Twin brothers Makhel and Makhi Mitchell are the latest transfers to commit to Arkansas.
The two big men — Makhel is 6’10 and Makhi is 6’9 — come from Rhode Island, where they spent two seasons, averaging 20 points and 14 rebounds per game between them this year. Each has two years of eligibility remaining.
The Hogs are now back to zero available slots on their roster, so someone will have to transfer out if the Hogs want to add any more portal players.
Player profile
Their measurables. Makhel is 6’10, 250 pounds, while Makhi is 6’9, 245. These are big dudes.
Their raw stats. Makhel averaged 10.7 points and 5.6 rebounds in 26.5 minutes per game, while Makhi averaged 9.9 points and 7.3 rebounds in 21.5 minutes per game. Makhel blocked 2.4 shots per game and Makhi blocked 1.4 per game. That would rank 3rd and 8th in the SEC this season on a per-game basis.
Their games. Both are old-school, physical, Big East-style power forwards. They’ll use their size to bang around in the low post. They can venture out to the perimeter on defense, but how good they are out there depends on the athleticism of the opponent. Makhel is a major shot-block threat and typically the more traditional post player, while Makhi has more upside, as he’s much more athletic, allowing him to be a better rebounder and perimeter defender at the expense of turning it over much more often (89 last year, not great).
At least one Mitchell was on the floor at almost all times for Rhode Island last year, and they played together a ton. When both were out there, Makhel played center and Makhi was more of a 4.
Here’s Makhi operating off a post entry pass:
Both Mitchell brothers sometimes struggle to finish at the rim. I’d like to see Makhi get a higher-percentage shot than what he got there, but he does a nice job of getting close.
Their advanced stats. Advanced stats on these two are mixed. Box Plus Minus (BPM) measures productivity, and Net Adjusted Plus Minus (NAPM) measures value to the team.
Makhel’s +2.4 BPM was tied for first on Rhode Island and would be fifth-best at Arkansas last year, behind only Notae, Williams, Vanover, and Umude. His +3.1 Defense BPM would make him Arkansas’ second-best defender in terms of productivity, behind only Jaylin Williams. Makhi’s +1.1 BPM was fourth-best on Rhode Island, but would only be 10th-best on Arkansas, behind Trey Wade. His +2.6 Defense BPM would be third for the Hogs, trailing only Williams and Notae.
NAPM is less kind. Rhode Island was actually 5.7 points worse when Makhel was on the floor versus when he was off, and Makhi’s NAPM is also negative, at -1.3. That’s not great, but there are a lot of confounding factors there. First, both frequently played together, but at least one was on the floor virtually all of the time, so they were often replacing each other in the lineup, making it hard to decipher value. All their NAPMs really tell us is that URI was not very good when they were both out there together.
While they are certainly defensive specialists, their offense needs some work. Both have negative Offense BPMs and negative Offense NAPMs, so they are both unproductive offensively and URI as a team is less productive offensively when they are on the floor.
Makhel shot 50.2 percent from the floor but just 52.4 percent at the line last year. Free throw shooting will have to be corrected: he’s just 109 of 218 (50%) in his career. That’s Hack-a-Shaq territory. Makhi isn’t really better: he’s 88 of 163 (54%) for his career. Last year he hit 52.2 percent from the field and hit 7 of 23 from beyond the arc. Makhel has never made a 3-pointer in his career.
Overall, my take is that there were better players in the portal. Makhi was a four-star recruit out of high school, and Muss has had some success rehabilitating former highly-recruited players (especially at Nevada). But Arkansas’ chances of landing Fardaws Aimaq — a much stronger option at center — are now basically zero, and now someone else will have to leave if the Hogs want to sign a highly-sought portal wing like Terrance Shannon or Brandon Murray. But as I detail below, I think there’s a solid strategy behind taking these two guys.
What role will the Mitchell brothers play?
Let’s visualize the roster by position. For returnees and transfers, I’m using the position assigned by the BPM formula, which assigns a position based on each player’s statistical profile. For the freshmen, I assigned a position based on a guess of where they’ll end up.
Now let’s look at the player count by position:
- Point Guard: 1 primary, 3 total
- Shooting Guard: 3 primary, 5 total
- Combo Guard/Small Forward: 3 primary, 9 total
- Power Forward: 4 primary, 7 total
- Center: 2 primary, 5 total
You may be thinking, that’s a lot of big men. It is. Six of the 14 scholarships are given to players projected as power forwards or centers. Musselman tends to build guard-oriented teams that have bigger guards to make up for a lack of size, so what’s he up to with this roster construction?
