On to Alabama. I don’t really want to spend too much time revisiting this game, but I guess we have to. Arkansas mostly outplayed Texas A&M and lost due to a bunch of really dumb mistakes. That’s the recap in a nutshell. The good news is that if the Hogs clean up some of the mistakes, they’ll be fine, and 8 or even 9 wins are still possible. The bad news is that if the mistakes continue, then 7-5 becomes more likely, as the Razorbacks’ struggling defense leaves them with limited margin for error.
Recent posts
- Box Score Breakdown: Arkansas 76, Lipscomb 60
- Box Score Breakdown: Ole Miss 63, Arkansas 31
- Matchup Analysis: Ole Miss
- Box Score Breakdown: Arkansas 58, Mississippi State 25
- Matchup Analysis: Mississippi State
Grading the Hogs
We assign grades based on how the team’s performance – adjusted for quality of opponent – compares to all other teams in all other games this season. The grades are 0-100 and can be thought of as percentile performances, so a grade of 65, for example, means your overall performance was better than 65% of all other performances this season.
Here are the team grades for Arkansas against Texas A&M:
- Offense: 63
- Defense: 54
- Overall: 59
The Hogs graded at 68 against South Carolina, so this wasn’t a huge dropoff. This grading system only looks at offense and defense (the assumption is that other things even out in the long run), so Jefferson’s fumble at the goal line is merely a fumble and the 99-yard touchdown return isn’t charged to the offense or the defense. This is consistent with the way most models evaluate games, as “fluky” plays cannot be counted on to be repeated.
There’s more good news, as our models aren’t the only ones not that down on the Hogs. ESPN’s Bill Connelly, whose SP+ model is one of the best in the business, said Arkansas had a 67% postgame win expectancy, meaning that given all of the raw and advanced stats he uses, the Hogs should have won two-thirds of the time given the way the game played out.
The offense is probably fine…
The Hogs put up more than 420 yards and should have scored 31 points against an excellent defense if KJ Jefferson doesn’t fumble at the 1 and the last-second field goal is good. You take that every time. I didn’t love the playcalling on the Hornsby sequence that cost the Hogs a shot at least a field goal but people who are actually claiming that Kendal Briles should be fired are way out of line here. I mean, goodness. The Hogs can move the ball on anyone, and if execution is even decent they can score a ton of points.
…but the defense probably isn’t
I see all of the complaints about Briles because, apparently, Barry Odom is untouchable. Odom has been fantastic in Fayetteville, but this is a terrible defense and it’s probably about to be exposed over the next few weeks. The season-ending injury to Jalen Catalon obviously hurts, but the Hogs have major issues all over.
Let’s understand Texas A&M really quick. The Aggies totaled 181 yards and seven points against Appalachian State, the same App State that allowed 567 yards and 56 points to North Carolina and 376 yards and 32 points to James Madison. The Aggies then totaled 265 yards and 17 points against Miami, the same Miami that allowed 507 yards and 45 points to Middle Tennessee on Saturday. These aren’t good defenses that the Aggies struggled against; they are terrible defenses. But Arkansas’ was worse against A&M. Allowing just 17 points isn’t bad, but the Aggies had nearly 400 yards of offense and were able to overcome bad field position (a 93-yard touchdown drive) and play keepaway in the third quarter, allowing the Hogs to run just six plays over more than 15 minutes of gametime.
As we’ll see below, the Hogs can contain the run but not stop it, and they are horrific in passing downs, routinely losing receivers in coverage and missing open-field tackles. The pass rush is above-average and that’s about all you can compliment the defense on. The next three offenses on the schedule – Alabama, BYU, and Mississippi State – are well-equipped to exploit all of the weaknesses in this defense.
Advanced Stats
Confused by any of the advanced stats you see here? Be sure to check out the glossary.
Arkansas averaged +0.15 EPA/Play without the fumble. That play alone cost the Hogs 12.8 points. It literally took the game from a double-digit win to a loss.
That goes hand-in-hand with the second Key to the Game, from the preview:
Win in the red zone. Anytime you face a bend-don’t-break defense, you have to finish promising drives with points. This was one of our keys against Cincinnati, and the Hogs delivered with 6.2 points per trip inside the 40. The Aggies have allowed a lot of drives inside their 40 – ten in the last two weeks – but have allowed just 26 points on them.
The Hogs had 6.2 points per scoring opportunity against Cincinnati, but just 2.8 against Cincinnati. The Hogs scored one touchdown from outside the 40, but the four trips inside the 40 ended thusly: two touchdowns, one punt, one turnover, one missed field goal. That’s 14 points in five opportunities.
Again from the preview:
The Razorback offense should be able to eek out first downs here and there and compete in the field position battle, but the only chance to actually win is to turn promising drives into points.
Mishandled snaps, missed field goals, needlessly-cute playcalling, fumbles… that will cost you the game.
The Razorback offense was ultra-efficient on early downs and stayed leveraged all game. The havoc rate was way too high: 30% of plays included a turnover, lost yardage, or pass deflection.
Against the Aggie offense… well, as I’ve said above, this Arkansas defense appears hopeless right now. From the preview:
They try to stay on-schedule because of those passing downs numbers: when this offense is off-schedule, it’s terrible. The Aggies are 126th in marginal third down conversions and 102nd in passing downs success rate. This game will pit bad-on-bad when it comes to the Aggie offense and the Razorback defense on passing downs.
Texas A&M finished with +0.21 EPA/Play on passing downs. If the Aggies can have effective passing downs, everyone left on Arkansas’ schedule can too. Unless there is significant improvement, the Hogs’ only shot is to force turnovers. Sacks alone aren’t enough: Texas A&M converted a 2nd-and-30, a 2nd-and-17, and a 3rd-and-13.
The Hogs ran the ball effectively (55% success, 43% opportunity, low stuff rate) and generated big plays in the passing game. The fumble and a couple of mishandled snaps were the only complaints I have. As I said, this offense will be fine. It can move the ball on anyone and will score plenty of points if the mistakes come down.
The defense? Can’t say the same. The Aggies ran all over the Hogs, generated plenty of successful runs but also explosive runs. The Hogs pass rush kept limited the Aggie aerial attack, but when Max Johnson got the throw off, Texas A&M was fine.
Up Next
No time to mope, it’s Alabama week. The Tide open as two-touchdown favorites in Fayetteville. We’ll see how much bounceback these Hogs have in them.
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