If you want the good news, here it is. There have been about 20 SEC games played so far this season, and home teams have only lost four of them. South Carolina, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Florida are the only SEC teams to take a conference loss at home. State is the only team that’s anywhere near the bubble right now. None of the seven or so teams safely in the field has lost a home game yet.
So road losses – especially early in the year – are not that damaging. This was just Arkansas’ second true road game. The rest will be easier just because of the valuable experience.
This was the second of the six “toss-up” games the Hogs will play this season. They need to go 3-3 and are already 0-2. The good news is that two of the remaining four are at home (Alabama, Kentucky) and then beating Kentucky in Rupp is very doable, given how the Wildcats have looked this year. So getting to 3-3 in those toss-ups and going 13-5 overall in SEC play is still within the realm of possibility. That would give the Hogs a 2- or 3-seed, depending on the results in the SEC Tournament and against Baylor in Waco.
But this game also provided plenty of reasons to be concerned. The main issue was, of course, Arkansas’ offense. After LSU and Mizzou tried to play zone or zone-like defense, I didn’t even consider that Auburn, an exclusively-man team, might do it too. But here’s what the Hogs saw on their first possession:
I now feel confident making this claim: every team Arkansas plays until at least Nick Smith returns will be exclusively zone until the Hogs shoot them out of it.
We’ll take a closer look at what went wrong in attacking it below.
Advanced Stats
Auburn did a lot of things I didn’t really expect. They didn’t try to run (only 9% of possessions in transition) and kept their offensive pace fairly slow (17.9 seconds per possession). They looked good in halfcourt, scoring 63 points on a 98.4 rating.
The big thing they did was work really hard to prevent Arkansas from getting anything in transition. The Hogs had just 13 transition points.
A couple thoughts here:
- Auburn really focused on setting up their defense. The Tigers are normally very good on the offensive glass and very bad at turning the ball over. That’s part of them being aggressive, but they get punished when their opponent can run the other way (off defensive boards or turnovers). But Auburn instead focused on valuing the basketball and were willing to forego offensive rebounds in order to get their defense set up. That’s why Arkansas struggled to run and had to face the zone in halfcourt sets.
- The Hogs’ shot selection was fine. Arkansas managed to get to the rim on 50% on field goal attempts, rebounded 43% of their misses, and shot 32 free throws. That’s the setup for an excellent offensive day most of the time. Just not this time. Arkansas didn’t shoot well from any level of the floor. Struggling at the rim was the biggest surprise, as Auburn did not have an elite rim defense. LSU actually forced Arkansas away from the rim, but Auburn just defended well.
Let’s dive in a bit deeper into the second point.
Arkansas vs. the zone
Hog fans might as well get used to the 2-3 zone, because they’ll be seeing a lot of it.
The zone presents clear problems for this team, because the best way to beat it is with jump shooting, and Arkansas is quite bad at jump shooting. The type of player Muss wants for his overall system usually is lacking in jump shooting, as length, quick feet, and quick hands are more valuable to the Hogs’ system.
Mizzou opened in a funky 2-3 zone and Arkansas looked baffled for much of the game, even though Mizzou has used that defense quite a bit this season, so it definitely did not take the Hogs by surprise. The Hogs eventually forced the Tigers out of it and they were all man-to-man after the first few possessions of the second half when the Hogs stormed back and took the lead.
Let’s start with one quick point: no, Joseph Pinion did not shoot Mizzou out of the zone. The presence of a true jump shooter on the floor may have helped, but of Pinion’s three 3-pointers, none of them came against the zone. The first two were in transition, when Mizzou’s defense wasn’t set up. The second made it 38-37 with 16:49 left in the game. The Tigers called time out, then resumed play in man-to-man, where they stayed for the rest of the game, so Pinion’s final triple (to make it 46-42) came against man. Pinion can help with the zone (see the note on how Auburn defended him below), but he’s not a shot creator, so he’ll never be very high volume. The Hogs have not worked very hard to create shots for him, and he’s not getting tremendous movement off the ball right now.
