Mississippi State week has arrived. Sam Pittman said he expects a “standing-room only” crowd. I’m not sure where that expectation is coming from, but I do think fans will show up and be loud, mostly because they know that any potential turnaround to save the season starts with this game. By this time next week, we’ll know a lot more about the future of Razorback football.
I didn’t bother with a preview or recap of the Alabama game, mostly because I didn’t expect anyone would be interested. This is Nick Saban’s weakest team in a while (22nd overall, 69th offense, 3rd defense), but Arkansas can’t match up. Of course, Alabama played poorly, and Arkansas played really well on defense and had a couple moments on offense. The noise-adjusted score was 27-19 Tide, making it the third one-score loss this year in which the actual score was closer than the noise-adjusted score. What that means is that Arkansas has been hanging on by the skin of its teeth to make these games close. That’s better than getting blown out, but it doesn’t provide much optimism that there will be any kind of major turnaround.
Anyway, up next is Mississippi State, the biggest must-win of the Sam Pittman era so far. A loss would drop Arkansas to 2-6 and almost-certainly end Arkansas’ bowl hopes. A final record of 3-9 or maybe 4-8 would be most likely should the Hogs drop this one. Mississippi State presently ranks 107th in our model: 98th on offense and 101st on defense, both worse than the Hogs. State’s star QB Will Rogers is banged up. Mississippi State has a lower composite talent ranking (per 247), making them the only team in the SEC West the Hogs should be able to beat on talent alone. The Bulldogs are in the first year of new schemes on both sides of the ball, and their new offensive scheme is as ill-advised as Arkansas’.
If the Hogs lose this game, it’s hard to see Pittman coming back. You can survive bad hires and bad seasons, but you can’t survive falling apart completely. A loss here would be a complete falling-apart.
My initial gut instinct is that Arkansas will win, and possibly easily. The model pick is 26-21 Hogs, with our model giving Arkansas a 58% chance to win. Although Rocket Sanders is still out, the Hogs should get back some of the defensive players who were hurt against Alabama. A much-needed open date follows this game for Arkansas.
Other Games to Watch
Tennessee at Alabama (2:30 pm, CBS). The Vols snapped a long losing streak to the Tide last year, but can they make it two in a row? Alabama’s offense is vulnerable; unfortunately for Tennessee, their own offense is disappointing. Tennessee ranks 36th in predicted points per drive and 73rd in EPA per pass. Can the Vols generate enough offense to hang around? Spread: Alabama -8.5, Model Pick: Bama 23-21
South Carolina at Mizzou (2:30 pm, SEC Network). Shane Beamer’s not on the hot seat, but fans can’t be happy after a much-hyped season is on the verge of falling apart. The new offense with Dowell Loggains has been underwhelming (what is it with coaches and changing offensive coordinators before their star QB’s final season?), but Carolina’s defense has been cooked all year. The Gamecocks are looking at a 2-5 start with Clemson, Kentucky, and Texas A&M still on the schedule. Meanwhile, Mizzou can get to 7-1 with a win here. Spread: Mizzou -7.5, Model Pick: Mizzou 30-23
Ole Miss at Auburn (6 pm, ESPN). A 30-point loss to LSU off a bye week has to sting for Hugh Freeze, who now gets to face his former team. Auburn’s defense is legit, but the offense is just so bad. Our model still thinks Ole Miss is overrated, so it’s thinking close game on the Plains. Spread: Ole Miss -6.5, Model Pick: Ole Miss 24-23
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