The Hogs had to have it, and they got it. Ole Miss may be at the bottom of the SEC – South Carolina is the only team we can confidently say is worse than the Rebels – but the Hogs took care of business on Saturday in Fayetteville. The 69-57 final doesn’t really reflect the game flow: Arkansas led by as many as 21 but played Eric Musselman’s infamous stall-ball down the stretch to close out the victory.
If nothing else, the win hopefully increased team confidence heading into a lengthy stretch of winnable SEC games.
Grading the Hogs
Our grading system takes every team’s quality-of-opponent-adjusted efficiencies and normalizes them to produce a “grade” of 0-100 for overall, offense, and defense for every game. So an offense grade of 62 means that team’s offensive performance in that game was in the 62nd percentile of all offensive performances in all games that season.
The magic number for a team with Arkansas’ ceiling is probably around 70. You’ll rarely lose with a grade above 70. The Hogs hit exactly 70 in the loss to Creighton but are now 13-0 when grading higher than 70.
The team’s overall grade of 83 and defense grade of 80 are both highs for SEC play. The offense has now posted three straight grades of 50+ after starting SEC play with three grades under 50 in the first four games.
Team Stats
This game ended up going at a very slow pace. This is the second straight game that the Hogs have gone quite slow (15% transition, 18.1 seconds per possession) and still had a decent offensive performance. They’ve had serious trouble getting out in transition all season, and that’s gotten worse in SEC play. I think to be truly elite, they need to run more, but winning the halfcourt battle 56-39 and posting a 98.2 halfcourt efficiency against a solid halfcourt defense is not a bad place to be.
After getting wacked in the turnover battle for the last several games, the Hogs finally broke through and dominated the turnover portion of the game. That they were able to force turnovers on 26% of Ole Miss’s possessions while holding down a very good offensive rebounding team is doubly impressive.
As a result of Arkansas’ suffocating defense, Ole Miss just couldn’t get enough shots up. They did a nice job of converting the opportunities they had – 51% True Shooting isn’t bad, especially for a poor shooting team like Ole Miss – but they just didn’t create enough chances for themselves.
Arkansas’ offense limited turnovers, got to the rim, and hit the open 3-point shots. That’s a recipe to win for this offense.
Individual Stats
A few observations here:
The Mitchells plan finally pays off
During nonconference play, I thought Makhi Mitchell was one of the nice surprises of the team. He obviously had the raw talent – Makhi was a 4-star recruit out of high school – but he hadn’t really been impressive consistently at either Maryland or Rhode Island. Giving two scholarships to the twins seemed like a risky proposition. But Makhi showcased nice passing and decent rim defense during nonconference play.
You could tell there was a weird fit: despite underrated athleticism, the way Arkansas was using Makhi (and Makhel) seemed to encourage them to be very deliberate, in stark contrast to the hyper-athleticism of the rest of the lineup. This became evident when conference play started. Makhi looked very bad in the first couple of games: he couldn’t hold onto the ball against LSU, recording two turnovers and fumbling a rebound out of bounds while Arkansas was blowing a late lead. That led to Makhel getting more minutes, and while Makhel is a better rim protector, he’s less valuable offensively. I even made the case that (against smaller opponents) Kamani Johnson is a better option at the 5: he turns it over less than either, is better at drawing fouls, and is better on the offensive glass. Basically, if your offense is struggling, he does some small things that could help.
But on Saturday, both Mitchells looked good, and both looked comfortable. The Hogs put Makhi into more pick-and-rolls and he did a nice job:
But Makhi’s rim defense remains not great…
…so it was his brother Makhel who stole the show, finishing with 4 points, 5 rebounds, no turnovers, and +15 in 22 minutes. He was especially strong on the defensive end, contesting everything around the rim. Here, he creates two misses on the same possession (unfortunately, he injured his leg or ankle on this sequence and had to leave the game):
I’m glad we got to see this combo work. In the second Mizzou preview, we made this note about 4/5 lineup combos:
The Makhel + Walsh combo might deserve some more looks. It was on the floor when Arkansas was pulling away from Vanderbilt late in the first half, but was inexplicably not used in the second half at all.
At that point, that particular combo had outscored opponents 24-16 in 15 possessions, almost all of it against Vanderbilt. Now it’s up to 59-37 in 50 possessions, making it easily the best 4/5 combo Arkansas has fielded in SEC play.
The Hogs actually started Kamani Johnson at the 5, creating the five-man lineup that I wanted to see more of, but I’m a bit surprised, as this didn’t seem like the game for it (Mizzou was, but due to Walsh’s foul trouble, we never got to see it for an extended stretch). Ole Miss’s offense is dependent on offensive rebounding, so I thought that this set up nicely for the Mitchells, especially Makhel. Kamani picked up two quick fouls in three minutes and the Hogs were minus-5 during his time on the court.
So what of Kamani? Is he done? Certainly, if the Mitchells are going to play like this, and Walsh is going to stay out of foul trouble at the 4, then yes, there doesn’t seem to be a role for Kamani. The Hogs don’t need their 5 to contribute much on offense other than not turning it over, and that will be doubly true when (and if) Nick Smith returns to the lineup. But I’m not convinced either of those things is going to continue. Kamani might have to fill in for Walsh at the 4, and if the Hogs see another zone and can’t shoot the opponent out of it, Kamani’s offensive rebounding will be more valuable. Until then, it was nice to see the Mitchell twins, especially Makhel, looking so impressive.
Pinion in, Council out
More from the Mizzou preview:
In 80 of Pinion’s 100 possessions in SEC play, he’s shared the floor with Council. Those… haven’t gone well. Arkansas is being outscored 90-72 on those. In the 20 possessions where Pinion replaced Council in the lineup, the Hogs are up 28-20. Most of that was against Mizzou.
Council isn’t a great perimeter passer, and Pinion isn’t a shot creator, so the two have to be setting each other up. I haven’t seen that from Council at all this year.
Pinion was in the game with Council out for a season-high 29 possessions against Ole Miss, and the Hogs outscored the Rebels 34-20 in that span. That means all lineups where Pinion replaces Council are now up 62-40 in SEC play.
Council continued his conference play struggles, recording just two points (and three turnovers) in 18 minutes. His ORAPM – our measure of he impacts Arkansas’ offense – is down to a grade of 85, fourth-best on the team, behind Walsh (100), Black (99)… and Pinion (93). Now, Pinion’s DRAPM (his defensive impact) is just 35, easily the worst on the team, while Council is still at 98, behind only Black and Devo. Muss praised Pinion’s defense, particularly his rebounding, which will be the key to him getting more minutes.
Council is a creator, but he seems to get minimal movement away from the ball. He’s also one of the team’s worst rebounders at both ends, despite being 6’6. If his own created shots aren’t falling (and they haven’t been for most of SEC play), then he offers little other than defensive length on the perimeter.
Up Next
LSU comes to Fayetteville on Saturday. The Tigers have not won an SEC game since knocking off the Hogs in the opener. This game figures to be another must-win.
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