Arkansas is once again behind the 8-ball to start SEC play, but there’s no time for pouting, as two ranked teams are on the horizon. We start with Mizzou, off to a surprising 12-1 start in Dennis Gates’ first season. The Tigers bring a high-powered offense and shaky defense to Fayetteville.
Meet the Tigers
The Cuonzo Martin plan was simple: Martin was to hire the father of 5-star recruit Michael Porter Jr., land Porter, have a great team in his first season, and then use that season as a springboard to build a strong program.
Everything went well at first: Porter committed nine days after Martin was hired by Mizzou in 2017. But then Porter got hurt and ended up missing basically all of Mizzou’s 2018 season. The Tigers barely snuck into the NCAA Tournament and got pasted in the first round. Without the springboard, Martin never got things going. He went 78-77 in five seasons before being fired.
Credit to Mizzou: they didn’t follow up a bad hire with another bad one. Instead, they went for Cleveland State coach Dennis Gates. It was a sneaky-good hire. Gates never actually made an NCAA Tournament at Cleveland State, but he won the regular season Horizon League title twice. Not getting into the Dance would probably cause other schools to shy away, but Mizzou recognized that he’s a very good coach. Gates brought several guys from Cleveland State (and some other mid-majors) and combined them with pieces of Mizzou’s roster. So far, it’s working.
The Tigers got off a slow-ish start. They got into shootouts with Southern Indiana and Penn and then got blown out by rival Kansas. But ever since a halfcourt buzzer-beater went home to beat UCF, they’ve been on fire. They blasted rival Illinois and took it to Kentucky last week.
Mizzou has benefitted by blasting two teams that everyone knew were severely overrated. Illinois and Kentucky had a lot of preseason hype but have not looked like the 16th- and 19th-ranked teams at any point this season – our model thought Kentucky was a fringe bubble team before the Mizzou loss – but it was the Tigers that exposed them.
So while Mizzou has the 11th-best resume (only losing once, and that being to Kansas, helps), our model says they are only the 40th-best team. That’s still a heck of lot better than we thought they’d be in the preseason, but there is some reason to believe they will regress to the mean soon.
Model pick: Arkansas 85, Mizzou 75. Both teams play really fast, and Mizzou is very good on offense and bad on defense, so expect some points.
Scouting Report
Gates has tinkered with Mizzou’s defense all season after a rough start to the year. The Tigers still a majority man-to-man but they use a lot of zone, particularly 1-3-1, to keep opponents away from the rim. They are very aggressive, forcing a ton of turnovers to create fast breaks but also getting beat regularly and giving up a lot of open shots.
Offensively, they are a very NBA-style 5-out scheme played at extreme pace. All five players on the floor at all times are solid ballhandlers and can shoot 3-pointers. Their main goal is to screen until they get a mismatch on the perimeter so they can drive to the basket, or kick out for an open 3 if help comes.
They have a small lineup consisting of a lot of guard-type players. Like LSU, they have a nice mix of returners, transfers who came with the new coach, and transfers from other places. Also like LSU, they’ve meshed all of that together really nicely so far.
As always, the rankings here are out of the top 8 players by minutes played.
Kobe Brown, PF, 6’8
- Box Score Contribution: +5.9 (2nd)
- RAPM: 99 (1st)
- Offense RAPM: 100 (1st)
- Defense RAPM: 66 (2nd)
Brown is a familiar face, as he’s in his fourth season in Columbia and was Mizzou’s best player this year. He’s on another level right now as Gates’ scheme has him out on the perimeter more. A career 25% 3-point shooter, he’s suddenly over 45% from beyond the arc. Sustainable? Probably not, but enjoy it while it lasts. Brown is about as good as Mizzou has at getting to the line, and he’s also the team’s best defensive rebounder. He’s one of only two Mizzou players who is even replacement-level as a defender, so when he’s out, the Tigers are really bad on defense.
D’Moi Hodge, SG, 6’4
- Box Score Contribution: +9.1 (1st)
- RAPM: 97 (2nd)
- Offense RAPM: 100 (2nd)
- Defense RAPM: 20 (4th)
A Cleveland State transfer, Hodge is a high-use 3-point shooter whose ridiculous efficiency stems from his good shooting (42% 3FG) and the fact that he never turns the ball over (impossibly-low 4%). About two-thirds of Hodge’s shots will be from beyond the arc, but he can also get to the rim and shoots a high percentage on 2-pointers as well. Defensively, he’s an acceptable rebounder who can also create steals, but he routinely gets beat on defense. If he can’t force turnovers, he’s an outright liability.
