After righting the ship against Florida, the Hogs have one more game before the grueling three-game stretch to close the regular season. Arkansas cannot afford to overlook this one, as a loss would be devastating, likely costing this team at least one seed line and putting them back in the middle of the bubble.
Meet the Bulldogs
Though a lot of folks in the college basketball world believe Georgia could be a strong SEC program due to their strong recruiting ties in Atlanta, it hasn’t really happened for the Bulldogs. Georgia last made the Sweet Sixteen in 1996 and have just two at-large NCAA Tournament bids since 2002. Their best moment of the 21st century came when they won the 2008 SEC Tournament, beating John Pelphrey’s Hogs in the championship game.
Tom Crean’s four-year run in Athens was mostly a disaster, as Crean failed to generate any momentum out of five-star Anthony Edwards, who was drafted first overall after Georgia finished 16-16 (5-13) in his lone college season. After the Bulldogs sank to 6-26 (1-17) last year, Crean was out. Georgia made a very uninspired hire, taking the beleaguered Mike White off of Florida’s hands.
White seemed like a high-floor, low-ceiling type of hire, as we wrote at the time:
Is White going to win big at Georgia? No. Will he have the Bulldogs regularly competing for NCAA Tournament bids? Also no. Is this a strange hire because Georgia had nothing to lose by swinging for a fences with a young up-and-comer? Yes. But I still don’t think this is the worst hire of the cycle.
So far, all of that analysis looks pretty strong. Georgia is certainly not embarrassing the conference anymore; in fact, the Dawgs are out of the SEC cellar for this season.
As you can probably see from some of these scores, Georgia’s numbers are a bit odd because while they tend to win close, their losses often spiral out of control. They lost by 29 to Tennessee, 21 to Auburn, 25 to Texas A&M, and 49 to Alabama. Five of their six SEC wins are by single digits.
Georgia has the 162nd-best team, but the 95th-best resume. That’s because our Resume Margin stat doesn’t account for margin of victory, so Georgia winning close and getting blasted when they do lose makes their win-loss record look a little better than they probably are.
Model pick: Arkansas 77, Georgia 61. This is a Quad 3 opportunity, meaning that Arkansas gains nothing from winning, could be slightly hurt by winning very close, and will be devastated by a loss of any kind.
Scouting Report
White is the anti-Musselman in terms of roster management. Georgia somehow has nine guys who average at least 15 minutes per game, and only one that averages more than 26. So a lot of dudes will play as the Dawgs search for a hot hand. White inherited from Crean a roster of offensive-minded players who struggle to defend, so his transfer strategy involved finding some stoppers.
There are just two main guys to watch: Terry Roberts and Kario Oquendo. Roberts, a 6’3 point guard, came over from Bradley where he averaged 14 points per game last season but is arguably at his best defending on the perimeter. He’s ball-dominant and very high usage. Though nominally a threat to score from all three levels, in reality, he’s a 29% 3-point shooter who is below average at getting to the line when he gets inside the arc (just 15% free throw usage). However, his games improves his teammates, as he has an excellent 21% assist rate. He makes the Dawgs better, and RAPM loves him: he’s tied for first on the team in Offense RAPM and first in Defense RAPM.
Oquendo, a 6’4 wing, is a bit different. He’s a Crean holdover who has an inside-outside game. All of his shots are either 3-pointers are at the rim. He’s only hitting 29% on his 3-point tries, but he has a massive 29% free throw usage, so look for him to try and draw fouls. He can be a ballhog, however, as his 5% assist rate and awful ORAPM (team-worst 16) attest to. And as a Crean player, he does not play much defense at all.
The other small guard is 6’0 Justin Hill, a transfer from Longwood. He’s like a shorter Oquendo: all shots are either from beyond the arc or at the rim. He’s hitting 33% from downtown and can draw a lot of fouls (28% free throw usage). Like Oquendo, he grades very poorly as a defender.
