After four straight SEC wins to climb back to 5-5 in league play, have the Hogs really turned a corner? Are they ready to go get a signature win away from home? The battle against Kentucky will go a long way to tell us how far the Hogs have come, and how far they still have left to go before March.
Meet the Wildcats
Kentucky fans are presently wrestling with the question of whether it’s ever worth it to give a coach a lifetime contract. Calipari, who won a national title and has been to two other Final Fours in Lexington, doesn’t have an NCAA Tournament win since 2019. After losing to Saint Peter’s as a 2-seed last season, Kentucky is firmly on the bubble this year. They aren’t bad, but this isn’t an elite program right now.
The Wildcats are now sitting on six straight SEC wins following a 1-3 start. Their road win over Tennessee is the main thing holding up their resume right now, as they had a rough non-conference run, failing to record a signature win.
Model pick: Kentucky 72, Arkansas 69.
Scouting Report
For the Wildcats, it all starts with Oscar Tshiebwe, the 6’9 center who is the reigning National Player of the Year. Tshiebwe leads the Cats in minutes, BPM, RAPM, ORAPM, and DRAPM, meaning that he is their most-used player, most valuable overall player, most valuable offensive player, and most valuable defensive player. Pretty straightforward!
Tshiebwe hasn’t been at Player of the Year levels this season, but he’s still very productive. His 26% total rebound rate leads all Division I players, while both his 19% offensive rebound rate and 33% defensive rebound rate are in the top 10. Despite his rebounding prowess, he’s been significantly less effective everywhere else. His 54% eFG% is really not that great for a guy who does all his work around the rim (both Mitchell twins are at around 64%, for example) and his 18% free throw usage is a bit low for such a physical player. Defensively, he can be pulled out from the rim way too easily, so opponents tend to attack him with ball screens.
The other major scorer is 6’5 guard Antonio Reeves, who is second on the team in both RAPM and ORAPM, behind Tshiebwe. Reeves will take about half his shots from beyond the arc and hits around 40% on those. He’s not much of a threat inside the arc. I could see Devo Davis guarding him to try and eliminate him as a threat.
Joining Tshiebwe in the frontcourt is 6’9 small forward Jacob Toppin. Toppin is a fine rebounder who rarely turns the ball over, but he’s a below-average shooter who is a very finesse player, struggling to get to the rim or line.
The two main guys with the ball in their hands are 5’9 Sahvir Wheeler and 6’4 Cason Wallace. Wallace is the 5-star freshman who likely matches up with Anthony Black at both ends. Like Reeves, he’ll take about half his shots from beyond the arc and, like Reeves, he hits around 40% of them. Also like Reeves, he’s not much of a threat inside the arc. Wheeler is the veteran who advanced stats have never really liked. He grades as Kentucky’s worst starter. Despite a huge 28% assist rate, he turns the ball over too much (19%) and is a very bad defender.
Kentucky’s bench is extremely thin. The main guy you’ll see is 6’3 sniper CJ Frederick, who can sub for either Wheeler or Wallace. More than two-thirds of his shots are 3-pointers, though those only drop for him at a 34% clip. The two frontcourt subs are 6’6 Chris Livingston and 6’9 Lance Ware. Livingston is a replacement-level defender, though he does foul a bit too much (just 0.52 kills per foul). Ware is having a rough year. He has the team’s worst turnover rate (24%) and is the worst-graded defender (22 DRAPM). If the Hogs can get Toppin and especially Tshiebwe to the bench with foul trouble, Kentucky will be in a very tough spot.
When Kentucky has the ball
Kentucky’s offense is extremely dangerous in transition. They get moving very quickly after clearing a defensive board and will try and create a fast break if the defense doesn’t get back. When forced into the halfcourt, they have their fair share of struggles this season.
Kentucky depends on good shot generation. They are an elite offensive-rebounding team (mostly thanks to Tshiebwe) and they don’t turn it over much either (44th).
Despite ranking 38th in 3FG% and 36th in Rim FG%, Kentucky’s hideous shot selection is the reason the Wildcats don’t shoot well. The Cats love midrange jumpers and will happily settle for them over 3-pointers. The big key for Arkansas will be forcing those midrange shots: Arkansas allows too many shots near the rim (this has been discussed at length), and if Kentucky can continually get to the rim, then they won’t have to settle for as many midrange shots. This game is a monstrous opportunity for Makhel Mitchell to show off his value on defense.
When Arkansas has the ball
Kentucky’s defensive philosophy is simple enough: make the offense earn it. The Wildcats are very good at getting back on defense and preventing transition possessions. The problem? Opponents have been earning it. Kentucky ranks just 150th in halfcourt defensive efficiency.
The Hogs should be pretty content to play this game. Arkansas has had major issues getting in transition in SEC play, falling to 160th in transition percentage and 118th in transition scoring rate (that’s transition points per 100 possessions). But the are at least passable in the halfcourt, and given Kentucky’s halfcourt defense, have a big advantage if neither team runs.
Thanks to Tshiebwe, Kentucky finishes off missed shots with defensive rebounds at an excellent rate. They also don’t foul too much. But that’s about all they do well. They don’t force turnovers or defend shots well at all.
That rim defense (125th share, 195th FG%) is somewhat eye-popping. Kentucky lacks a rim protector (Tshiebwe doesn’t really block shots), and their guards aren’t much help if they get caught having to defend under the basket.
So it’s time to ask that question again: does Kentucky play zone? Arkansas really is bad against zones – South Carolina was the latest to frustrate the Hog offense with one – but John Calipari hates zone defense. He’s used it before, out of necessity, but he’s all about getting guys ready for the NBA, and the zone isn’t used in the NBA. With so many NBA scouts likely to be tuning into this game to watch the 5-stars from both sides, does he really want to make his pro prospects play such a college defense?
If the Cats do go zone, expect all the usuals: get Jalen Graham into the game, hit open 3-pointers, crash the offensive boards, et cetera. If the Cats stick with man, then Ricky Council IV and the Mitchell twins are the biggest names to watch.
Keys to the Game
- Get back on defense. The Wildcat offense is most dangerous in transition. If the Hogs can make them play a halfcourt game, then the advantage swings strongly in the Hogs’ favor.
- Battle on the defensive boards. Kentucky makes its living on the glass. That’s a problem for an Arkansas team that let Texas A&M and South Carolina rule the boards. Arkansas cannot give Kentucky repeated chances to score.
- Limit the unforced turnovers. Kentucky doesn’t force many turnovers, but the Hogs have struggled with mostly-unforced giveaways. Dumb passes and lost dribbles seem to be the major culprits. Any gifts will be happily accepted by the Wildcats.
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