The Razorbacks are going backwards following a 40-17 thrashing at the hands of Mississippi State. I was on the road yesterday, so there was no Instant Analysis, so let’s do some Day-After Analysis instead.
Takeaways
Bowl chances might be at risk. The Hogs have to win three more games to make a bowl. Because of dumb scheduling, the Hogs still have to play BYU and Liberty. The Cougars are good, and the Flames are no pushover. Liberty is the most likely remaining win, and the Hogs have a good shot against both Auburn and Mizzou, but those two are on the road. Slip up in either, and now Arkansas has to find a win out of BYU, Ole Miss, and LSU. It’s doable, but it’s not going to be easy. Going 6-0 (or, more likely, 5-1) is weirdly not out of the question either, as Ole Miss in Fayetteville is the toughest remaining game and it is very possible that the Rebels will be only foe ranked in the top-25 at kickoff.
Sam Pittman ruffled some feathers after the game when he said the program’s main goal of making a bowl is still on the table. His quote was taken a bit out of context in some places, but even in context, it’s not a great quote. It would be fine if he was still the lovable offensive line coach hired to resurrect the program. But he isn’t, and he raised the standard himself when he hired coaching agent Jimmy Sexton and secured a large raise last offseason. Arkansas isn’t paying him $5 million to go 6-6. That would be a disappointment.
The defense isn’t going to be saved this year. I held out a small bit of hope that the defense would play better than expected this week. Barry Odom has faced the Air Raid many times and, from a schematic standpoint, knows exactly how to defend it. He successfully stopped it many times as Mizzou’s secondary coach during their Big 12 days and then, of course, in 2020. But, alas, the Hogs gave up more than 560 yards of offense and didn’t really even look like a Sun Belt defense, much less an SEC defense. There are some bad offenses left on the schedule (Auburn is bad, Mizzou is bad, Liberty is not good compared to the SEC, LSU is mediocre at best), but everyone’s going to move the football.
The problem isn’t scheme, it’s personnel. But that’s the coaches’ fault just like scheme is. They brought in this transfer class, which doesn’t include any run-stopping capability. They’ve failed to build depth in the secondary, particularly at safety, where former walk-on Simeon Blair is now a three-year starter without ever looking like an SEC-caliber player, and Jayden Johnson is now in his second season as a high-use player despite overwhelming coverage deficiencies.
The Box Score Breakdown will take a deeper dive into the personnel issues on defense. It is not pretty, and it’s making me question Odom’s future in Fayetteville.
Moving forward
Hornsby needs a role. The staff’s offseason instincts were correct, they just over-designed Malik Hornsby’s role in the offense, leading to the disastrous three-play sequence in the second quarter of the A&M game that pulled the plug on the experiment. I think there were two issues with Hornsby’s initial role: first, there were too many trick plays. Hornsby needs to get into open field, but you don’t need double-reverses to make that happen. Just a simple tap pass will do. Second, Hornsby almost always got the ball when he was in the game. As the defense has to focus on him, he has a ton of value as a decoy. I would think he should get two or three decoy snaps for every touch/target he gets. That jet motion where he gets the tap pass would be great window-dressing for a simple inside zone. Then you give him the tap pass every now and then.
Big plays are possible. As we discussed in the matchup analysis, Arkansas is not creating enough big plays on offense, and big plays are important for the offense to work right. KJ Jefferson is an accurate deep ball passer, the Kendal Briles offense likes big pass plays, and the receivers are good. So what’s the problem? There may not be a problem. Hornsby had no issues hitting huge pass plays, and he’s not a particularly accurate thrower. There’s no reason Jefferson cannot do the same thing. That needs to be an area of emphasis, because the offense keeps shooting itself in the foot on long, conservative drives. Given the state of the defense, the offense has to play shootout football from here on in.
Around the SEC
Alabama 24, Texas A&M 20. There are no moral victories for $95 million coaches, but Jimbo Fisher used last year’s Alabama game to turn the season around and, despite the loss, might just do it again this year. The Aggie offense looked competent, but the main story was Alabama’s offense without Bryce Young. Backup Jalen Milroe struggled to throw the ball and turned it over three times.
Tennessee 40, LSU 13. The Tigers’ 31–16 win over Mississippi State is increasingly looking like the outlier in a weird first season for Brian Kelly. LSU opened this game with a dazzling array of special teams miscues and strange coaching decisions that allowed the Vols to jump to an early lead in Baton Rouge and never look back. Next week: Tide-Vols in Knoxville. Should be a good one.
Georgia 42, Auburn 10. This was the more ho-hum game of the two major expected blowouts. Auburn just isn’t good, and Georgia is.
South Carolina 24, Kentucky 14. Will Levis was out for Kentucky, which is the main reason this upset was possible. But credit to the Gamecocks for realizing Spencer Rattler isn’t going to win the Heisman in Columbia and going with a more run-heavy, conservative offense that allows them to win with defense and special teams. It’s working so far.
Florida 24, Mizzou 17. Mizzou feels close. They took Georgia to the wire and then did the same in the Swamp. But losses are losses, and Mizzou is 2-4, with Tennessee and Kentucky still on the schedule. Florida is just chugging along.
Ole Miss 52, Vanderbilt 28. This was a trap game that looked dicey for the first half, until the Rebels pulled away.
Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow us on Twitter.
The latest from Fayette Villains, straight to your inbox
Enter your email to subscribe and receive new post alerts and other updates. You can unsubscribe at any time.