The final three-game stretch is here. All three of Arkansas’ remaining opponents will be Quad-1 games, which means it is basically impossible for Arkansas to fall out of the tournament now, even if the Hogs go 0-3. They really need to beat Kentucky in the home finale, but stealing one of these two road games would be incredible.
So we start with Alabama, the nation’s 2nd-ranked team, who leads the SEC and beat the Hogs 84-69 in Fayetteville early in SEC play.
Meet the Tide
Alabama took a huge step forward when it hired Nate Oats from Buffalo at the same time Arkansas hired Eric Musselman. The two coaches don’t like each other and games between Arkansas and Alabama have been testy. There should be no exception here.
Oats has been dominant for the Tide, at least in the regular season. Alabama won the 2021 SEC regular season and tournament titles and reached the Sweet Sixteen. After a disappointing season last year, Oats signed a top-10 recruiting class, which has been exceptional. Alabama is ranked 2nd in the nation and holds a one-game lead on Texas A&M in the SEC standings, with a trip to College Station to close out the regular season.
The Brandon Miller situation
Alabama has been at the center of most college basketball talk this week, and not because of their high ranking. Instead, law enforcement revealed that Tide star Brandon Miller provided the gun to former teammate Darius Miles that was used in the shooting death of a 23-year-old woman last month. Miller has not been charged with a crime or suspended by the university.
On January 15th, police say Jamea Harris was shot and killed after a man opened fire into the car she was sitting in following an argument in Tuscaloosa’s entertainment district, known as The Strip. That man has been charged, as has Miles, who was present and owned the gun used to kill Harris. Miles was a seldom-used reserve who was immediately kicked off the team. But we are just now learning that Miles texted Miller to bring him his gun on that fateful night, and Miller obliged. The shooting apparently happened quickly after the gun was exchanged, as police say Miller (and Tide point guard Jaden Bradley) were present at the scene when Harris was shot.
This is not a legal blog, and we are not lawyers, so we won’t discuss whether or not Miller could face charges of accessory to murder. That would seemingly depend on what Miller knew about the argument and Miles’ intentions – information that has yet to be made public. There’s a very high probably that he will not be charged. Miller’s lawyer released an extremely defensive statement this week:
Many Alabama fans have (somehow) found a way to claim that this clears Miller, but it’s worth reading closely. The statement does not even attempt to dispute the central problem here: Miller intentionally delivered a gun to a man that he knew was in an argument, and the gun he delivered was immediately used to kill another person. Forget legal charges, how is this guy still playing basketball?
Alabama’s administration has made themselves look really dumb over the past few days. First Nate Oats referred to Miller’s behavior that night as “wrong place, wrong time” and suggested it was normal college kid behavior, which was incredibly insensitive. He also claimed that Alabama has known about Miller’s involvement for a while and decided, based on the facts, that he’s in the clear. The university had to play cleanup after a predictable backlash to those words, but in the process they made things worse: by admitting that they didn’t know the full extent of Miller’s involvement – that some of the facts revealed this week were new to them – they brought back up the question of why Miller was playing when the university didn’t know how closely involved he was in a murder.
Then Oats spoke again after the South Carolina game, and his body language said enough about how uncomfortable he was with the situation:
All of this could be relevant to Saturday’s game. Alabama looked unfocused in an overtime win over South Carolina on Wednesday, though Miller had a career-high 41 points and hit the game-winner for the Tide. Alabama’s mindset for the rest of the year is worth monitoring.
Model pick: Alabama 80, Arkansas 70.
Scouting Report
Sorry to be cynical, but you can see why Alabama doesn’t want to suspend Miller. He’s good. He’s a guaranteed lottery pick and a likely all-American and SEC Freshman of the Year… if not Player of the Year.
The 6’8 freshman is particularly dangerous on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, where he hits a staggering 46%. He moves well away from the ball but can also create his own shot off the dribble. Arkansas had some success against him in the first matchup when Devo Davis defended him. It seemed like an odd choice, given the four-inch gap between them, but Devo successfully made Miller shoot only contested jumpers for most of the game. Miller can draw some fouls and score in transition but otherwise is not elite inside the arc. I would expect both sides to adjust their strategy for round two.
The main scoring guard is 6’1 Ohio transfer Mark Sears, who takes a lot of 3-pointers and draws a lot of fouls when he tries to drive. His main weaknesses are an elevated turnover rate (23%) and subpar defense, due largely to his lack of size. Sears’ backcourt mate is 6’3 freshman Jaden Bradley, who grades as an excellent all-around player even though he’s not a great shooter. He is primarily a driving guard: only about one-eighth of his shot attempts will be 3-pointers. Like Sears, he turns it over a little too often (25%), but unlike Sears, he’s a better – if very passive – defender.
In the middle is the 7-footer, Charles Bediako. Bediako is a classic center: putbacks on offense, rim protection on defense. He offers very little in terms of shot creation, and the numbers suggest that his clogging up the lane actually hurts the Alabama offense, but he’s a key part of their defense. His 14% offensive rebound rate and 5% block rate are team bests. Bediako fouls frequently and averages just 0.88 kills per block (Makhel Mitchell is at 1.35), so the Hogs can get him in foul trouble by going right at him.