How Arkansas attacks the zone
Two things eventually forced Mizzou out of the zone. The first was offensive rebounding. It’s hard to box out in a zone, and that’s one of its major downsides. Arkansas rebounded more than half of its missed shots for the game. The Hogs put Kamani Johnson – the team’s best offensive rebounder – into the game late in the first half and he immediately grabbed three offensive boards and drew three fouls in less than six minutes of gametime. If you recall, that’s basically what he did in the lategame against San Diego State… another team that runs a zone-like defense. The prospect of a Kamani takeover helped force Mizzou to wave the white flag.
The second is that Arkansas finally stopped settling for catch-and-shoot shots. Analytics say the catch-and-shoot jumper is much better than the pull-up jumper, so it makes sense that the Hogs would want to create those looks, especially when the zone allows them, but the reality is that the best shot is the one that’s open and comfortable for the shooter.
Down 34-19 and really on the brink, Arkansas went with a 5-guard, 5-out lineup and did this:
That’s a little one-dribble midrange jumper. It’s right in Devo’s wheelhouse, and Council can also hit that. It’s very hard to defend in the zone. As mentioned in the Mizzou Box Score Breakdown, the Hogs shot a fantastic 56% on midrange jumpers in that game, mostly because they were open like that one. Arkansas hit at least three of those late in the first half and early in the second.
Unfortunately, when the Hogs tried the same look against Auburn, it didn’t go as well:
Auburn is longer, more athletic, and had film from the Mizzou game, so they were ready to defend this shot. The Hogs couldn’t buy an open look on these and had to abandon them pretty early.
And, of course, the catch-and-shoot jumpers still didn’t fall, even when they were wide open:
This was… all game. Arkansas doesn’t have to be a good 3-point shooting team, but they simply cannot be this bad. Note here that Arkansas has Walsh and Pinion in the wings, but Auburn is extending the zone out to Pinion only and not Walsh. They don’t want Pinion shooting, but they are fine with Walsh taking that shot.
So for the third straight game, the Hogs had a dismal first half where they settled for too many jump shots. The good news is that they adjusted again.
Arkansas lived at the rim in the second half. The Hogs started giving high ball screens to get Anthony Black going, and he just dissected the defense on the fly. It was beautiful to watch:
While it was mostly Black, the Hogs were able to get some pick-and-roll actions for other guys as well. Here, Devo and Jalen Graham team up for a nifty pick-and-roll:
That’s how Arkansas ended up with 50% of field goals coming at the rim despite getting to the rim much less often in the first half. They still had long stretches of bad play in the second half and only scored 34 second-half points, but a lot of that was just bad luck, as shots that would normally drop just didn’t stay in.
Disappearing Council
Putting Black back into takeover mode like he did in Maui was obviously the key, and I’m not sure why Black waited so long to seize control of the offense. He seems to defer to Council too often. Council is a great player, but he is not a great player against the zone. You notice that he’s not in any of the good highlights from this game. As against previous zones, he does all of his damage in transition and becomes a non-factor once the zone gets set up.
Here is Council versus the zone and pack line defenses Arkansas has seen this year:
- San Diego State: 6 of 19 FG, 7 of 11 FT, 19 points
- UNC Greensboro: 1 of 7 FG, 6 of 6 FT, 8 points
- LSU: 5 of 19 FG, 2 of 5 FT, 13 points
- Mizzou (first half): 1 of 6 FG, 1 of 2 FT, 4 points
- Auburn: 5 of 15 FG, 2 of 2 FT, 15 points
- Total: 18 of 66 FG (27%), 17 of 26 FT (65%), 59 points
That’s 32% EFG and 38% True Shooting. Awful. Council doesn’t really seem to know where to be on the floor when he sees a zone. He likes to have a head start with the dribble, and that’s the one thing the zone won’t let you do. He doesn’t work well off the ball, mostly just slinking around the perimeter, so he’s not going to get any basket cuts to create shots at the rim. He’s not a great passer from the perimeter, either. If he doesn’t have an opportunity to create a shot for himself, then he’ll just keep passing to the next guy. He’s not good on catch-and-shoot 3s, so he has limited value against a zone.
