Arkansas is headed to Maui’s third-place game following its 90-87 ref show loss to Creighton in the second round. The opponent is San Diego State, another top-20 team.
Box Score Breakdown: Creighton 90, Arkansas 87
This was a heck of a game, filled with high-level basketball and an Elite Eight feel (Creighton fans: that’s the round after the Sweet 16). It was good for both teams to be tested in a game like this. For Arkansas, hanging around without Nick Smith and with some incredibly-lopsided officiating is really impressive. Eric Musselman summarized it nicely: “I can’t see… facing more adversity than we faced tonight.” Pretty much.
The Hogs got the fast game they wanted, but couldn’t get enough stops despite an excellent offensive performance.
One day after scoring 71 halfcourt points against Texas Tech, the Bluejays had 70 on Tuesday. Arkansas was at its best offensively attacking before Ryan Kalkbrenner could get set up under the rim, but the Hogs were fine in halfcourt too.
Defensively, nothing was fine. The Razorbacks mostly kept Creighton from running, but the Jays got points on more than half of their halfcourt possessions, though 28 second-half free throws were the biggest factor in that.
Creighton’s 36.7 FTAR will probably be its season-high. There’s really no reason for that many ticky-tack fouls to have been called on Arkansas. When Jay Bilas – who has for years complained that not enough fouls are called in college basketball – is whining that too many fouls are being called, you know you have an issue.
The Razorbacks, meanwhile, broke their bad turnover pattern, got to the rim, and made 3-pointers at a good rate. Those are definitely positives! The defense letting Creighton get 57% of its shots at the rim is really bad. The Hogs contested those shots well, but ultimately allowed way too many of them.
On a related note…
The biggest disappointment, to me, was Makhi Mitchell, and I thought that before I saw these numbers. After getting destroyed by 7-footers last season, Muss went out and signed the Mitchell twins to give Arkansas more physicality under the basket. But Makhi got his lunch eaten by Kalkbrenner.
After Arkansas tied the game at 81, Kalkbrenner shed Makhi for an easy dunk to give Creighton the lead for good:
Arkansas’ defensive scheme is built around winning 1-on-1s. You just can’t give up a dunk here. This is not something that getting Nick Smith back will fix. This will be a problem if the Hogs can’t find the right guy to be in the game at that moment.
Makhel was much better in his seven minutes (the Hogs were even +2 while he was out there) and perhaps should have been in the game late. Kamani Johnson also didn’t play at all. Muss knew during the offseason that Trevon Brazile cannot defend true centers, so he invested a lot into the Mitchell brothers for games like this. Test one: failed.
Meet the Aztecs
San Diego State has been a mainstay in March, making the NCAA Tournament almost every season since 2010. They have just two Sweet 16s to show for it – 2011 and 2014 – but they are an annual competitor and the most consistent program in a strong Mountain West for more than a decade.
For years, the Aztecs, like other Mountain West schools, were known for good defense and a very slow offense. But they’ve managed to flip the script more recently, with good offenses in 2020 and 2021. The offense struggled last season, but they are off to a hot start in 2023. Time will tell if they can sustain it.
Model pick: San Diego State 78, Arkansas 74.
The Aztecs took their first loss to Arizona on Tuesday night. They beat Ohio State in the first round and also have a road win over Stanford on their resume.
When the Aztecs have the rock
San Diego State runs a pretty standard motion offense. Statistically, they do pretty much everything well. Their very fast pace is a major departure from other SDSU teams across recent years.
Forcing turnovers has long been the hallmark of a San Diego State defense, and turning steals into points remains one of their most efficient ways to score. But this team is also off to a blazing start in halfcourt, although Arizona finally tossed some cold water on that on Tuesday night.
SDSU’s stat profile is the opposite of Creighton’s: tons of shots at the rim and free throws, and very few 3-point attempts. They are below average on the offensive glass, but that’s really the only knock against them.
