It’s almost time for Must Win Saturday. Arkansas (2-5, 0-4 SEC) desperately needs to salvage some hope for the football following a brutal four-game stretch. A much-needed open date awaits. But first, Mississippi State (3-3, 0-3) stands in the way.
Sam Pittman needs this one. A loss, and a bowl is now out of the question, and 3-9 is a legitimate possibility. I don’t think he survives that. A win, and a bowl is absolutely still on the table. State is quite a bit worse than the Hogs’ last four opponents and has a myriad of issues of its own on both sides of the ball.
Meet the Bulldogs
It’s important to understand that Mississippi State did the same thing Arkansas did, albeit under very different circumstances. After the tragic death of Mike Leach last December, the Bulldogs promoted well-liked defensive coordinator Zach Arnett to head coach. Arnett made two determinations:
- He could not run the Air Raid properly without Leach himself. Instead, he hired Appalachian State offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay to install a much more “traditional” offense, a version of the Spreadahan/Spread Coast that is dominant in college and the NFL right now. The unique advantages of the Air Raid would be replaced by the universality (and pro-style applications) of Barbay’s scheme. The hope was that State returning star QB Will Rogers and top RB Jo’quavious Marks would ease the transition.
- With the Air Raid gone, Arnett could relax himself from Leach’s requirement that his defense be very aggressive to get the ball back for the offense. Arnett’s attacking 3-3-5 defense had been very successful but had issues with recruiting and taking the “next step” to be an elite unit. Arnett shifted to the ubiquitous bend-don’t-break approach that is prized by analytics.
While both decisions made some sense at the time, neither has worked. The effort to turn Will Rogers from an Air Raid system quarterback to a more well-rounded pro-style quarterback has not worked, and Rogers’ stats have plummeted as a result. SEC StatCat was among the many who saw this coming ahead of time, giving Rogers the preseason award of “Checkdown Charlie” for his propensity to dump off underneath on throws, something encouraged by the Air Raid. But the lack of verticality in State’s offense has left them unable to stretch the field and create space, and the whole offense is suffering as a result.
Defensively, State’s pivot from its trademark aggression isn’t working either. The Bulldogs are among the least disruptive defenses in the country, consistently struggling to get off the field despite doing a nice job limiting big plays.
So the main difference between these two teams is that State’s transitions failed on both sides of the ball, while Arkansas’ defensive transition under co-DCs Travis Williams and Marcus Woodson is mostly working right now. That’s the only source of daylight between these teams.
The model pick is Arkansas 27, State 21. Again, must-win. And that’s before you consider that both Rogers and Marks are questionable with injuries right now.
When State has the ball
The run game with Marks (457 yards, +8 EPA, +0.10 EPA/rush) has been decent, but yikes the pass game has been bad. State has been dismal when falling behind the chains, which is fascinating because Rogers has quarterbacked his entire State career like he’s been behind the chains.
Even if Marks plays and is not limited, Arkansas is in very good position to limit the Bulldog rushing attack and punish their inefficient passing game. Arkansas’ third down defense has been excellent for two straight weeks, and now their reward is the worst third-down offense in the SEC West.
State does present some risk of explosive runs, but the Hogs might can cancel those out by forcing plenty of negative runs, an issue State has struggled with. Overall, the run game matchup is strength-on-strength.
Through the air, State might struggle, especially if Rogers isn’t 100%. The Bulldogs will have issues punishing Arkansas with explosive passes, which has been the main issue the Hogs’ defense has had this season. And the Bulldogs have struggled to keep Rogers clean: their pressure rate allowed of 25.7% is right in line with the SEC average, but Rogers isn’t particularly escapable, and State ranks just 105th in sack rate.
Overall, this is a friendly matchup for the Razorback defense. The Hogs should get plenty of pressure and can slow down State’s run game. As long as the Bulldogs don’t hit a ton of explosive plays (that’s iffy at best), it’s hard to see them doing much. They’re going to have major issues sustaining long drives and turning them into touchdowns.
