Arkansas breezed past Louisville 80-54 in its Maui Invitational opener, and now gets a top-10 matchup against Creighton in what figures to be one of the biggest games of the year. Let’s break down the Louisville game and then take a look at the Bluejays.
Box Score Breakdown: Arkansas 80, Louisville 54
It took awhile for Arkansas to impose its will, but the Hogs used 15 second-half turnovers and plenty of rim runs to finish off a bad Louisville team.
The Hogs didn’t really speed Louisville up very well until the second half, so the game finished at 70 possessions, slightly slower than Arkansas would probably prefer.
Arkansas has been insanely good at turning transition possessions into transition points. Louisville actually and more transition possessions, but the Hogs were +11 in points. As we discussed in the preview, the Hogs got points off turnovers, though those 12 points were mostly bunched up during the big second-half run that put the game away.
Arkansas’ shot selection was excellent, and that helped the Razorbacks easily outshoot the Cardinals, who took more than 40% of their shots from midrange. That’s two straight games that the Hogs have shot well from beyond the arc, which is a very promising sign
Turnovers, however, were again were an issue for the Hogs. That’s something they have to work on.
We noted in the preview that El Ellis and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield were the two most important Cardinals. So where can you find them? At the bottom: they were the two worst players on the court. Incredibly, this is the third time in four games that an opponent’s best player for the season has been its worst player against Arkansas: Fordham and South Dakota State suffered the same fate.
For the Hogs, Makhel Mitchell was awesome in his first extended playing time, while Anthony Black was the team leader in net points produced and team plus-minus. Trevon Brazile didn’t look great during his foul-limited time on the floor, but he’ll get a chance to redeem himself against Creighton.
Meet the Bluejays
Creighton was a 9-seed last season, reaching the Round of 32 before falling to Kansas. The Bluejays were tough defensively but struggled on offense. However, four starters are back, and the Bluejays added South Dakota State transfer Baylor Scheierman, an elite 3-point shooter and all-around scorer. Scheierman seems like the missing piece, and Creighton entered the season favored to win the Big East and make a potential run at the Final Four.
Coach Greg McDermott has coached a lot of basketball. He’s in his 13th season with Creighton – he’s the guy who finally replaced Arkansas coach-for-a-day Dana Altman – posting a 280-137 record with seven NCAA Tournament appearances. However, his teams have struggled in the postseason, with just one Sweet 16 appearance. This could be the year that changes.
Model pick: Creighton 70, Arkansas 65.
The Jays are unbeaten, with Monday’s 76-65 win over a solid Texas Tech team as the feather in their cap. Everything is clicking right now, with Scheierman fitting in nicely to this offense. They don’t ask him to do too much, as the returning veterans are probably a Sweet 16 collection of talent themselves.
When Creighton has the rock
Creighton’s offense has a lot in common with Gonzaga’s: traditional pass-first point guard, sequences usually begin with a pick-and-roll, halfcourt offense run with good pace. They like to park a true center under the hoop and surround him with jump shooters. You’ll see lots of jump shots and very few traditional post-ups. They are vulnerable if the shots aren’t falling, which is usually why they exit early in the NCAA Tournament.
This year’s team is unique in that is has a backup plan: the Jays can also create shots well. They don’t turn the ball over and they are very good on the offensive glass. That’s going to help them in the Dance.
Look at that halfcourt battle!
Creighton doesn’t force many turnovers – we’ll see that below – so they don’t get many transition buckets from steals, but they will get good volume in transition otherwise. They are incredibly dangerous because they get into their early offense very fast, like this sequence, where they run a stack pick-and-roll to create an open transition 3 for Scheierman:
Hog defenders have to be very disciplined in quick-change situations, as Creighton will be ready to run its offense about as fast as any team in the country.
You can see Creighton’s two big weaknesses: they don’t get the rim, and, on a related note, they don’t get to the line. They will try and launch 3-pointers but are content with open midrange 2s as well. They weren’t good at jump shooting last year and, as you can see, they’re still not elite this year. But they avoid turnovers, crash the offensive glass, and cash in on their shots at the rim.
Personnel
Hello, Makhel Mitchell! He made good use of his chance against Louisville and is (for now) Arkansas’ best player. That will probably change as the sample size grows larger.
