Riding a two-game SEC winning streak, Arkansas is stepping out of conference play for the SEC-Big 12 challenge against Baylor. This game is, of course, a rematch of the 2021 Elite Eight, won by Baylor on their way to the national title.
Meet the Bears
Scott Drew was hired at Baylor in 2003, inheriting an impossible situation. Former coach Dave Bliss resigned two months before the season started after a player murdered his teammate and a subsequent investigation uncovered rampant drug use and improper payments to players. Baylor was under probation for Drew’s first seven years on the job, and it took five seasons before Drew finally had a team finish above .500.
But Baylor’s patience with Drew has paid off. The Bears reached the Elite Eight in 2010 and 2012, but the real breakthrough has come in the last three seasons, starting with 2020. In 2021, Baylor won its first national championship, defeating the Hogs in the Elite Eight that year. Last year, they earned another 1-seed but lost to North Carolina in the second round.
This year’s team was expected to take a small step back, and while it has, the Bears are still really strong.
After an 0-3 start to conference play, Baylor has won five straight, including defeating Kansas this week. The Bears’ non-conference run includes wins over UCLA and Gonzaga.
The Bears now possess the nation’s top-ranked offense by Adjusted Efficiency.
Model pick: Baylor 77, Arkansas 71.
Scouting Report
Baylor’s offense is its bread-and-butter. There are some similarities to what Arkansas is doing on offense, as Baylor is mostly trying to get its talented guards going downhill and towards the basket. You’ll see isolations but also plenty of ballscreens. Baylor will identify your weakest perimeter defender and force a switch that creates a mismatch. If you help inside the arc, the Bear guards are looking to kick out for open 3-point looks.
Baylor as a program went from good to great when Drew adopted the Texas Tech no-middle defense. This year’s Baylor defense isn’t as good as the 2021 version, but it’s still fiesty. The Bears will ice ball screens and try to force the ball into the sides, where the low help man can cut off paths to the basket and the sideline and baseline act as extra defenders. The only reliable way to solve this defense is with a skip pass to a spot-up 3, something that Arkansas is not very good at.
Starters
Baylor
- Flo Thamba, C, 6’10 (-0.3 BPM, 96 RAPM)
- Jalen Bridges, PF, 6’7 (+6.3 BPM, 86 RAPM)
- Keyonte George, SG, 6’4 (+7.5 BPM, 99 RAPM)
- Adam Flagler, PG, 6’3 (+8.9 BPM, 90 RAPM)
- LJ Cryer, PG, 6’1 (+3.2 BPM, 54 RAPM)
Arkansas
- Makhi Mitchell, PF, 6’9 (+7.0 BPM, 78 RAPM)
- Jordan Walsh, SF, 6’7 (+1.9 BPM, 100 RAPM)
- Ricky Council IV, CG, 6’6 (+4.3 BPM, 98 RAPM)
- Devo Davis, SG, 6’4 (+1.3 BPM, 96 RAPM)
- Anthony Black, PG, 6’7 (+4.6 BPM, 100 RAPM)
Baylor’s scoring mostly comes from the backcourt trio of George, Flagler, and Cryer. The Bears screen constantly both on the ball and away from it to create mismatches and driving lanes.
Here, the Bears force a Kansas switch and get Cryer on 6’8 forward Jalen Wilson. That’s an easy drive to the basket for Cryer:
The three backcourt guys are pretty interchangeable in their ability to do that. All three will take about half their shots from beyond the arc, and their other shots will be on drives to the basket. George is a worse 3-point shooter but much more physical in getting to the rim, so he draws more fouls. He’ll need to be defended more as a driver than a jump shooter, while Flagler and Cryer are more dangerous as 3-point shooters. George grades as a solid defender (87 DRAPM), but Cryer and Flagler are both poor defenders, Cryer in particular (28 DRAPM) is extremely passive as a perimeter defender.
Arkansas is probably going to have to be willing to switch 1 through 4, because fighting through every screen is a tall order. The Hogs can probably do it (as long as Walsh is out of foul trouble), but I’m not sure what else you can do.
Bridges, at the 4, is a rim runner. He’s a perimeter player on offense – about half his shots are 3-pointers – but his biggest contribution is his massive 14% offensive rebound rate. He also draws a ton of fouls (25% free throw usage) and rarely turns it over (just 10% turnover rate). Walsh is going to have to defend him without fouling, which is a little nerve-wracking. Despite leading the team in blocked shot rate (3%), he grades as poor defender, at just 46 DRAPM.
