It was close, and then it wasn’t.
Arkansas trailed for most of the game but battled back from a 10-point deficit to pull within 65-63. Then Alabama did what a top-5 team should do, drilling three consecutive 3-pointers to put the game away. The Tide his 7 of 10 from beyond the arc in the second half.
Now 1-3, Arkansas is facing yet another uphill climb in SEC play. The Hogs will need to start tinkering with their lineup to try and salvage the season, but thankfully, a long stretch of very winnable games is coming up.
Team Stats
A couple notes:
- Alabama did not slow the pace at all. We wondered in the preview if Nate Oats would deviate from his system to match up, and he did not. This game happened at a very fast pace, especially by the Tide, who got in transition on 27% of possessions and averaged a blistering 13.5 seconds per possession.
- Arkansas was bad in transition again. That’s all four SEC games where the Hogs have failed to punish an opponent that wanted to set up a halfcourt defense. Despite Alabama only getting three additional transition possessions, the Tide were +13 in transition. Yikes.
More notes:
- The Hogs can rebound, but they can’t force turnovers. To hold both Auburn and Alabama – both top 5 in offensive rebounding rate – to under 30% offensive rebounding is incredible. But it came at the expense of forcing turnovers. Arkansas has now lost the turnover battle in all four SEC games, which is inexplicable for a Musselman defense. Arkansas’ ball pressure is how they prevent shooters from getting open. A lot of Alabama’s shooting success came from Arkansas’ failure to pressure the ball at a high level.
- Arkansas cannot buy a jump shot. This is a known problem, but it needs to be addressed further.
There’s not much to discuss strategically, because Alabama didn’t seem on first watch to do anything particularly unique. They did not use much zone and they did not try to slow the game down, which are common strategies employed by Hogs’ opponents. They just played their game and eventually pulled it out. Hat tip to them.
Individual Stats
Arkansas put Devo Davis on Brandon Miller, and he did a fantastic job, but that left Mark Sears to have a great game. The Tide have a lot of weapons and look very impressive.
For the Hogs, the lights are bright for the two freshmen. Anthony Black and Jordan Walsh were awful on offense yet again. Black has had one good half (second half against Auburn) in SEC play so far, and Walsh has yet to look good on offense. The Hogs were minus-11 in Walsh’s 17 minutes and minus-4 in the other 23. Not ideal.
After the game, Muss said this:
Maybe I need to be careful saying this, but… I don’t think I buy this. Maybe that’s just because I was at the home loss to Vanderbilt last year and felt utterly hopeless before the Hogs went on a huge run to close the year. But Arkansas has the hope of Nick Smith returning in February, and the schedule is about to get much, much easier for a solid month. Plus, the Hogs have a lot of guys on the bench who could get some chances. What worked in non-conference isn’t working now, but this is still a deep and talented team. I don’t think they’re out of it at all.
Let’s look at what’s going wrong and what Arkansas needs to change.
Council isn’t the guy
With Smith limited and injured, Arkansas put a lot of eggs in Ricky Council’s basket. In non-conference play, that paid off, with Council showing skill as a true three-level scorer. The problem is that his “three-level scoring” has turned into one-level scoring in SEC play.
Council is shooting just 29% from beyond the arc this season. In SEC play, he looks very timid and afraid to attack the rim, so he’s settling for too many midrange jumpers. The midrange jumper is a fine shot depending on the defense, but it cannot be overused for it ceases to be effective, just because it’s a low percentage shot to begin with. Council shooting 29% from 3 is more valuable than shooting 40% on midrange jumpers (0.87 points per shot versus 0.80).
Council has other issues that emerge when he’s not scoring:
- He’s Arkansas’ worst-rebounding guard. He ranks last on the team in total rebound rate (5%), offensive rebound rate (3%), and defensive rebound rate (7%). He has two inches on Devo Davis but is a significantly-worse rebounder.
- He’s a passive defender. Remember from above that Arkansas has to force turnovers? Council doesn’t. He grades as a solid individual defender, but he isn’t very aggressive. He ranks worst among Arkansas’ guards (behind Pinion even) in Kills per 40 Minutes. A “kill” is a steal, block, or drawn charge. So while he uses his length to defend just fine, he’s not forcefully ending opposing possessions.
- He’s only decent at getting to the line. He managed to get to the line nine times against Alabama, but for the season, he’s at 20% free throw usage, which is well behind Black at 28%. (Free Throw USG = percentage of shot chances inside the arc that result in a foul). Jumbo guards that aren’t good 3-point shooters should have really high free throw usage rates, and 20% is more mediocre.
The free throw usage stat is telling that Council just isn’t very aggressive in getting to the rim. He looks timid and unsure of himself with the ball, especially when he gets inside the arc. He wants to be JD Notae, but he probably needs to settle for being Jimmy Whitt: a tall guard who defends well and is only moderate-usage on offense with his midrange game.
Graham has not made the Hogs better this season…
If Council is not the guy, then who is? Jalen Graham had 16 points against Alabama in another productive outing. Graham has had a difficult time finding the floor this season. The 6’9 transfer from Arizona State was all-conference at his previous school but he isn’t even top 8 on the team in minutes played this year. He’s played fewer minutes than Nick Smith and Trevon Brazile, actually.