The Jays have two guys that make things go. First is their point guard, Ryan Nembhard, brother of former Gonzaga point guard Andrew Nembhard, whose career ended at the hands of Au’Diese Toney in March. The Hogs will want a Toney-like performance against the other Nembhard in this game. Ryan is a pass-first point guard who creates open shots for his teammates. For the season, he has 29 assists and just four turnovers, which is incredibly good. It’s no surprise he is tied for first on the team in plus-minus: the Jays are +49 per 100 possessions he’s on the floor. His matchup against Anthony Black will be watched by every NBA scout.
But even if you clamp down on Nembhard, you have another problem: Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton’s 7-foot-1 center who is easily their best player by all of our advanced stats (and better than every Hog so far this year). Kalkbrenner is exactly the type of big that gave Arkansas problems last year: a huge guy who is mostly parked under the basket. He’s shooting 81% from the floor. At one point this season, Kalkbrenner had 19 straight made field goals and only one dribble during them. This is a normal touch for him:
Kalkbrenner makes Creighton’s normally-finesse offense unique, thanks to his size and skill in the low post. This will be a huge test for whoever the Hogs decide to defend him with. The Mitchell twins could be more physical, while Trevon Brazile gives you more athleticism. I’m interested to see what Muss decides to do.
There is a potentially interesting factor: Kalkbrenner’s ankle. He turned it late in the first half against Texas Tech, played through it, and appeared to aggravate it late in the game. It hasn’t had much time to heal, so that could end up playing a big role if he’s limited.
Other guys include Scheierman, the 6’7 sharpshooter who is sitting on a decent 55% EFG. The other starting forward is 6’7 Arthur Kaluma, who was excellent with 18 points against Texas Tech. The shooting guard is 6’4 sophomore Trey Alexander, who shoots an excellent 66% EFG. The Jays get some drop off when they go into the bench, but the starting five is among the nation’s best.
When Arkansas has the rock
Creighton will play a very conservative man defense. By conservative, I mean they don’t take many risks: Arkansas’ man defense will take risks, meaning they force turnovers, but occasionally foul or allow offensive rebounds as a result. Creighton’s defense does not force many turnovers, but their big strengths are rarely fouling and clearing the defensive glass.
Creighton’s transition defense is vulnerable, and that’s going to be a good bet for the Hogs to attack. The Jays are dominant in halfcourt largely due to Kalkbrenner’s rim protection, but that can be negated by an offense that can beat the Jays down the court.
The Jays’ defense has some vulnerabilities against 3-pointers… but Arkansas might have some difficulty exploiting those. But getting to the rim has been a challenge due to the shot-blocking presence inside. Opponents instead have settled for way too many midrange jumpers, which is making Creighton’s field goal defense look really good.
The good news is that Texas Tech had some success by attacking Kalkbrenner directly. They were able to pull him away from the basket on pick-and-rolls and then get there before he could get back:
On other occasions, Tech’s more athletic guards were able to attack him directly off the dribble:
That would be the Ricky Council (or Anthony Black) territory.
What’s concerning is that Texas Tech did a lot of things well and lost anyway. The Red Raiders got into transition well (14 transition points off rebounds), got to the rim, shot a decent percentage, and avoided turnovers. But they let Creighton score 71 points in halfcourt on an incredible 129.1 efficiency. The 76-65 score suggests a defensive struggle, but the game was played at a snail’s pace (63 possessions), so it was more of a shootout than it appeared. The Jays shot 64% EFG and that was all it took. Arkansas will need to make Creighton uncomfortable by forcing a faster game than Texas Tech was able to.
Keys to the Game
Muck it up. We wrote this in the Gonzaga preview back in March: “This has to be a rockfight. It has to be the ugliest game of the NCAA Tournament.” That’s basically what happened, as Arkansas took away Andrew Nembhard’s ability to be a distributor and mucked up Gonzaga’s ability to run its offense. Against Creighton’s similar scheme, the same strategy applies. The Jays have had issues with defenses that are extremely aggressive against their early offense (Texas Tech had some initial success on Monday).
Go right at Kalkbrenner. This would probably be a key even if Kalkbrenner’s ankle wasn’t a concern. Trying to avoid him just makes you play Creighton’s game: lots of jump shots, not many free throws. The Hogs have to avoid the temptation to settle for low-percentage shots and take every chance to go right at him.
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