Arkansas’ final road game of the season ended in disaster, as the Hogs were blown out by Tennessee, 75-57. The Vols led the entire game and Arkansas barely looked competitive. There are no positive takeaways from this one.
Team Stats
Tennessee has an elite transition defense, but the Hogs only got six transition points. The halfcourt efficiency, while bad, was not full-on atrocious, due to the Hogs actually hitting from beyond the arc, as we predicted in the preview.
The Hogs got dominated around the rim (offensively and defensively), turned it over too much, couldn’t force turnovers themselves, and fouled too often. At least they defended the perimeter and shot well from beyond the arc!
The fact that Arkansas, a team whose offense is dependent on getting to the rim, can be pushed away from the rim so easily is a major concern. Tennessee’s defense was willing to actively help in the paint and take the risk of allowing some open 3-pointers, and it paid off. With Trevon Brazile out for the year, it’s harder for Arkansas to space opponents with 5-out looks and get 1-on-1s for their tall guards. But Brazile’s been out for more than two months, so the fact that Arkansas still hasn’t found a reliable strategy to deal with this type of defense means that a solution probably isn’t coming.
For this game, as in many others, the big men that the Hogs have to have on the floor for defense end up clogging up the lane and hurting the offense. This has especially been a problem for Makhel Mitchell, who grades as Arkansas’ worst offensive player per RAPM. Makhi at least has better offensive spacing, but as we’ll see below, his defensive issues have been a major liability. And Jalen Graham isn’t a great player on offense or defense.
Individual Stats
Everyone played pretty terribly for Arkansas. We worried in the preview about whether or not Jordan Walsh could hold up against Olivier Nkamhoua, and the answer was a resounding “no”. Anthony Black is still turning it over way too much, and Nick Smith is not fully in rhythm. Seems like there are some role issues with the backcourt, and the Hogs are about out of time to figure that out.
But those issues are secondary to the fact that Arkansas was thoroughly dominated in the paint. If Arkansas gets to the NCAA Tournament and faces an opponent as dedicated as Tennessee was at getting to the paint, the season will end there. The Hogs have no answers.
The Mitchell twins were recruited to help Arkansas’ interior defense, and they’ve been a bust. Out of 363 teams in Division I, Arkansas’ defense ranks 351st at keeping opponents from getting shots at the rim. Shots at the rim are high-percentage and lead to offensive rebounds and free throws at a higher rate than other shots. The Hogs have been pretty good this year at actually defending those shots, but you can’t give that many up. At some point, continuing to allow opponents to get to the rim causes the dam to burst.
Can anyone figure out what Makhi is doing here?
That was the second of three straight buckets that the Vols scored against Makhi as the nearest defender. The first and third ones weren’t really his fault, but a better defender could have given a better contest. On that one, however, I have no idea what he was doing.
Here are some snippets from our article analyzing the signing of the twins back in the spring:
Rhode Island was actually 5.7 points worse when Makhel was on the floor versus when he was off, and Makhi’s NAPM is also negative, at -1.3.
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URI was not very good when they were both out there together.
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Overall, my take is that there were better players in the portal.
And then a few days later, analyzing Arkansas’ entire portal haul (this was pre-Ricky Council):
I have seen a little bit of negative chatter about the quality of the new adds (outside Brazile) given what was available. These numbers seem to back that up.
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I think this makes it even more glaringly obvious that Arkansas is well-set if Jaylin Williams returns, but in trouble if he doesn’t.
I think all of that holds up nicely now that the regular season is ending. Eric Musselman and staff did not have a good plan to replace Jaylin Williams, and it has cost them dearly.
Up Next
The regular season ends with a home game against Kentucky on Saturday. This game is very winnable, and the Hogs can try to create some momentum heading into the postseason if they can sweep the Wildcats.
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