It’s a huge game for both Arkansas and Auburn. Both programs desperately need wins. An Arkansas loss will leave the Hogs scrambling just to get to 6-6, while an Auburn loss makes a bowl extremely unlikely and will also leave Auburn with an active losing streak against every SEC West opponent.
The talk of Auburn’s season has been the precarious status of Bryan Harsin, the second-year coach who is just 9-11 and was almost ousted by the school’s boosters after last year. There’s zero doubt he’ll be let go by season’s end, so the only question is whether he’ll be fired in-season.
Motivation, then, could be a factor. To this point, Auburn’s players have played hard for their coach. They nearly came back against Ole Miss after falling behind early before their open date. But after an extra week to think things over, multiple Tigers left the program and entered their name into the transfer portal. There remains a decent chance that at some point, it will all fall apart. That will probably happen suddenly, and it could happen Saturday.
Meet the Tigers
Confused by any of the advanced stats you see here? Be sure to check out the glossary.
We met Auburn, the city and the university, earlier this week, looking into how an 18th-century political poem is behind the nickname “The Plains” that is so often applied.
Now let’s meet the Tigers on the field.
Model pick: Auburn 31, Arkansas 27. The model doesn’t consider injuries, so Arkansas’ 40-17 loss to Mississippi State is really hurting, as is that inexcusable loss to Texas A&M.
These two teams have played very difficult schedules. Auburn’s had to play Penn State, Georgia, LSU, and Ole Miss already, and Alabama remains on the schedule.
Scouting Report
Auburn’s offense is incredibly boom-or-bust. They are among the nation’s most explosive teams both on the ground and through the air, but they are incredibly inefficient. A huge number of their plays go backwards or end in turnovers, and they fall off-schedule constantly.
The Tiger defense is fairly strong, especially against the pass. They don’t allow many big plays and get off the field on third down, but they are vulnerable to strong run games.
When Auburn has the ball
Harsin is an offensive coach, so Auburn’s issues in that department are on him. The Tigers have dealt with major turnover on offense. First, at coordinator: Mike Bobo coordinated the offense in 2021 but was let go after the season. Harsin hired Seattle Seahawks quarterbacks coach Austin Davis, who verbally agreed to the job but then backed out, forcing Harsin to instead promote receivers coach Eric Kiesau. Kiesau had coordinated Boise State’s offense for two seasons under Harsin.
Then there’s quarterback. After Bo Nix got injured late last year, the Tigers turned to TJ Finley. After the season, when Nix transferred, Auburn also signed Texas A&M transfer Zach Calzada. Finley won the battle and started the first couple of games, but when he got hurt (and wasn’t playing well), Auburn skipped over Calzada and installed freshman Robby Ashford, who has commanded the offense ever since.
The Tigers do only one thing well: big plays. They are very inefficient, horrific in the red zone, and prone to turnovers. The Hogs, for their part, also only do one thing well, and that’s forcing turnovers. For the Hogs’ defense, the “busts” in Auburn’s boom-or-bust offense need to be bigger than the booms. You’ll take three or four long plays if you also force three or four turnovers.
Despite a fairly run-heavy offense (21st in standard downs run rate), Auburn gets knocked off schedule way too often, thanks largely to negative plays (127th in havoc rate).
Arkansas is obviously horrible in must-pass situations, which is why health in the secondary will be key to the Razorback defense.
Nickel or Dime?
Barry Odom has had an extra week to answer the biggest question for the defense: should the Hogs stick with their base Nickel defense, or revert back to the base Dime defense that they’ve used for most of the last two seasons?
Some background might be helpful. Odom has, for most of his career, used 4-man fronts, like a 4-3/4-2-5. But good coaches work with what they have, and at Arkansas in 2020, Odom discovered an abundance of experienced defensive backs and almost no pass rushers. The 3-2-6 Dime defense gave Arkansas the best chance to compete, as the Hogs showed in huge wins over Mississippi State and Ole Miss. The Dime has a few advantages: it’s almost impossible to create big plays against it, and the zone looks give defenders a good chance to intercept passes. It has drawbacks, however: first, it gets almost no pressure, so experienced, accurate quarterbacks (Kyle Trask and Kellen Mond come to mind) can shred it, and it is not strong against the run, so patient offenses can grind out very long drives on the ground.
With Jalen Catalon manning the back end, the Dime was easily the best option for the Hogs to compete. However, after Catalon went down in 2021, the Hogs suddenly had a harder time getting stops. After last season’s open date, the Hogs finished the year mostly running a mix of the Dime along with the more traditional 4-2-5 Nickel defense. The Nickel gets more of a pass rush and can contain the run much more effectively, but it is less forgiving for the secondary against the pass. After the regular season, the Hogs used the bowl prep period to fully commit to the Nickel, which Arkansas ran exclusively in the Outback Bowl.
That series of events made it quite clear that the Hogs intended to fully transition to the Nickel defense as a base in 2022. The Hogs hit the portal for some traditional edge rushers (Jordan Domineck and Landon Jackson) to complete the look.
