Arkansas wasted an incredible defensive effort in Saturday’s 13-10 loss to LSU. The offense, playing without KJ Jefferson, struggled to move the football throughout the game, even when the defense provided it with excellent field position.
Final Thoughts
Here are a few final thoughts before we look at the advanced stats in the Box Score Breakdown.
Arkansas cannot rely on its offensive line
Maybe it was wishful thinking, but I think Hog fans thought that with the hiring of Sam Pittman, the Hogs would, if nothing else, have a tremendous offensive line. To be fair, this offensive line isn’t bad – it’s much better than Bret Bielema’s post-Pittman lines and the two Chad Morris lines – but any hope that the line could deliver victories by itself has to be out the window after the last two weeks.
With an injured quarterback, Arkansas desperately needed to be able to run the football, but the line has not been able to provide the needed cushion. Also notice LSU’s adjustment: when the Hogs had them on their heels following Cade Fortin’s touchdown pass to Matt Landers to cut the lead to 13-10, what did LSU do? Did they change coverages, trying to fool an inexperienced quarterback or make it harder for receivers to get open? Nope, they blitzed. They saw the Razorback line as a weakness and went after it. And it worked. Arkansas was starting a backup right tackle, but the Hogs made zero effort to adjust to Harold Perkins, who had four sacks, a couple other pressures, and two forced fumbles.
I tend to think that the older, 2000s era of college football where tremendous offensive line play could mask poor quarterback play (see: much of the Houston Nutt tenure at Arkansas) is probably over. In the modern game, good offensive line is important, but you aren’t going to win many games based solely on the offensive line. Running lanes are easier to open by throwing the ball, and you need creative playcalling and good quarterback play if you want to do anything on offense.
The defense might be alright
That was a pretty tremendous effort by Arkansas’ defense. It does appear that the 4-2-5 defense is now out the window, as the Hogs didn’t even bother starting the game in it, instead going straight to the 3-man front that has provided most of the success for Barry Odom’s three seasons in Fayetteville. The 3-man front was just good enough at controlling the run, but it was devastating against the pass, recording seven sacks and several other pressures, while taking everything down the field away from LSU. The Tigers’ lone touchdown came on a short field (more on that below), and LSU was held under 300 yards for the game. Impressive.
Pittman needs to stop coaching based on feelings in the moment
Sam Pittman has been extremely indecisive as a head coach. Back in 2020, you expected that. Arkansas hired a career offensive line coach to try and resurrect the program, so some of the small in-game decisions were not the biggest factors at that time.
And give credit to Pittman: those are only issues now because he’s done everything else right to elevate the program to this level. But he went and hired super-agent Jimmy Sexton in the offseason to negotiate a $6 million per year contract, so the time for on-the-job training is over. The Hogs don’t have an ol’ line coach, they have a highly-paid SEC head coach.
And to be even fairer: Pittman’s “coaching based on vibes” style worked really well in 2021, as most of his in-the-moment decisions turned to gold. But sometimes you just have some bad luck, and Pittman’s decision-making is having a bad year.
There are three issues where I’ve seen indecisiveness cost the Hogs.
Trying to flip momentum on fourth down
I would compare Pittman’s coaching style on fourth downs to a poker player, who sits quietly in the corner, playing very carefully hand after hand… until suddenly going all-in on Ace high for no clear reason. I don’t think this is strategic: I think he just coaches based on feelings in the moment, which causes him to be indecisive and suddenly change his mind. It’s like he subscribes to Nolan Richardson’s theory that every game has a single breaking point, but he just misjudges where that breaking point is, and instead pushes the envelope way before he needs to.
Against Liberty, Pittman went for it on 4th-and-5 at midfield in a 0-0 game in the first quarter, with an injured quarterback. The Hogs didn’t get it, and Liberty got a short field for their first touchdown in a game they won by less than a touchdown. Rather than learn from that, Pittman did it again Saturday. Trailing 6-3 early in the third quarter, Pittman went for it on 4th-and-4 from midfield, didn’t get it, and set LSU up for their lone touchdown, which came on a 40-yard drive.
When to decide to go for it
The other big fourth-down decision came in the first half after Arkansas recovered an LSU fumble at the 10. The Hogs chose to go for it on 4th-and-goal at the 3. Obviously, they could have kicked the field goal – in hindsight, they probably should have, given the final margin – but what’s more interesting is the full sequence.