In the middle is Thamba, the very-low-usage center. He’s mostly in there for his good defense (93 DRAPM), but he’s not a great shot-blocker; rather he’s a foul magnet (monstrous 38% free throw usage), good offensive rebounder (13%). However, he’s a turnover machine (27%) and is pretty foul prone, averaging just 0.57 kills (kill = steal, block, or drawn charge) for every personal foul.
Bench
Baylor is pretty invested in their starters, and the bench plays a relatively minor role. The main guy is 6’5 guard Langston Love, who mostly backs up George and Bridges and grades as a very good defender but a mediocre shooter. Reserve center Josh Ojianwuna backs up Thamba. Despite excellent rebounding numbers, he grades as one of Baylor’s worst overall players and is extremely foul-prone. And the backup guard is 6’2 Dale Bonner, who has a tremendous assist rate (24%) but also turns it over too much (23%).
When Baylor has the ball
Some previous Baylor teams played really fast, but this one does not. The Bears will get into transition when they find an opportunity, but they have a very average overall pace (144th) and are not elite at getting into transition (79th). Instead, they possess an elite halfcourt offense (2nd).
If this Baylor team has an offensive weakness, it’s that they can have a hard time getting to the rim. They are an elite team at finishing at the rim (3rd) and at getting to the free throw line (17th), but if you can keep them away from the rim, they will fall in love with the midrange jumper, particularly little floaters or pull-ups from the guards on drives.
Smothering the perimeter and forcing midrange jumpers is the key for Arkansas… but how attainable is it? The biggest fear with this matchup is that Arkansas does smother the perimeter, rebound well, and play well on offense… but loses because they get whistled for 35 fouls and Baylor goes 38 of 49 from the free throw line or something like that. If someone like Jordan Walsh gets in early foul trouble, Arkansas’ ability to switch goes down, and then the Hogs will really be up against it.
When Arkansas has the ball
Baylor’s defense is far from elite, and Arkansas absolutely can get the upper hand in a halfcourt game. It would be nice if the Hogs could help themselves out with some good play in transition, but we’ll see.
Baylor’s defense is going to force you to play like its own offense: they’ll keep you away from the rim and force you into midrange jumpers or 3-point shots. But if you do get a chance at the rim, they have the worst rim defense in the country (363rd). In that sense, they are similar to LSU, who was also top-20 in rim usage and bottom-20 in rim defense.
Against any no-middle defense, the “skip pass to spot-up 3” is going to be available. Notice how the low defender (Flagler, #10) stays to help under the basket, allowing the spot-up 3:
Baylor is willing to allow that shot rather than allow the driver to get to the rim. That’s a tough spot for Arkansas, as the Hogs don’t have a Gradey Dick (44% 3-point shooter) to spot up in that corner, though in a pinch, Joseph Pinion could try his best impression. And if Baylor is truly successful at preventing the Hogs from getting to the rim, the Hogs might have to go to that, even though it would sacrifice a lot of defense.
It’s worth noting that Baylor really depends on that low man helping under the basket because of how bad Cryer (#4) gets beat off that screen. Just a simple slip screen was enough to make him completely lose the ball. If that’s Council with the ball, he’s probably going to pull up for an open midrange jumper.
How does Arkansas attack it?
I think this matchup really sets up for Devo to continue his streak of good play. He’s a veteran who will know exactly how to attack this defense, and his ability to maintain good spacing, win on the perimeter, and sink open jumpers as they are available is important.
If Devo is the main ballhandler, I’d also like to see the guards create some offensive rebounds under the basket. Baylor doesn’t have a ton of size outside of the center position, so if you can pull that center away from the bucket, then the Hogs will have a massive size advantage under the hoop. That sets Black up as a rim-runner when he’s off the ball.
Keys to the Game
- Defend without fouling. All other keys are secondary to this one. If Arkansas spends the whole game in foul trouble they have no realistic shot at winning. Yes, you’re depending on good officiating in a road game against Baylor, but it is what it is.
- Get the best Devo. Winning will require the best version of Devo Davis that Arkansas has. At his best, he can hit open jump shots and defend the perimeter with the best of them. If Arkansas completes the first key and gets a great game from their veteran guard, the Hogs have a good shot to win.
- Take advantage of tall guards. We’ve talked at length about how good spacing allows Arkansas to unlock its size advantage in the guard position. This is a case where the Hogs need that on the offense end, namely through offensive rebounding, and on the defensive end, namely through closeouts. Black and Council in particular need to collect a ton of offensive rebounds. The opportunity will be there.
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