Nick Honor, PG, 5’10
- Box Score Contribution: +3.0 (3rd)
- RAPM: 92 (3rd)
- Offense RAPM: 100 (3rd)
- Defense RAPM: 11 (7th)
Transferring over from Clemson, Honor is a very-low-usage distributor who initiates Mizzou’s offense. When he does shoot, Honor will mostly shoot 3-pointers, which he hits at a decent rate. He takes care of the ball and has the team’s best assist-to-turnover ratio. Defensively, he gets routinely beat off the dribble or pass and is a poor rebounder. Like Hodge (and many other Mizzou defenders), he does get some steals, but he is a total liability otherwise.
Sean East II, PG, 6’3
- Box Score Contribution: +0.6 (6th)
- RAPM: 41 (7th)
- Offense RAPM: 71 (6th)
- Defense RAPM: 18 (5th)
East, a junior college transfer, is the other perimeter point guard. East is more moderate-usage (19%) and gets to the rim better than Honor. His overall shooting percentage is decent and he dishes out a lot of assists, but he’s one of only a few Mizzou players to struggle with turnovers. His 18% turnover rate isn’t terrible but it’s the worst on the team. Like many other teammates, he’s not much of a defender and does not rebound well.
Noah Carter, SF, 6’6
- Box Score Contribution: +1.8 (4th)
- RAPM: 76 (5th)
- Offense RAPM: 73 (5th)
- Defense RAPM: 69 (2nd)
Arkansas showed some interest in this Northern Iowa transfer before landing Ricky Council IV. Carter will take about half his shots from downtown and he’s hitting a decent 36% from there. He doesn’t do anything particularly well on either side of the ball… but “not being terrible” on defense makes him one of the Tigers’ best defenders.
DeAndre Gholston, SG, 6’5
- Box Score Contribution: -0.4 (7th)
- RAPM: 65 (6th)
- Offense RAPM: 26 (8th)
- Defense RAPM: 90 (1st)
A transfer from Milwaukee, Gholston has thrived on his versatile defense, something the Tigers don’t have a lot of. He grades really well as a defender on or off the ball. Offensively, though, his high usage (27%) is a problem given that he’s not a very efficient scorer. He’s shooting just 32% from beyond the arc and 50% EFG, which is much lower than the teammates he shoots more often than.
Tre Gomillion, SG, 6’4
- Box Score Contribution: +0.6 (5th)
- RAPM: 82 (4th)
- Offense RAPM: 99 (4th)
- Defense RAPM: 13 (6th)
Gomillion is the other Cleveland State transfer. He’s a multipurpose perimeter player who aids in Mizzou’s spacing and takes high-percentage shots. He’s not an elite 3-point shooter but he gets to the rim well. Defensively, he’s like several other guys: if he’s not getting a steal, he’s probably getting beat.
When Mizzou has the ball
Mizzou’s offense is extremely modern: it’s all 3-pointers or shots at the rim. The Tigers go ultra-fast and have been blitzing opponents down the floor. Their defense forces turnovers that they use for runouts (1st in the nation in transition scoring off turnovers), but they are still very good when forced into halfcourt, where their elite spacing creates good shots.
The Tigers lead the nation in True Shooting and they shoot very well from all areas of the floor. Shot creation is a relative weakness, as they are not great on the offensive glass. They also don’t get to the line much, so they will be in trouble if the shots aren’t falling.
The shooting at the rim is where this game gets interesting. Arkansas’ defense allows too many shots at the rim (333rd), and while they defend well (74th), Mizzou is a different animal (2nd).
Mizzou’s base offense is 5-out motion, meaning that all five players on the floor are perimeter players. No one will live in the post. All five players can handle the ball and attempt 3-pointers if left open. Most halfcourt sequences start with a high ball screen. Because all five players are dribble drive threats, Mizzou’s early offense is mostly just trying to create a mismatch off a switch and then driving to the hoop:
Kobe Brown, in particular, is one guy they want to get a switch for, since he’s 6’8 but surprisingly adept at playing on the perimeter:
The single high ball screen is a common early offense play, but any time Mizzou can Brown into an iso, they’ll let him work:
That’s the issue with Brown: he’s tall enough to be a mismatch for small guards, but he’s quick enough to be a mismatch for bigs, like Kentucky’s Lance Ware in that play.