Normally, the head coach would tell the offensive coordinator before third down that he has four downs to work with. That way, the OC can plan his third down knowing he has fourth down. But when did Pittman tell Briles he wanted to go for it? My suspicion is that Pittman didn’t make up his mind until after third down. That’s based on previous decisions by Pittman (see: 2021 Alabama game, where Pittman sent the punt team out before changing his mind), plus the third-down playcall. Briles called a quarterback sweep on third-and-goal at the 2. If Briles knew he had two downs, I would hope he would try to run straight up the middle, as LSU was not in a goal line defense. But if he only had one play, the sweep might have provided a better chance to score.
So I don’t know when the communication occurred, but something went wrong on that sequence. If Pittman didn’t tell Briles until fourth down that he wanted to go for it, then that’s on Pittman. But if Pittman did tell Briles he had four downs before third down, then I really don’t like the third-down playcall.
Backup quarterback situation
The backup quarterback situation has been a revolving door, but Pittman’s comments – and the tone of his comments – have been very interesting, and suggest a (small) rift between him and Briles, or at least some significant indecisiveness.
Based on everything I’ve seen from both coaches, here’s how I suspect the quarterback situation has played out:
- Briles was unsure of Malik Hornsby’s passing ability, and sought to recruit Cade Fortin, in whom he saw potential, as the new backup.
- Hornsby realized he was likely being replaced, and entered his name into the transfer portal.
- Pittman – a loyal guy who likes to reward loyalty – talked Hornsby into staying, promising a role for him. Hornsby was moved part-time to receiver.
- By the end of fall camp, Briles wanted Fortin to be the backup quarterback, while Hornsby – unable to crack the rotation as a full-time receiver – was stuck as third-string quarterback with some special plays he could run as a receiver.
- After the disastrous trick play sequence against Texas A&M, Pittman and Briles agreed to scrap the Hornsby package, leaving Hornsby as the third-string quarterback only. Fortin then played against Alabama, playing decently, and started the Mississippi State game the week after.
- Just a few drives into the Mississippi State game, Pittman ordered Briles to replace Fortin with Hornsby (it’s possible they both agreed on that change). After Hornsby played better, Pittman – frustrated at Briles and believing his initial intuition that the Hogs should have just stuck with Hornsby was correct – threw Briles under the bus (without naming him) in his postgame press conference, lamenting that the move to receiver hadn’t worked, but not taking any responsibility for it.
- Hornsby became the full-time backup, getting all first-team reps heading to the LSU game.
All of that led to Saturday, where Hornsby, who has been given numerous chances, has clearly demonstrated that he is not a capable passer. Despite repeatedly having open receivers, Hornsby couldn’t pull the trigger, taking off constantly on scrambles that mostly went nowhere. After Fortin was finally inserted into the game, the offense started roared to life for a short bit, until the LSU pass rush finally finished the Hogs off.
If the above speculation is correct, then it’s more of the same: Pittman’s job as the head coach is to be decisive about personnel and roles on the team, and Briles’ job is to make the smartest micro-decisions within that framework. It sure looks to me like Pittman somewhat “went along” with Briles’ thinking on Fortin, only to change his mind and yank the rug out from under him the second things went awry. That’s not fair to Fortin or Hornsby, who have had their confidence shot and have had to split second-team reps all season (and first-team reps when KJ is out).
That’s just all season… another question is why in the world did the Hogs let Hornsby have two drives in the second half, including the ultimately-fatal turnover on downs? It was clear by halftime that Hornsby didn’t have it, so I’m not sure why Fortin didn’t come in by that time. The whole thing just seems botched to me.
Scores of Note
UConn 36, Liberty 33. The Connecticut Huskies somehow figured out how to rush for 208 yards on Liberty’s vaunted twisting defense. Yikes.
Auburn 13, Texas A&M 10. The Aggies are officially not bowling. There’s now a very high chance that Arkansas ends up being their only SEC win. Goodness.
Alabama 30, Ole Miss 24. Lane Kiffin’s team just couldn’t quite finish against Alabama. The Tide may be flawed as a team, but Bryce Young isn’t.
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