Saturday’s 13-10 loss to LSU puts the Razorbacks at 5-5. A bowl game is no longer a guarantee, as the Hogs still have to face 8-2 Ole Miss and then a road trip against a Mizzou team also fighting for a bowl.
Against LSU, the Hogs wasted a valiant effort by the defense. We’ve already discussed how Sam Pittman’s in-the-moment decision-making, which mostly worked during his first two seasons, has mostly let the Hogs down this year. This game was the pinnacle, with key moments in the game coming down to bizarre or late decisions by the head Hog. Still, the game was very close, and it is encouraging to see the defense put together two straight good games.
Advanced Stats
Confused by any of the advanced stats you see here? Be sure to check out the glossary.
Arkansas’ defense delivered every chance to win this game, holding LSU to 13 points and under 300 yards. The defense even delivered amazing field position for the offense all game. But despite the average drive starting nearly at the 40-yard line, the Hogs only had three drives get inside the LSU 40. The 94-yard touchdown drive was responsible for more than one-third of the Hogs’ total yards, and about half of Arkansas’ yards came on Cade Fortin’s four drives over the game’s final 20-plus minutes.
Arkansas’ defense completely flipped the script, going from very bad on passing downs all season to very good in this game. The defense did allow a 3rd-and-18 conversion on the opening drive, but were almost perfect after that. Despite LSU managing to stay on schedule, the Tigers were inefficient (34% success) and unable to recover when knocked off schedule (18% passing downs success).
The offense had the same issue, but the inverse. The Hogs were atrocious on early downs (-0.39 EPA/play on standard downs) and unable to stay on schedule because of it.
For two straight weeks, Arkansas has asked its offensive line to go win a football game when the quarterback is injured. For two straight weeks, the line has completely failed to answer the bell. The Hogs had no running room at all against LSU. That’s incredibly disappointing. Go ahead and take all those Joe Moore Award announcements and ProFootballFocus grades and toss them into Lake Fayetteville.
Remember that sacks count as passes so… wow. Interceptions count as as a loss of 45 adjusted yards, so LSU finished with zero adjusted net passing yards.
The sack numbers are also hilarious, and LSU was just good enough at getting pressure to win. The Hogs sacked Jayden Daniels on seven of his 22 non-scramble dropbacks, which is amazing.
Up Next
The Hogs are fortunate enough to draw two straight opponents coming off emotional games against Alabama. Ole Miss put up a good fight, but lost 30-24 to fall to 8-2. The Rebels have been pretty inconsistent, but their offensive line is becoming a problem, so that will be something to watch.
Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow us on Twitter.
The latest from Fayette Villains, straight to your inbox
Enter your email to subscribe and receive new post alerts and other updates. You can unsubscribe at any time.