After a week off to recalibrate the offense under interim OC Kenny Guiton, the Hogs are back in action Saturday at Florida.
This is an important game, because a loss, particularly a blowout loss, means that the final three home games will probably not be well-attended. Few things move the needle on a coaching change more than fan disinterest, and if the Hogs get routed on Saturday and have 45,000 people in the stands for the Auburn game, it will not be a good look.
Here are the biggest headlines heading into game week.
The playbook has been cut by 30%
That figure is according to Sam Pittman, who has emphasized a need for simplification. That’s a nice start, as it means that unpracticed plays won’t be called in-game (and worked-on plays will actually be called), but if the remaining plays are too complicated, it won’t help much. Can Guiton make things easier for KJ Jefferson? Kendal Briles told him “throw here” on most passes, but Dan Enos went for a more pro-style scheme where Jefferson had to get through progressions. I get the idea, but that’s not who Jefferson is, and it was a disaster. He looked indecisive and ended up checking down way too often. A poor offensive line that can’t protect long enough to get through progressions didn’t help either.
Rocket Sanders is back
It’s weird that we already did this with Nick Smith where a bunch of morons who had no insider knowledge claimed that Smith just gave up on the basketball team, when in fact he was legitimately injured and working his tail off to return, and even ended up tanking his draft stock to try and help make his team better. You’d think that Razorback nation would learn, but nope, a lot of the same people have suggested for a few weeks now that Sanders has quit on the team when he went to seek treatment for a lingering knee issue. Maybe those folks will (finally) feel some shame. Somehow, I doubt it, but it would be nice if the sane fans among us would be more proactive about calling that nonsense out when folks spew it. All of that is to say that Sanders is back at practice. He’s questionable for Saturday. I don’t really doubt that Sanders has been discontent as well as injured – remember, we noted before Enos coordinated one game that this was not a good fit for Arkansas’ personnel, namely Sanders – but I don’t understand the gall to question a great player’s dedication without knowing anything about the situation, especially when we just went through the same thing during basketball season.
Did Auburn know Mississippi State’s offensive signs?
Auburn beat State 27-14 on Saturday, but on Sunday reports surfaced that Auburn had managed to crack Mississippi State’s offensive signs. Everyone’s on high alert for this kind of thing given the apparently-elaborate sign-stealing operation that Michigan has been running for a couple years, but it’s worth noting that the allegation here is simply that Auburn figured out State’s (offensive) signs during the game, mostly because State wasn’t really bothering to make them too complicated. So that’s not illegal, and probably not even unethical.
It does raise two interesting questions. First, will the revelation of sign-stealing across college football increase adoption of helmet headsets for quarterbacks? A quick history: teams used to huddle. Remember those days? Signs could still be sent in from the sideline, but the call could also be sent into the huddle with a sub. The hurry-up, no-huddle revolution that started around 2008 changed that. Foregoing the huddle means all 11 offensive players need to see the sign, so teams went for elaborate sign systems that included large posterboards and several people giving hand signs (the offensive players knew which one was the real signer). In the NFL, going without a huddle isn’t a big deal, because the quarterback has a radio in his helmet and can hear the call from his playcaller. But the college game, as of right now, does not allow for helmet radios. It’s been 15 years since no-huddle offenses exploded, so I’m a bit surprised that it’s taken this long to finally expose a major sign-stealing operation. The solution seems pretty simple, but as always with the NCAA, how quickly will they react?
The second one is making me revisit last year’s 21-19 loss to Liberty, also coached by Hugh Freeze. In our extensive Box Score Breakdown – still the most-read football post in Fayette Villains history – I made these points about how Liberty was playing Arkansas’ run game:
Notice that the two plays we’ve shown so far have opposite twists. Against the outside zone, Liberty brought the inside man around the edge rusher, while on this play, the edge rusher goes around the inside man. Both were perfect for what Arkansas was running. So there are only three explanations: one, Liberty was really lucky and guessed right; two, Arkansas has been tipping what they are running based on formation and running back alignment; or three, Liberty knew Arkansas’ play calls. My guess is two, but three isn’t out of the question, given that Arkansas doesn’t huddle so someone could theoretically figure out terminology and hand signals.
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This play is a little suspect to me because it really looks like Liberty knew what was coming. This is the only time I saw the Flames twist their two interior linemen, and the Flames execution of this twist – the underneath lineman takes Sanders, while the twisting lineman takes Jefferson – seems almost too perfect.
Anyway, this news makes me a bit curious: does Freeze make it a point to try and crack other team’s signals? That seems like the type of thing he would do. It’s something to think about, and I hope the Hogs are prepared for it in a couple weeks.
Games to Watch
Texas A&M at Ole Miss (11 am, ESPN). At just 5-3, the Aggies still have this game and a date with LSU, so 7-5 is absolutely a real possibility. Would the Aggies actually fire Jimbo Fisher if they sink that low? I doubt it. That’s a ton of money, even if Middle Eastern threats to cut oil supply over the Gaza War could be set to make a bunch of Aggie donors a lot richer. I still think A&M chalks it up to Conner Weigman’s injury and gives it another go next year, but at some point, 5-star recruits have to see it for what it is and stop committing. Right? Spread: Ole Miss -3.5, Model Pick: Ole Miss 24.0-23.9
Mizzou at Georgia (2:30 pm, CBS). Having taken down Florida and Kentucky with little trouble, Georgia now turns to Mizzou, it’s newest challenger in the East. If Mizzou actually manages to win this game, the SEC East could be on the line when the Tigers visit Fayetteville in the season finale. I expect a Georgia win, but the Tigers are sneaky-good this year. Spread: Georgia -16, Model Pick: Georgia 29-22
Auburn at Vanderbilt (3 pm, SEC Network). Payton Thorne looked decent against Mississippi State, which is a huge step up for Auburn. I’m interested to see if Auburn’s offense continues to improve, because if so, look out. Spread: Auburn -12, Model Pick: Auburn 27-22
LSU at Alabama (6:45 pm, CBS). If Mizzou-Georgia is the de facto East championship (for this week), then LSU-Alabama is the SEC West championship. LSU’s amazing offense against Alabama’s amazing defense is going to be fun to watch. Has LSU’s defense finally rounded into form? Is Alabama’s offense finally at championship level? We’ll find out! By the way, the model is thinking upset. Spread: Alabama -3, Model Pick: LSU 27-26
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