When Arkansas has the ball
State’s defense is inverse of its offense: solid on the ground, bad through the air. The Bulldogs do some basic bend-don’t-break things: limiting explosive plays (59th), forcing a few turnovers (74th). But they’ve been pushed around all year: 111th in success rate, 132nd (out of 133) in leverage rate. And when they get a chance to get a stop, they often don’t: they’re 127th in passing downs success rate and 120th in points allowed per scoring chance.
I think the biggest concern for me is whether Arkansas overcommits to try and run the football. The Hog run game is not productive at all. It’s not insanely bad at moving forward (80th success rate, 58th stuff rate, 62nd line yards), but big runs basically don’t exist (124th opportunity runs, 114th explosive runs). Again, we knew this when Dan Enos was hired. His offense doesn’t produce explosive runs. Arkansas being so run-heavy makes no sense at all when the pass game has been shaky.
State’s pass defense has been picked apart all season, so the Hogs should get plenty of open receivers. I would expect the Hogs to come out throwing. While it would be nice to push the ball down the field a bit, attacking this defense by replacing early-down called runs with RPOs is an upgrade. I think Arkansas needs 20 or fewer called runs in this game, which means 40-45 snaps need to be either called passes or RPOs (some of the RPOs will become runs, of course). As you can see, State is capable of generating some pressure, but if the ball is out quick, the offense should be fine.
Enos’s audition
I’m generally of the opinion that if Pittman is Arkansas’ coach beyond 2023, he’s probably going to need to part with Enos, who ESPN’s Bill Connelly called “one of the most unforced-error coordinator hires of the offseason”. That’s a pretty succinct way of putting it. Enos caught lightning in a bottle in 2015 but has been a below-average high-major FBS coordinator otherwise. He’s not a bad quarterback developer or playcaller, but his general offensive philosophy isn’t wired for success at a school like Arkansas due to an over-dependence on excellent offensive line play, which Arkansas does not have right now.
For fans wondering if Enos was hired for Jacolby Criswell, I think they’ll be disappointed. Criswell is indeed a better pure passer than KJ Jefferson, but it’s not going to matter if he’s buried under a pile of pass-rushers on every dropback, as has happened to most Enos quarterbacks throughout his career. Enos has managed to coordinate two offenses that led the FBS in pressures allowed (2016 Arkansas and 2019 Miami), and all of his offenses since that 2015 team had elevated pressure and sack rates allowed. There’s no reason to believe that will change next year.
But if Enos actually wants to stay around – he should, as the next OC job he’s fired from will likely be his last, at least at this level – his prove-it time starts now. On the off-chance that Arkansas’ offense suddenly starts clicking, maybe he can find a way to keep his job while Arkansas looks at changes on the offensive line. The open date next week will help with adding new ideas to the offense, but the Hogs minimally need to hit 400 yards against Mississippi State and look more in-sync. We’ll see.
Keys to the Game
Come out throwing. Arkansas can’t run the ball anyway, but given the imbalance in State’s defense, it is important that they not try too hard to “establish” the run. While pushing the ball down the field to tall receivers is obviously ideal, the quick/screen/RPO game is a major improvement over called runs at this point for the offense.
Make State sustain drives. The main weakness of Arkansas’ defense has been the fact that it gives up too many explosive plays. When opponents are forced to go on long drives, the Hogs often get a stop, as they’ve been very good on their own side of the field and on third down. State has been quite bad at sustaining and finishing drives; if that’s the only way they can win, this is going to be an uphill battle for the Bulldogs.
Don’t shoot yourself in the foot. One of the reasons the Alabama game was so close? Arkansas made very few mistakes. There were execution errors, but the Hogs had just two penalties, zero turnovers, and two long made field goals. They don’t have to be that perfect this time, but “don’t lose the turnover battle, the missed field goal battle, or have more than 30 additional penalty yards” is a good and attainable goal for this one.
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