The Week Ahead: Week 5

Adam Ford

27 Sep, 2022

The Week Ahead: Week 5

“The Week Ahead” is our weekly Monday (Tuesday, for this week) piece, covering any relevant news from the weekend and taking a first look at all the games coming up this weekend.

Week 4 News

Alabama favored by 16.5 points. I’ve seen a few lines, but most are about 15 to 17 points. Our model has the Tide by 15.

Hogs fall to 20th in AP poll. That seems really harsh for a fluky loss on a missed field goal at the end to a ranked team on a neutral field. For comparison, Oklahoma lost at home to unranked Kansas State in a game they were completely outplayed and also fell 10 spots, to 16th. That doesn’t seem right at all. Kansas (4-0 with wins over Houston, West Virginia, and Duke) is also out, as is Cincinnati (3-1 with an easy win over Indiana). I’m not sure what’s going on in these polls.

Opinion: Pittman needs to get better at managing late-game field goals. I didn’t discuss this in the instant analysis or the box score breakdown, so I’ll lay it out here. Saturday marks the second time the Hogs have lost on a missed field goal in the final seconds. Sam Pittman handled both situations the same way and both were, in my opinion, incorrect.

The first was 2020 LSU. Arkansas trailed 27-24 and was driving in the final seconds. With 1:30 left, the Hogs faced 3rd-and-3 at the LSU 27. LSU had two remaining timeouts. Arkansas kicker AJ Reed was not particularly reliable. There were two good options here:

  • Run the ball, and don’t kick the field goal until the clock has winded down some more. The goal here is to get close and leave LSU with no chance to score after the kick.
  • Go for it on fourth down if you don’t convert on third.

Arkansas did neither. They threw incomplete on third down and then trotted out Reed for a 44-yard field goal with 1:24 on the clock. Reed’s chance of hitting was probably less than 50%, and even if he made it, LSU had 84 seconds and two timeouts, needing only about 40 yards to set up a try for their excellent kicker, Cade York.

Let’s make the following reasonable assumptions:

  • Reed has a 50% chance to make the 44-yard field goal (I think this is generous)
  • Arkansas’ defense has a 75% chance of stopping LSU in the final 1:24 (that seems generous, given that Jalen Catalon had been tossed for targeting earlier)
  • Arkansas has a 50% chance to win in overtime
  • Arkansas has a 60% chance to convert a 4th-and-3
  • Arkansas has a 10% chance to score a touchdown if they convert on fourth down
  • Reed has a 75% chance to make a closer field goal if the Hogs convert on fourth down
  • LSU has no chance to score again in regulation if the Hogs convert on fourth down and try a field goal later

If you do what the Hogs did: You see a 50% chance of losing in regulation from missing the field goal. Then add to that a 12.5% of losing on an LSU field goal in regulation (25% of 50%), and then add to that 18.75% chance of losing in overtime (50% of 37.5%), and you are left with an 18.75% chance of winning the game. And that’s with generous assumptions.

If you run the ball on third down and kick on fourth down: You eliminate the chance of LSU winning in regulation, increasing your win chances to 25%. Nothing else changes.

If you go for it on fourth down: If you assume a 60% chance to convert a 4th-and-3, a 10% chance of scoring a touchdown after converting, a 75% chance of making the closer field goal, no chance for LSU to win in regulation after a made field goal following a conversion, and keep the 50% chance to win in overtime, you end up with Arkansas having a 6% chance to win in regulation and 20.25% chance to win in overtime, for a total of 26.25% chance of winning if you go for it.

The worst choice was taken, the field goal was missed, and Arkansas lost 27-24.

Flash forward to Saturday. The Hogs faced 3rd-and-14 and the Aggie 25 with 2:20 to play. Texas A&M has two timeouts, as do the Hogs. There are two good options:

  • Throw for the first down. If you fail, you’ll try a 43-yard field goal with about 2:10 to play and two timeouts, meaning that you’ll get another chance in case you miss if you can get a stop.
  • Run the ball, then kick without calling a timeout. A called run probably gets 5 yards or so because A&M is defending the pass. That sets up a ~38-yard field goal and you still have two timeouts if the kick is missed with about 1:40 to play. You’d have about 40 seconds left if you could get a stop after a miss.

We can do the math, but the Hogs picked door number three, which was easily the worst option. A pass was called, but Jefferson scrambled and only got one yard, which was the worst possible scenario. Either an incomplete pass (to save time) or a called run (to get more yards) would have been better. Jefferson also scrambled left, away from Cam Little’s dominant side (right-footed kickers usually prefer to kick from the right hash). Then the Hogs compounded it by calling a timeout, guaranteeing that the game was over if Little missed.

Part of the reason the Hogs ran the clock down and called a timeout is that they wanted to limit Texas A&M’s time on offense. But that was a terrible strategy after the bad snap. The original plan – to run the clock down and kick a short field goal as time expired – was a good one, but it should have been thrown out the window once the snap was bad.

Even if Little made the field goal, Texas A&M would have had 1:45 and two timeouts. That’s an eternity when you only need a field goal. After the bad snap, Arkansas was no longer going to be able to win by running the Aggies out of time; rather, they would need a fourth-down stop, a turnover, or a missed field goal. By draining the clock and calling a timeout, the Hogs ran the clock out on themselves; you should never do this when trailing unless you are in excellent scoring territory, and the Hogs weren’t.

Recent posts

Week 5 in the SEC

South Carolina State at South Carolina and Eastern Washington at Florida. These two games have been moved (the first one to Thursday, the second one to Sunday) due to Hurricane Ian. It shouldn’t impact the outcome.

LSU at Auburn. Bryan Harsin tried (and failed) to get himself fired in a 17-14 technically-a-win against Missouri. Now LSU is a 9-point favorite on the Plains. Will this be it for Harsin?

Georgia at Missouri. Missouri somehow managed to lose on Saturday and now bowl eligibility is looking less and less likely. The Tigers can beat Vanderbilt, but they’ll need two more SEC wins to get to six. Where do they come from? Not from Georgia, obviously.

Around the Country

NC State at Clemson. ESPN Gameday was 100% coming to Fayetteville until that field goal hit the top of the upright. Now they’re stuck with this matchup. The Wolfpack are undefeated but look vulnerable. Clemson silenced a lot of critics with a 51-45 road win over Wake Forest.

Watch These

Alabama at Arkansas (2:30 pm, CBS). How do the Hogs bounce back? The Tide will likely score plenty of points, but their less-good-than-usual offensive line could limit the damage they can do against Arkansas’ weak back end. Can the Razorback offense keep up?

Kentucky at Ole Miss (11 am, ESPN). Is Ole Miss for real? The Rebels had to hold on against Tulsa on Saturday and have played the weakest schedule of any SEC team to date. Kentucky already has a big win at Florida. The Rebels are touchdown favorites.

Texas A&M at Mississippi State (3 pm, SEC Network). The Aggies can’t really enjoy their (lucky) win on Saturday, as they have to hit the road and play Mississippi State, who beat them last year. Ainias Smith is out for the year, damaging the Aggies’ already-weak passing game. The Hogs will probably feel slightly better if the Aggies win easily.

The latest from Fayette Villains, straight to your inbox

Enter your email to subscribe and receive new post alerts and other updates. You can unsubscribe at any time.