But… things haven’t gone as planned. The Hogs shut out Cincinnati while Catalon and Myles Slusher were on the field, but after both went down, the Hogs’ ability to defend the pass with five defensive backs went with it. The Bearcats ended up throwing for 323 yards, and then Spencer Rattler and Missouri State’s Jason Shelley had season-highs for pass yards in Fayetteville. Hog safeties simply cannot cover the entire field, and both man and zone coverage have been subject to frequent busts.
Adjustments either haven’t worked or caused other things to break. After the run defense was strong over the first couple games, the Hogs’ attempts to blitz while still protecting the safeties caused the run defense to fall apart. The Hogs have tried mixing up coverages and personnel, and it hasn’t worked. The Hogs don’t have an SEC-level secondary with Catalon and Slusher out and there’s nothing that can be done with it.
Out of options, the Hogs reverted back to the Dime defense against BYU, after using it all game against Mississippi State. The Cougars scored three touchdowns in four possessions against the Nickel but managed just two scores in seven possessions against the Dime. Sam Pittman said after the game that he told Odom to go back to the Dime, implying that switching defenses was a contingency that had been prepared for.
With Slusher, Malik Chavis, Latavious Brini, and Jayden Johnson expected back – everyone who is “not out for the season” should be available, per Pittman this week – Odom has to decide whether to move forward with the Nickel and hope that improved health will lead to improved play, or whether finishing this season in a Dime gives the Hogs the best chance to get stops right now. I would assume the answer will be Nickel, especially if Hudson Clark has taken to the safety position enough that he can replace Simeon Blair, a veteran who has been the secondary’s primary weak point this year. Clark and Brini at safety, Slusher at nickel, and Chavis and Dwight McGlothern at cornerback seem like the best five guys the Hogs can field.
But if the Hogs answer this question wrong – that is, if they try to commit to the Nickel but continue to get burned on defense despite being healthy – then it will be far too late to try and fix the defense this season.
Tank Bigsby (92 rushes, +0.09 EPA/rush, 5.6 yards/rush) is a solid runner. Only 27% of his runs gain 6+ yards, but he averages 15.8 yards on those runs (9.8 bonus yards per opportunity). He hasn’t been given much cushion – this is a theme for Auburn – as the Tigers are just 118th in line yards per rush and 106th in stuff rate.
Through the air, similar story. Auburn is 106th in sack rate as their protection has been terrible all year. When QB Robby Ashford isn’t running for his life, he’s capable of hitting huge passes, helping Auburn rank 4th in passing explosiveness (points per successful pass). That’s a potential issue for Arkansas’ struggling secondary.
When Arkansas has the ball
Turnover has also been an issue for Auburn’s defense. Harsin’s hire of former Vanderbilt coach Derek Mason was a steal, but after a strong 2021 season, Mason jumped ship for Oklahoma State, even taking a pay cut. That was widely viewed as the first sign to the outside world that something was amiss on the plain.
Auburn’s defense isn’t bad. They do a lot of things well: limiting explosive plays (22nd), for example. They allow less than half of drives against them to get inside their 40 (43rd). But they’re often cursed with bad starting field position (113th), allow opponents to finish drives with points too well (107th), and allow too many long drives (82nd).
Auburn’s main strength is getting off the field on third down. They limit explosive plays in obvious passing situations (opposite of Arkansas’ defense), but they are vulnerable to a strong early-downs run game, which is exactly what Arkansas will try and do. Opponents tend to be ultra run-heavy against them (68% run rate on standard downs, 127th) on standard downs, and Auburn’s D is only 79th in run defense on standard downs.
If Arkansas can maintain a high leverage rate and then get back on schedule when falling behind, the Hogs should be little trouble moving the ball.
You can see Auburn’s very pedestrian run defense, which will be Arkansas’ angle of attack. If the Hogs can create a lot of 6+ runs then they should be able to move the ball just fine. The passing game, meanwhile, has a tough test but may can ace it if they can get the Tigers off-balance.
We’ve discussed Arkansas’ issues creating big plays in the run game, but the Hogs had more success against BYU using more gap scheme runs. Now, BYU’s defense was horrible, so there’s obviously no guarantee that’s something that would actually work against Auburn, but it would not surprise me to see more looks like the G Counter we saw frequently in that game.
Keys to the Game
The busts must be bigger than the booms. Auburn’s boom-or-bust offense creates a ton of big plays but also a lot of negative plays and turnovers. The Hogs’ defense can live with a few big plays if they make sure that the negative plays and turnovers are even more numerous.
Control the game on the ground. Auburn’s defense has struggled against the run. The Hogs can control field position and suck the life out of the home crowd with an efficient run game. Bonus points if the Hogs can create more explosive runs like they did against BYU.
Finish good drives with touchdowns. Arkansas’ overall scoring opportunity efficiency isn’t horrible (43rd) but the Hogs are 12th in overall red zone scoring. Auburn has struggled to stop drives that get close to the goal line, so the Hogs have to finish drives well. Definitely no turnovers, but don’t settle for too many field goals either.
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