The concern is that San Diego State might do what Creighton just did to the Hogs on the interior. As we’ll see below, the Aztecs don’t have a 7-footer like Kalkbrenner, but Muss still needs to figure out who his main physical center is: Makhi, Makhel, or Kamani? He’ll get another look at his options in this game.
Personnel
San Diego State has a very deep roster: nine guys average at least 10 minutes per game and zero guys average more than 30.
The main guy here is 5’10 senior point guard Darrion Trammell, who leads the Aztecs in scoring (14.4) and minutes (28.2) per game. He played the last two seasons at Seattle U, where he averaged 20 and 17 points per game as an extremely high-use scorer. He’s taken a slightly lesser role at SDSU, but he’s still sitting at 25% usage and a team-best 97 overall grade. Trammell isn’t an elite shooter (47% EFG, though he is a 3-point threat), but his turnover rate is only 9% and he already has 17 assists. He will be the focus of Arkansas’ on-ball defense.
The highest-usage Aztec is 6’9 forward Jaedon LeDee, the team’s sixth man who is the energy guy off the bench. A career backup at Ohio State and TCU, LeDee has settled into a role as a volume scorer for the Aztecs. His offensive rating (99.2) isn’t great, nor is his shooting (46% EFG), so the Hogs can probably live with him trying force shots.
The final guy worth a closer look is Matt Bradley, the 6’4 senior combo guard who was SDSU’s best offensive player last year (16.9 ppg). Bradley is off to a rough start, ranking last on the team in basically everything: overall grade, net points produced per 100 possessions, team plus-minus, offensive rating, and EFG. His minutes have been reduced this year due to his play, but he still has a whopping 28% usage, meaning that he’s going to try and score while he’s in there. Assuming he doesn’t suddenly catch fire, he’s the guy Arkansas probably wants shooting for SDSU.
Other key guys include 6’2 guard Lamont Butler, a defensive specialist who is second on the team in overall grade (97) thanks mostly to his 13 steals. He’s a good scorer off dribble penetration as well. Then there’s 6’6 small forward Micah Parrish, a low-usage but high-efficiency scorer off the bench. He’s shooting 40% from beyond the arc this year. And finally, there’s 6’10 center Nathan Mensah, a low-usage rim protection and rebounding specialist.
Overall, the Aztecs aren’t very big, with their starting backcourt going 5’10, 6’2, and 6’4, and their frontcourt at 6’7 and 6’10. The first two guys off the bench are 6’6 and 6’9. The Hogs need to use their height and athleticism advantage. Stopping Trammell is key, and then you want to force LeDee and Bradley to be ballhogs.
When Arkansas has the rock
Arkansas’ numbers jumped after last night while the Aztecs’ cratered. Arizona didn’t do much in transition (unusual for them) but punished the Aztecs in halfcourt, shooting 66% EFG and getting a ton of shots at the rim. Defensively, they followed the personnel strategy we mentioned above: they forced LeDee and Bradley to take a ton of the shots.
The Aztecs do a great job of getting back on defense and forcing opponents to take their time. Their halfcourt defense isn’t elite, though. This game figures to be a good opportunity for Anthony Black to take over and dissect the defense off the pick-and-roll in halfcourt sets.
San Diego State’s defense near the basket is very vulnerable. The Aztecs rebound well, but opponents shoot the ball too well near the hoop. As long as the Hogs don’t settle for too many jumpers, they should be able to score near the basket.
Keys to the Game
Get to the rim. The Aztec rim defense is very vulnerable… and Arkansas’ offense is very vulnerable when forced to shoot jumpers. The Hogs need to win in halfcourt by attacking the rim and using their big advantages in length and athleticism.
Find a reliable big. Makhi Mitchell had a chance to seize control of the starting 5 spot, but he was a disaster on defense against Creighton. San Diego State’s personnel is different, but they are still very dangerous around the rim. If Makhi’s not getting it done, then Makhel or Kamani Johnson need a longer look.
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