Great players get fouled
Black kept Arkansas in the game with his 23-point performance. On a night when no one was shooting well, Black managed to hit 13 of 16 free throws. He repeatedly got fouled. That’s a theme for him all season: he’s very good at getting fouled. Great players get fouled, which helps them overcome poor shooting games.
Here’s Arkansas’ top 8 minutes players this year by Free Throw Usage, which measures the percentage of 2-point shot chances where the shooter ends up fouled and at the free throw line:
- Kamani Johnson 32%
- Anthony Black 29%
- Trevon Brazile 22%
- Nick Smith 20%
- Ricky Council IV 19%
- Jordan Walsh 17%
- Makhi Mitchell 17%
- Devo Davis 12%
Anything above 20% is considered high. So Black is a free throw magnet. More than a quarter of his attempts to shoot inside the arc end up with him at the stripe.
We’ve already discussed Council’s issues. Against SEC zones (LSU, first-half Mizzou, Auburn), he’s sitting at 13% Free Throw Usage: six trips against 40 field goals. He can’t buy a trip to the line because he’s been forced into a pure jump shooter, which is not his game.
Devo has a similar issue. He’s never been good at getting to the rim, so if his midrange jumper isn’t falling, he’s not much use in the offense, because he can’t get to the rim and draw fouls. I feel for him, because he’s actually one of Arkansas’ best players against the zone in terms of movement. He understands where the weak points of the zone are and maintains great spacing and positioning. All of that creates open shots for him… but he can’t hit them. He missed a couple more triples against Auburn, and both were wide open. He’s now 7 of 39 from beyond the arc this season. It’s time to stop shooting.
He did fine running point because, again, he knows where everyone needs to be on the floor and can make some stuff happen, as you saw in that pick-and-roll above. But he’s not better than Black at that, so he’d only ever be the best option for that role if Black is in foul trouble or needs a breather.
Graham and Kamani
Two guys that will probably help you against zone looks going forward are Jalen Graham and Kamani Johnson. The Hogs tried both for extended looks against Auburn, with Graham finally looking good in a non-blowout.
Kamani Johnson’s skillset is well-known at this point. He single-handedly brought the Hogs back against San Diego State (a pack line defense) and then played a major role in forcing Mizzou out of their zone. He leads the team with a massive 17% offensive rebound rate and also leads the team with a massive 32% free throw usage. He’s third on the team in Offensive RAPM (behind only Black and Walsh) and second in offensive rating (barely trailing Makhi Mitchell). Being a putback and foul-drawing monster is very useful against the zone.
Graham is similar. He’s second on the team in offensive rebound rate (17%, less than half a percent behind Kamani) and had three offensive boards in 12 minutes against Auburn. Graham is a much better shooter (62% EFG) and defensive rebounder (24%, tied for team lead with Makhi). He’s not as good at getting to the line (free throw USG of just 15%) and has a higher turnover rate (23%), but his free throw USG was 33% against Auburn and he only turned it over once. The Hogs were -1 in his 12 minutes, but if he had just hit 3 of his 5 free throws (60%), the team would have been +1. Not bad.
Tying it all together
Until Smith returns to action, the Hogs will have some major challenges against zone. What can we expect from Arkansas’ personnel? The numbers so far say that the main Hogs can be grouped into three groups: guys whose minutes shouldn’t be impacted by the defense, guys who should play more and have the ball more against man, and guys who should play more and have the ball more against zone:
- Good all the time: Anthony Black, Jordan Walsh, Devo Davis
- Higher usage against man: Ricky Council IV, Makhi Mitchell
- Higher usage against zone: Joseph Pinion, Kamani Johnson, Jalen Graham
More than personnel, the real issue is that Arkansas just has to convert better at the rim and at the line. As mentioned in the advanced stats, the Hogs took 50% of their shots at the rim, rebounded 43% of their misses, and shot 32 free throws. That’s good! That’s exactly what you want against the zone. If the Hogs just shoot their season averages at the rim and the line and change nothing else, they score about 73 points. Auburn scored 72.
Up Next
A monster, probably must-win game against Alabama looms in Fayetteville. The Tide are the SEC favorites right now. Should be a good one.
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