-43 win over Mizzou and the 58-48 win over Tennessee), while the offensive grade of 9 is the worst (next-lowest: 13 vs. Alabama).

I guess if you want good news, it’s that Arkansas graded at 94 on offense against Vermont and then 99 on defense against New Mexico State. The Hogs can win in multiple ways.

Team Stats

Neither team had a single putback. The Hogs got into transition on 23% on possessions and converted half of them into points. That’s well under Arkansas’ season average, but given that Arkansas only converted 33% of halfcourt possessions into points, running ended up being the better option.

We warned you about New Mexico State’s transition defense in the preview:

New Mexico State is interesting, as they allow too many transition possessions (276th), but do a good job of preventing offenses from converting them into points (5th). The Hogs may be able to run, but should they want to?

UConn walked right into this trap. The Huskies got in transition on 30% of possessions… but converted on just 35% of them. UConn actually matched the Aggies’ efficiency in halfcourt, but the lost possessions from trying to play a transition game cost them. Arkansas just outmatched Vermont in a halfcourt game, so the Hogs may should stick to that.

Ultimately, the Hogs converted on 50% of transition possessions, so the preview was wrong and running was the best option? Well, not exactly. During the latter part of the first half, Arkansas was able to run, converting five straight transition possessions to turn a 12-9 lead into a 24-11 lead. Then the second half started.

Arkansas’ first five transition attempts in the second half ended without points. Four of them occurred during the eight minutes that Arkansas was stuck on 30 points and played a significant role in the Hogs blowing a nine-point halftime lead. Arkansas’ final transition attempt of the game — and their only successful transition play in the second half — was this one:

So I’d say the preview was right. Arkansas almost blew this game by trying to run, but credit the Hogs for pulling out the tailspin late.

Other than that, the numbers in the table above are as you’d expect. We talked about how Arkansas would likely generate significantly more shot chances in the halfcourt, and that happened, as 19 turnovers limited New Mexico State’s ability to get shots up. Arkansas shot 22% EFG in the halfcourt — which is horrid — but both created free throws (42.4 FTAs per 100 halfcourt possessions) and made them (22 of 25) to save their offensive numbers.

Player Stats

These player efficiency numbers in the far column use box score stats and thus cannot account for the defense work of Toney, who is my MVP. Notae — despite fouling out, turning it over six times, and shooting under 50% TS — still led the Hogs, due largely to his eight steals and the fact that even though he was inefficient, he was more efficient than other shooters.

Also, check out Teddy Allen. His 37-point game against UConn graded at +15.0, but the Hogs dropped him all the way to minus-1.9, his fifth-worst game of the year.

Up Next

The days of double-digit seeds are over for the Hogs. Now it’s time to battle with the big boys. The Hogs will start with the biggest boy, overall number-one seed Gonzaga. I won’t sugarcoat it: it’s a terrible matchup for the Hogs. Not only is Gonzaga really good, but they are really good in ways that can exploit some of Arkansas’ shortcomings. The Hogs do have some options to fight back — and there are exactly zero teams in the country that I’d say they have no chance to beat — and we’ll take a look at those options in a matchup analysis during the week.

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