Happy Friday! Let’s pick some games. Our model spits out a projected score and compares it to the Vegas spread. It has gone 55% and 54% ATS over the last two seasons, which is especially good considering that it does not account for injuries and picks every single game. I generally don’t start picking games until Week 5, so we’re starting this week.

Recent posts

• Box Score Breakdown: Arkansas 89, Michigan 87
• Matchup Analysis: UTSA
• Box Score Breakdown: Arkansas 76, Miami 73
• Matchup Analysis: Miami
• Matchup Analysis: Illinois

SEC

Alabama 42, Arkansas 21. The more I look at the numbers, the more I don’t think it will be quite this bad. In the matchup analysis, we looked at a couple matchups the Hogs actually have going for them. Enough to win? Probably not. Enough to not lose by 21 point? Almost certainly.

LSU 28, Auburn 5. Auburn’s getting just 7.5 points right now, so there’s some potential betting value here. LSU’s defense is salty.

Ole Miss 27, Kentucky 17. This is about what most people are expecting.

Mississippi State 24, Texas A&M 10. If that happens, it would be a bad look for the Hogs. The model still hates Texas A&M’s offense and loves Mississippi State’s.

Georgia 30, Missouri 4. Missouri would actually cover with this unlikely final score. The Tigers’ defense is actually decent, although their offense is hopeless.

Other Games

Clemson 36, NC State 34. Clemson finally got its offense fixed only for its secondary to get shredded against Wake Forest. NC State looks like a 4-0 paper tiger, but then again, so does Clemson. This could be a fun game.

Florida State 49, Wake Forest 45. This is the highest total my model has ever spit out. To this point, these are top two offenses in college football: the Demon Deacons are 1st and the Seminoles 2nd in Adjusted Points per Game. Wake just lost to Clemson 51-45 last week, so this score isn’t that crazy. Florida State is getting a ton of credit for scoring 24 on LSU, since the Tigers have looked amazing since that game (see LSU-Auburn pick above). If that was indeed an outlier performance, it’s going to take a few more weeks for FSU’s offensive numbers to calm down.

Kansas 23, Iowa State 23. Can the Jayhawks get to 5-0? I’ve got a nailbiter.

USC 32, Arizona State 15. 14-0. That’s USC’s turnover numbers this years. The Trojans are +14, including +4 in a narrow win over Oregon State last week. Skill is involved, but so is luck right now. And what happens when the luck runs out? Well, coachless Arizona State isn’t likely to take advantage, though the model does think they cover. Keep an eye on USC, though.

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