We’ve now opened picking season with two straight weeks over .500. Let’s review how those went and get on to game picks for Week 7.
Week 6 Recap
- Games: 50
- ATS Record: 31-19 (62%)
- ATS Variance: 13.3
That’s two excellent weeks to open the season. Here’s where we stand for the year:
- Games: 105
- ATS Record: 61-44 (59%)
- ATS Variance: 13.8
Our totals predictions (over/under) have been pretty badly off this year, but the spreads have been the best I’ve seen from this model since I built it almost four years ago. Let’s keep it up!
Best picks
There weren’t any big upsets called like we saw last week, nor were there many spreads picked perfectly (one this week after four last week). But there were plenty of good calls.
Georgia State 41, Georgia Southern 33. Vegas: Georgia State by 2.5. Model: Georgia State by 8. This was the only game where the model’s pick was within one point of the actual spread.
Buffalo 38, Bowling Green 7. Vegas: Buffalo by 1.5. Model: Buffalo by 20. Our model saw a blowout coming and got it right.
Notre Dame 28, BYU 20. Vegas: Notre Dame by 2.5. Model: Notre Dame by 11. We had the Irish easily covering a close spread in this one.
Worst picks
Our model didn’t whiff on any outlandish claim. It only had one enormous miss.
Texas 49, Oklahoma 0. Vegas: Texas by 6. Model: Texas by 4. Uhhh, Sooners? You guys okay?
Picks for Week 7
Here are a few picks for this week.
BYU by 1 over Arkansas. Vegas: BYU -3. The Cougars opened as 3-point favorites, but line has since flipped to favor the Hogs by 3 points. This seems to be largely due to the health of BYU – star receiver Gunnar Romney and quarterback Jaren Hall are banged up – and not the news that KJ Jefferson will play, since I would assume Vegas already knew that.
Tennessee by 7 over Alabama. Vegas: Alabama -7. We have an upset call in Knoxville! This result would shake things up. Again, the Bryce Young injury is not accounted for in any way in this model.
LSU by 8 over Florida. Vegas: Florida -3. Another upset call, this one in the Swamp. Our model is probably overrating LSU for its win over Mississippi State, as LSU has been pedestrian otherwise. But then again, so has Florida.
Minnesota by less than 1 over Illinois. Vegas: Minnesota -3.5. The projected score is 16-15 (rounded), but Bret Bielema’s team can seize control over the Big Ten West with a win here.
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