Graham’s conundrum was summarized very nicely by Andrew Hutchinson of Best of Arkansas Sports back in December:
However, it’s worth noting that almost all of Graham’s production has come in garbage time. It’s easy to point to his plus-23 in that game, but the Razorbacks already led by 14 and were well on their way to pulling away for a blowout win before he entered the game.
That has been a theme for him so far, as 29 of his 31 points this season have come with the Razorbacks leading by at least 14. Only 31.3 percent of his minutes this season have come with Arkansas trailing or leading by 10 or less. In those 13 minutes and 10 seconds, Graham is minus-5. In fact, more than half of his minutes have come with Arkansas leading by at least 20.
Our in-house advanced stats back that up. We can use Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) to get a full view of how good Arkansas is when Graham is on the floor. RAPM applies a ridge regression to every stint a player had while on the floor, removing outliers and collinearity. The output of the calculation tells us how good Graham makes his team at both ends of the floor and overall.
The results for Graham have not been pretty. His normalized RAPM is 41 – meaning his output is in the 41st percentile of all Division I players who rank in the top 10 of their team in minutes – which is easily the worst on the team. His Offense RAPM (ORAPM) is second-worst, while his DRAPM is the worst. You could see his rough DRAPM on display against Alabama: while Graham helped bring the Hogs back from the brink, the final defensive collapse in the final four minutes happened while Graham was on the floor.
…but he’s making them better now
That’s where we get to the twist in Graham’s conundrum. We have another advanced stat to complement RAPM. Box Plus-Minus, or BPM, takes box score stats and applies weights derived from RAPM to tell us how much that player directly contributes to his team’s success. Its goal is to use box score stats to approximate RAPM.
Here are Arkansas’ best offensive players according to BPM:
- Jalen Graham +4.5
- Nick Smith +4.0
- Ricky Council IV +3.6
- Makhi Mitchell +3.0
- Joseph Pinion +2.7
Huh. So Graham creates a net of 4.5 points per 100 possessions with his offensive skills. How could he lead the team in Offense BPM while ranking 9th on the team in Offense RAPM, when the point of BPM to approximate RAPM? It’s simple: it’s a zero-sum game, and Graham’s high volume (team-high 33% USG) means that for much of the season, his contributions were just replacing the contributions of teammates who were playing well, like Council. A Graham shot means Council isn’t shooting on that possession. That’s why, as Hutch noted, Graham has been poor in close games: because Council (and Black and Walsh) were in the game, too, and they were playing well on offense.
But they aren’t playing well now. Graham’s OBPM has only passed Council in the last couple of games. Because BPM approximates RAPM, Graham’s Offense RAPM is likely to start rising soon if he continues to see the floor while playing at this level. We saw this in the NBA: in 2020, Devin Booker had an amazing BPM and a terrible RAPM. By the end of that season, Booker’s RAPM began rapidly rising. The Suns realized they were coming into their moment, traded for Chris Paul that offseason, and made a run to the Finals in 2021, when Booker’s BPM and RAPM were fantastic.
So it’s pretty simple: it’s time for Graham to play starter minutes. He is Arkansas’ best offensive player and the Hogs need to get him the ball. When and if Nick Smith returns, the math changes a bit, as Smith can be the high-volume guy.
Arkansas probably needs more two-forward lineups
If Graham starts, who does he replace? Replacing Makhi Mitchell is not necessarily a great idea. Graham’s DRAPM is worst on the team, while Makhi actually grades a competent defender. Graham’s 0.63 Kills per Foul mean that asking him to be the 5 will probably just lead to massive foul trouble for him.
The Hogs instead used him at the 4 for most of his minutes against Alabama. That would mean replacing Jordan Walsh. Walsh’s ugly regression probably means his minutes need to be reduced anyway. He’s not doing anything on offense, and he’s not as good defensively as you might think: his 3.3 Kills per 40 isn’t great, and his 0.71 Kills per Foul is worst on the team. So even if he tried to be more aggressive as a defender, that would just lead to more foul trouble, and he already spends a lot of time in foul trouble.
So a new lineup would look something like this:
- C: Makhi Mitchell / Makhel Mitchell
- PF: Jalen Graham / Kamani Johnson / Jordan Walsh (small-ball lineups)
- SF/W: Ricky Council IV / Jordan Walsh / Joseph Pinion
- SG: Devo Davis / Joseph Pinion
- PG: Anthony Black / Ricky Council IV
That starting lineup gives you two high-volume scorers (Graham and Council), one medium-volume scorer (Black), and two low-volume scorers (Mitchell and Devo). Not bad. There are options. It is slightly worse defensively, but that’s a sacrifice that may have to be made. It still has Devo and Black, who grade as excellent perimeter defenders, and Mitchell, who grades as a solid post defender.
I’m not sure how Arkansas is going to hit more 3-pointers, though. Pinion is the only shooter, but who does he replace? Council is the only option – Devo has been great in SEC play and Black is too good as a passer and defender – but then you’re replacing a high-volume player with a low-volume one. Maybe some Graham/Pinion sets together would be nice, but you’d be sacrificing a lot of defense to make that happen. I don’t envy Muss and staff having to make these calls.
Up Next
Arkansas heads to Vanderbilt with an immediate opportunity to shift the lineup. The Commodores have one elite player – center Liam Robbins – and the rest of their lineup is barely SEC-quality. The Hogs will use the Mitchell twins at the 5 against Robbins, but this game will be a great chance for Graham to dominate on offense out of the 4. We’ll preview that matchup on Friday.
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