Model picks for Week 6

Adam Ford

5 Oct, 2022

Model picks for Week 6

We picked our first games last week. Let’s review how those went and get on to game picks for Week 6.

Week 5 Recap

  • Games: 55
  • ATS Record: 30-25 (56%)
  • ATS Variance: 13.9

Anything above 50% is obviously good, so we’re happy with this result. The variance of 13.9 points per game is a little high, but not terrible given how small of a sample size we’re dealing with.

Best picks

A few games actually managed to hit the spread we projected, or get very close.

USC 42, Arizona State 25. Model pick: USC 32, Arizona State 15. Slightly higher-scoring than the model expected, but the 17-point margin was perfect. Sun Devils cover.

Oregon 45, Stanford 27. Model pick: Oregon 38, Stanford 20. Again, more scoring, but the spread of 18 points was correct.

Alabama 49, Arkansas 26. Model pick: Alabama 42, Arkansas 21. Ugh. Sometimes I hate it when this thing is right.

Six games ended up being picked within one point of the final result.

In the 10 games where my model broke the most from Vegas, only four picks were correct. That number has been around 60% over the last couple of seasons, so that’s where I’m looking for improvement. Here were the best picks of those.

Eastern Michigan 20, UMass 13. Vegas spread: EMU by 20. Model pick: EMU by 1. This ended up being a close game.

Maryland 27, Michigan State 13. Vegas spread: Maryland by 7.5. Model pick: Maryland by 23. Michigan State gave Mel Tucker a huge extension and now the Spartans are terrible. Yikes.

Worst picks

You can’t win ’em all.

Illinois 34, Wisconsin 10. Model pick: Wisconsin 40, Illinois 22. Yikes, Badgers. You let Bret Bielema come into Madison and beat you that badly? The Badgers had no choice but to fire Paul Chryst after that one.

Georgia Tech 26, Pitt 21. Model pick: Pitt 36, Georgia Tech 0. I don’t think anyone saw this one coming.

Recent posts

Picks for Week 6

We’re picking 57 games this week. Here are some interesting ones.

Mississippi State 43, Arkansas 32. The Hogs’ defense is… not good. Expect see plenty of big numbers for the rest of the season unless something changes drastically.

Mizzou 22, Florida 21. This is a straight-up upset call here, as Florida opened as 10-point favorites.

Alabama 36, Texas A&M 4. All of that offseason hype for this matchup after Saban and Fisher’s dustup… and here we are, with Alabama projected to win 36-4. Max Johnson is hurt, so the Aggies may be going back to Haynes King, the Interception King.

Buffalo 30, Bowling Green 10. The Falcons are actually 1.5-point favorites, but the model thinks Buffalo is much better. This is the biggest gap between the model and Vegas this week.

Illinois 15, Iowa 7. Bret Bielema’s got the Illini on a roll now. They are 4-1 after stomping Wisconsin and are now favorites against Iowa. If they win, they’ll be the favorites to win the Big Ten West. New coordinators have keyed Bielema’s resurgence: OC Barry Lunney is doing a nice job (keep an eye on him if Briles leaves Fayetteville), but DC Ryan Walters is one of the rising stars in the profession. Illinois is 6th in Opponent EPA/Play. While we’re at it, here’s a model pick today: Illinois by 5 over Arkansas.

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