While Mizzou’s early offense is all about getting rim runs, they are also looking for open 3s. D’Moi Hodge doesn’t need much space to launch a 3, so on this play, Mizzou takes advantage of Kentucky’s unwillingness to send their bigs to the perimeter, using their men to set a staggered double screen to free Hodge for an open shot:
Even outside of set plays like this, Mizzou’s free-flowing offense is all about ball movement and space. Look at the tremendous spacing and passing they get on this play, leading to a wide-open shot:
How does Arkansas defend?
Let me start with the obvious: this stinks for Trevon Brazile. He’s a Springfield native and former Tiger who would have been a major difference-maker in this game. The Hogs could put him at the 5 (against Brown) and have a height advantage at all five positions with 100% switchability. I have no idea how Mizzou would attack that, as Arkansas would – at least on paper – have an answer to everything they do on offense.
But with Brazile out for the season, this is a much tougher spot. Makhi Mitchell is not comfortable out on the perimeter, so the Hogs will have to protect him with “drop” coverage, where he doesn’t go all the way out to the perimeter on a screen. Drop coverage is risky against a 5-out team, because Arkansas will basically be ceding a few open 3-pointers to Brown, since Mitchell won’t be out there to defend.
I think that’s how Arkansas will start, but if Mizzou starts being it up, the Hogs could try something creative. Jordan Walsh at the 5 (on Brown) wouldn’t be outlandish. That leaves the Hogs with a five-guard lineup that would still have a height advantage at three positions. Of course, without Nick Smith, Arkansas doesn’t have enough guards to pull this off, so at least one of the freshmen (probably Joseph Pinion) would have to play significant minutes. Does Muss want to do that? He might not have a choice.
While Brazile would give Arkansas total switchability, even without him, the Hogs can switch a lot more than what Mizzou has seen this year. Anthony Black can switch 1 through 5, while both Devo Davis and Ricky Council can switch 1 through 4 at least. That should be enough to smother the perimeter, but Mizzou’s dribble drives off of ball screens are still very dangerous.
When Arkansas has the ball
When considering defensive tactics, it’s important to also consider the other side of the ball: lineups that marginally improve Arkansas’ defensive chances may be a major hindrance to the offense.
Mizzou’s defense is… not good. It can be beat down the floor in transition and it can also be attacked in the halfcourt. Arkansas failed to punish LSU’s poor transition defense, but Mizzou gives them another shot.
The Tigers are huge gamblers. They will force a ton of turnovers (7th) at the expense of allowing open shots. Their lack of height means that they are very bad on the glass (322nd) and they also foul too much (218th). Their primary goal is to steal some possessions with turnovers and then force you into a shootout with them, hoping they can out-shoot you.
They have quick hands and a willingness to gamble, allowing them to knock balls free. Here, Kentucky is really indecisive with the ball in attacking the 1-3-1, so Mizzou is able to knock the ball free:
On the other hand, their aggression is pretty easy to turn against them if you move fast, especially if you have tall guards like Arkansas:
Mizzou will struggle in positions like that, where they have to defend Black and Council in 1-on-1 situations.
They have no rim protector at all and are toast if the ball gets under the basket. To keep teams away from the rim, they employ some 1-3-1 zone as a change of pace. Brown as the low man can use his quick hands to deny entry passes:
That’s some weak hands by Tshiebwe, but credit to Brown for getting a piece of the ball.
When Kentucky was able to complete the entry pass, it was a bucket:
Against man, the Hogs will probably try a simple isolation game with Black and Council finding openings to drive to the hoop. I’d be stunned if Mizzou can slow that down in any way, which means the Tigers will probably have to go zone for a lot of the game.
Against the zone, you want to get the ball to Black in the middle of the floor so he can direct everything. The Hogs will have to take (and hit) some open 3-pointers, but patience should break the zone down and jacking up a ton of 3-pointers is not the solution for this team.
Keys to the Game
- Be elite on the perimeter. Mizzou is a perimeter offense and will test the Hogs out there. The Razorbacks need to be sharp in ball screen defense and stay in front of guys on isolations. If Mizzou can’t get open 3s and has to resort to contested 2-pointers, they will be in some trouble.
- Use height to your advantage. The Hogs can dominate rebounding and get to the line if they can take advantage of their major size advantage. Settling for long jump shots isn’t going to win this game: the Hogs need to get their tall guards moving towards the basket.
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