A small backcourt means the Dawgs need their bigs to play well to have a shot. Their defense is keyed by 6’11 center Braelen Bridges, who is the team’s best rebounder. He shoots 59% from the floor (all of it at the rim), but his offensive game is dependent on having teammates set up him. Defensively, he rebounds well and avoids foul trouble, but he struggles with more aggressive and athletic big men. The final starter is 6’8 forward Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe, a capable low-post scorer who struggles to defend without fouling. You’ll also see 6’8 forward Jabari Abdul-Rahim, who helps the Dawgs stretch the floor by playing on the perimeter and acting as a rim runner, but he’s also not great on defense.
There are numerous other reserves who will likely play decent minutes; two big ones are 6’2 guard Mardrez McBride will mostly shoot 3-pointers, and 6’7 wing Jushaun Holt, who is struggling to score but grades as Georgia’s second-best defender, thanks mostly to his excellent steal rate and good defensive length.
When Georgia has the ball
Georgia’s offense has struggled, with the advanced stats suggesting that the heavy reliance on Oquendo’s volume scoring is an issue. But the Dawgs aren’t exactly loaded with guys who can immediately increase their volume.
Georgia will try to run a little bit, but their halfcourt possessions tend to be long and ineffective.
All Georgia does well is get to the free throw line. As mentioned above, keep an eye on Oquendo, Hill, and Abdul-Rahim, as they are absolute foul magnets who live at the free throw line. Abdul-Rahim in particular presents a bit of a scary matchup: more than 70% of his shots are 3-pointers, so putting Jalen Graham or one of the Mitchell twins on him doesn’t make much sense, but he gets to the line on a staggering 39% of his shot chances inside the arc, so having Jordan Walsh guard him risks some foul trouble. If Walsh is capable of defending without fouling, this could be his game, as Georgia isn’t an overly tall team.
Georgia struggles to shoot from all levels and turns it over too often. Their inability to score around the rim is a major blow to their odds of winning this game. If they can’t get key Razorbacks into foul trouble, it’s hard to see them doing much damage on offense.
When Arkansas has the ball
White has significantly improved Georgia’s defense after last year’s disastrous season. The Bulldogs are much better at keeping opponents out of transition. Unfortunately for them, they’re still getting hammered in the halfcourt.
Georgia’s defense is very passive: they want to keep the ball in front of them, softly contest shots, and then grab the defensive boards. As a result, they can defend on the perimeter and not foul.
As you might expect, they do not contest shots very aggressively: the top 8 Bulldogs by minutes played average 18.7 kills per 40 minutes as a team (kills are blocks, steals, and drawn charges). The top 8 Hogs averaged 32.2, almost twice as many. Georgia lacks defensive skill, so if they tried to play more aggressively, they would certainly foul a ton: no Bulldog’s “kills per defensive foul” numbers are nearly as good as Makhel Mitchell (1.37) and Anthony Black (1.32)… or even Ricky Council IV (1.15).
You can defend the perimeter without being too aggressive, as Georgia does. But the Dawgs don’t force turnovers, which requires aggression, and if you can get to the rim, you can score. Georgia is just 157th at preventing shots at the rim and 236th in defending shots down low.
This seems to set up nicely for the Mitchell twins, especially Makhi, who has struggled with more aggressive defenses but can feast on passive ones. Georgia will probably be willing to help in the post – even if it means allowing a semi-open 3-point shot – so any bigs need to be ready to pass the ball back out.
Keys to the Game
- Defend without fouling. Obviously, this is a key for Arkansas in every game, but the free throw line really is Georgia’s only lifeline on offense.
- Patience on offense. Arkansas’ balanced effort against Florida was a great start to the stretch run. Arkansas has the talent to exploit Georgia’s defense. If they move well without the ball, find the hot hand, and don’t settle for rushed or bad shots, I don’t think the Hogs will have much difficulty putting up points.
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