The Razorbacks righted the ship and broke a two-game losing streak with an emphatic 84-65 win over Florida on Saturday.
Arkansas finally had the fortune of facing an opponent with even worse injury luck than the Hogs have seen this year. The Gators, teetering on the bubble, played their first game without injured star Colin Castleton, lost for the season with a broken hand. Castleton currently ranks as the 20th-best player in Division I by RAPM… the next-best Gator, Myreon Jones, ranks 230th.
So this was a must-win, and the blowout result isn’t overly surprising. But it’s still encouraging. Arkansas got a monster performance from Jalen Graham (26 points, 7 rebounds) and saw Nick Smith look much better, with 10 points. If the Hogs go on a run in March, we’ll look back at this as the game where they finally started to round into their final form.
Team Stats
Arkansas was able to push the pace for the first time in a while, getting in transition at a good rate and outscoring Florida 23-12 in transition. But the Hogs were also excellent in halfcourt, totaling a 108.9 efficiency and scoring 61 points. Florida didn’t do anything really well on offense.
The Hogs dominated around the rim, taking almost half their shots there, hitting 70%, and recording a solid 38% offensive rebound rate. With Florida missing Castleton, that’s what you expected, but it’s still nice to see it happen. Even better for Arkansas is that they were able to score this many points without drawing fouls: Arkansas’ 23 free throws per 100 possessions rate is much lower than its season average. The Hogs didn’t shoot well from beyond the arc either, but it didn’t matter.
Florida, meanwhile, had great shot selection, protected the ball, and got to the line… but couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn. They shot poorly from all levels and then were unable to get offensive boards on all those misses. Again, not having Castleton was a major factor, but Arkansas still played well defensively.
Is the midrange jumper actually a bad shot?
After the game, Muss was feeling salty and defended Arkansas’ shot selection, claiming that although “analytics guys” will tell you that a midrange jumper is a bad shot, “we don’t have them on our staff” and a “wide-open 15-footer is a good shot.”
We don’t really get into the analytics of strategy much here at Fayette Villains, so although our data tables do place a red highlight on high midrange usage (and a green highlight on high rim and 3-point usage) – for example, Arkansas’ 36% midrange usage got a red (bad) highlight because it was high, while Florida’s 15% midrange usage got a green (good) highlight because it was low – we’re not really interested in weighing in on whether or not a team should incorporate midrange shooting into their offense. Ultimately, that will depend on the shooter’s skills and many other factors. Simply declaring that a large part of the court is off-limits for shots doesn’t make much sense.
To be fair, Muss’s callout doesn’t make a lot of sense: there aren’t very many “analytics guys” who would tell you to pass up a “wide open” 15-footer. That descriptor takes the teeth out of his claim. It’s the contested 15-footers that are the problem.
Arkansas’ offense has not looked particularly good this season when they shoot a lot of midrange jumpers. The Hogs tend to fall in love with midrange when they can’t get to the rim. This has been a problem against zone, pack line, and no-middle defenses this year. The Hogs have attempted 35% or more of their field goals from midrange in eight games this season. They are 5-3 in those games, but two of the wins were narrow victories over UNC Greensboro (65-58) and a horrible South Carolina team (65-63). This Florida game was the first time all season that the Hogs took more than 35% of their shots from midrange and managed to score more than 70 points.
Midrange is a valuable shot because defenses generally don’t do much planning to defend it. Teams that come under or drop on screens, or have a low helper around the rim, are willing to leave a little space to get off a long jump shot that’s inside the arc. Teams are doing all of those things to Arkansas this year because they don’t fear the 3-point shot. If Hog shooters can take a couple steps inside the arc and significantly increase their shooting percentage, then it’s probably worth it for them to keep shooting when they are left open. I’m not sure that many “analytics guys” would disagree with that.
Individual Stats
These numbers are… interesting. For all of Jalen Graham’s work, the Hogs outscored the Gators just 60-51 while he was on the floor, and 24-14 when he was on the bench. A 13-2 run with Black, Devo, NSJ, Walsh, and Makhi on the floor was the difference.
What that really tells us is that Florida’s offense sans Castleton is atrocious, so as much of a punch as Graham provided offensively, the Hogs could have won the game by just shutting the Gators down had he not played. Florida’s 14 points with Graham on the bench came across 21 possessions in 13 minutes of gametime.
The most encouraging thing was Ricky Council’s more moderate usage. He’s been extremely inconsistent, as opponents that can limit him have been able to limit Arkansas. But with a healthy Nick Smith and more minutes for Graham, Council finally has help. He lurked in the background for most of this game, posting just a 21% usage rate (he’s been at 25% or above in almost every SEC game).
Up Next
The Hogs face Georgia at home in a midweek game. It’s another absolute must-win, as Georgia is not very good. The early model pick is 77-61 Hogs.
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