The final starter is 6’10 freshman Noah Clowney. Despite his height, Clowney is a perimeter player and rim runner on offense. He draws a lot of fouls, but his high turnover rate (21%) limits his offensive effectiveness, and he’s not a great passer. Defensively, he grades as the team’s best defensive rebounder.
When Bediako gets into foul trouble, Clowney will slide to the 5 and the Tide will go for a smaller lineup with better spacing. This lineup is better offensively but worse defensively. The Tide have several options off the bench: the leader is 6’1 senior Jahvon Quinerly, an assist machine who is also a turnover machine and the team’s lowest-graded defender. You’ll also see 6’5 guard Rylan Griffen, a classic “3-pointers or free throws” guard who is strong offensively but struggles on defense. The final name is 6’8 senior Noah Gurley, a solid long defender who is a bit of a liability on offense due to his high turnover rate.
When Alabama has the ball
Alabama loves to run and attack defenses before they can get set up. They’re the nation’s best team at turning missed shots on one end into quick buckets at the other end, and their offense operates at the nation’s third-fastest pace.
Arkansas has been very strong at defending in transition and forcing opponents into a halfcourt game. If they can do that in this one, the defense has a chance to hold on.
When you see a Nate Oats-coached team, it’s all about midrange. Alabama hates the midrange and takes the third-fewest midrange jumpers of any Division I team. Instead, the Tide launch a ton of 3-pointers (5th) and try to get to the rim (67th).
Their scheme is all about driving and kicking. They draw fouls inside the arc and shoot a ton of free throws. They aren’t elite shooters at any level but their optimized shot selection helps them rank 9th in the nation in Effective FG%.
The main downside to what they do is turnovers (181st). They try to get a non-midrange shot as quickly as possible, and this often means trying to force something to happen, which can cause turnovers. Miller doesn’t turn it over much, but Sears, Bradley, and Quinerly turn it over a ton, while Clowney turns it over too often as well.
In the first matchup, the Hogs stuffed the Tide around the rim, holding them to just 48% shooting there. But they gave up way too many transition buckets (Alabama had 29 points in transition) and the 3-point defense gave out at the very end of the game, allowing Bama to seal the deal. I think Arkansas can replicate that rim defense performance. But they’ll need to force Alabama into a turnover rate higher than 16% like the first game, the transition defense has to hold up, and they have to do it all without fouling. Tall order!
When Arkansas has the ball
Alabama’s defense is built to be the opposite of its offense: while the Tide offense plays very fast and avoids midrange shots, the defense tries to force long possessions filled with midrange jumpers. Alabama forces the 72nd-slowest pace in the nation. They are somewhat vulnerable in transition, while their halfcourt defense is elite.
The Tide own the nation’s best shooting defense, thanks largely to the fact that they force the 7th-highest midrange usage in the country. But the midrange is where they will be vulnerable: the rank just 126th at defending midrange jumpers. The Tide will switch a lot of screens and sag off of bad shooters, but they will cede a lot of long jumpers. They are happy to give that up.
The more efficient way to beat them is with isolations. This is why Jalen Graham played so well in the first game and figures to be a potential impact player again.
Look where Graham receives the ball. That’s a “dead” spot on the floor for Alabama, so they don’t want to help out there. But Bediako isn’t quick enough to stay with Graham, who quickly turns that into a much more efficient shot:
Arkansas had a ton of success down the stretch by creating isolations in that dead zone and then working to a better shot. Here’s another one: same isolation, but when Bediako tries to help, he gives up a dunk:
Another strategy is the classic pick-and-roll. As mentioned above, Alabama will play a lot of “drop” coverage with Bediako, where he’ll stay back on ball screens if the ballhandler is not judged to be a major shooting threat. On this attempt, Devo does a great job of getting into the body of Bediako, opening up the pick-and-roll to Makhel:
One of the big differences from last game to this one is that instead of Devo running that pick and roll, you now have Nick Smith, who is much more dangerous on a midrange floater and can finish much better around the rim.
In the first matchup, Arkansas effectively got to the line and got to the rim, but didn’t actually start converting around the rim until late in the game. If they can shoot north of 60% around the rim, they have a very good chance in this game.
Keys to the Game
- Win the turnover battle. Alabama forces almost no turnovers and doesn’t protect the ball well on offense at all, outside of Miller. But Arkansas lost the turnover battle in that first matchup. That really cannot happen again.
- Don’t get beat down the floor. Alabama can pulverize less-athletic teams by scoring in transition. Arkansas has a good transition defense but gave up too much in the first matchup. The Hogs need to make the Tide win a halfcourt game.
- Convert around the rim. Arkansas was able to get to the rim in the first game, but didn’t shoot well enough to win. I think they’ll be able to get there again, but finishing is key.
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