That’s even more guys who play the 5th position: the Hogs returned their top two guys who played the 5 last year (Williams and Kamani Johnson), signed Mizzou’s starting 5 (Trevon Brazile), and signed the two guys who played basically every minute of Rhode Island’s 5 (the Mitchell brothers). What gives? Here are three possibilities:
Williams isn’t coming back. This would obviously be the worst-case scenario, as you could probably kiss that preseason number-one ranking goodbye. But maybe Muss knows that Williams is gone and has already found his replacement big men.
The Mitchell brothers don’t mind sitting for a year. At the end of the day, Muss will ultimately roll into the latter part of conference play with a lineup of six or seven core guys and one or two other guys who pick up a few minutes a game. That means there are at least four scholarship players who are going to put up a bunch of DNPs in SEC games. The Mitchell brothers started their careers together at Maryland, transferred to Rhode Island together, and are now coming to Fayetteville together. It’s possible, if not probable, that they consider themselves a package deal. That limits their options, as there are not a ton of teams with two scholarships to spend in the portal on the same position. Maybe they would rather be together than see the floor a ton, and Muss has no problems putting just one of them in the final rotation while stockpiling future depth at forward. In that case, the twins would battle with Kamani Johnson for the role of Williams’ backup, with the winner of that battle becoming the 8th man in the rotation, and the two losers not seeing the floor much down the stretch of the year.
But there’s one more possibility.
Muss’s portal strategy
Let me go back to April 2019, when Eric Musselman was hired, and I wrote this about Muss and recruiting over at Arkansas Fight:
At Arkansas, Musselman will have access to a much deeper talent pool, as Arkansas’ high school basketball punches well above its weight, producing at least one, and often two or three SEC-caliber players each year. Land those, and fans probably won’t mind if the Hogs supplement the rest of the roster with a well-planned transfer strategy.
This is where the “supplement the rest of the roster with a well-planned transfer strategy” thing becomes apparent. I thought this when the Hogs signed Trevon Brazile, and it’s even more apparent now: Muss is taking the best-available high school players and then getting highly situational players from the portal. Chris Lykes helped the team win with free throws. Trey Wade was apparently signed to have one big game against Gonzaga. Au’Diese Toney locked down the perimeter. Stanley Umude was the second perimeter scoring option.
The situation for the Hogs’ three transfer pickups is evident. To understand it, let’s look at three possible lineups.
First, the projected “main” lineup. Here’s a stab at it:
- PG Anthony Black
- SG Nick Smith
- CG Devo Davis
- PF Jordan Walsh
- C Jaylin Williams
Nothing surprising here, except that none of the transfers are starting in this one. But that’s okay! Because when Duke or Auburn show up on the schedule, the Hogs can roll with this one:
- PG Anthony Black 6’7
- SG Nick Smith 6’4
- SF Jordan Walsh 6’7 / Trevon Brazile 6’9
- PF Makhi Mitchell 6’9 / Kamani Johnson 6’7
- C Jaylin Williams 6’10 / Makhel Mitchell 6’10
This lineup is extremely large but also extremely athletic. It allows Walsh and Brazile to play their NBA positions (they project as wings at the next level), while giving Williams much-needed help on the interior to deal with multiple 6’10 starters the opponent will throw out there. The Hogs could even give Williams a breather without sacrificing any height.
It’s not a perfect lineup: only two guards are starting here, and both are true freshmen. But it gives the Hogs a better chance against huge opponents.
Okay, here’s a totally different lineup. Now the Hogs are playing Vermont/Colgate/Oral Roberts. It’s all guards and 5-out spacing. The Hogs had to roll with Justin Smith at the 5 against Colgate and ORU and even tried to do the same with Trey Wade for a few minutes against Vermont. These little teams that are extremely guard-oriented and well-spaced have the potential to neutralize your size if you have a defender that can’t play on the perimeter.
Here’s the antidote:
- PG Anthony Black 6’7
- SG Nick Smith 6’4
- CG Devo Davis 6’4
- PF Jordan Walsh 6’7
- C Trevon Brazile 6’9
This lineup will be devastating in a first-round game against a Northeast school (and a handful of regular season games, mostly non-conference), because it will be significantly taller than the opponent while still fielding five guys who are completely comfortable defending the perimeter. I think a lineup like this is the biggest value the addition of Brazile provides. He’ll be in the final rotation as a 4, but the ability to stick him in the lineup as a 5 against a smaller, quicker opponent without sacrificing shot-blocking or height is really good to have.
Hopefully you can see the portal strategy coming together. Muss now has the tools for a regular lineup, a big lineup, and a small lineup. If the Hogs want to make a run, they’ll have to beat every kind of team.
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