It seems like Arkansas manages to do something every week to draw fans back in. After the ugly loss to BYU, the Hogs had a strong showing at LSU to give hope. They followed that with a devastating loss to Texas A&M, but then roped everyone back in with close losses at Ole Miss and Alabama. Then came that hideous Mississippi State game, but Sam Pittman fired OC Dan Enos after the game, allowing fans to hope for improvement yet again.
How much Arkansas’ pitiful offense can improve will determine how the team finishes. Morale is probably fragile, so a blowout loss in Gainesville probably causes a lot of guys to let go of the rope, which would spell the end of the Pittman era. A loss of any kind probably means empty seats for the final three home games, which is also not great.
But sudden offensive improvement isn’t out of the question. We’ve already laid out what this would look like, and the Hogs have had two weeks to figure out how to proceed. All indications are that there’s energy and hope for improvement. We’ll see.
Meet the Gators
Florida is strong on offense but has struggled on defense this year. Billy Napier’s seat is warm, and this is basically a must-win for him to avoid his seat being blazing hot entering 2024. The Gators already have three losses (Utah, Kentucky, Georgia, all lopsided) and still have Florida State and LSU on the schedule. Lose this game and 6-6 is the most likely record, which would not go over well in Gainesville.
Our model pick is Florida 26, Arkansas 20. There isn’t much betting value there, since the Gators have hovered around 6-point favorites since Sunday.
When Florida has the ball
Florida’s offense has been strong when it can hit big plays on early downs. It has struggled when it can’t do that. The Gators generate a ton of production on standard downs (20th) and can get explosive plays (37th). However, they are bad in must-pass situations (95th) and don’t finish their longer drives well (81st). They also give up a lot of negative plays (100th) and get knocked off-schedule too easily (90th).
This is a mixed bag for Arkansas in terms of matchups. The Hogs are strong on early downs (19th) and are good at forcing negative plays (12th), but have given up too many explosives (106th). If they can dominate on third down and in the red zone, they’ll have a good shot to hold Florida’s offense in check.
Florida is pass-first, and their run is only used to generate explosives. It is not efficient and a ton of its runs are stuffed (125th). The problem with facing a rushing attack like this is that you can contain it all day and then one or two big runs makes it all worth it for the Gators.
Arkansas’ run defense has been very good and should generate plenty of negative plays. The explosive run threat is the only possible issue.
Florida turned to Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz to handle the offense. Mertz was asked to be a very conservative, low-risk distributor, and he’s been just that. Florida ranks dead-last in the SEC in average depth of target (the average target is just 6.8 yards past the line of scrimmage) and first in yards after catch (60% of Florida’s passing yards are after the catch). Mertz has the lowest interceptible pass rate in the SEC, so he’s not going to put the ball in harm’s way. They’re going to try and overwhelm you with short, accurate passes and hope their receivers can break some tackles.
This explains why Florida is a good passing team that is bad in must-pass situations. When defenses can drop back (like in Barry Odom’s rush-3, drop-8 coverages), they can keep the Gator receivers in front and stop them short of the sticks.
Pressure is another problem. Despite a heavy diet of quick passes, Mertz is pressured on 27% of his attempts and 36% of his dropbacks, both third-worst among current SEC starters.
Arkansas’ strategy is obvious: don’t give up explosives on early downs, make the run game a non-factor, and get pressure on Mertz on passing downs. In that sense, the “conservative on early downs, aggressive on late downs” strategy is exactly what has worked for Arkansas all year.
When Arkansas has the ball
It’s hard to tell what to expect from Arkansas in this game, as it will be our first look at Kenny Guiton as offensive coordinator. This is actually a pretty friendly matchup for a brand-new OC: the Gators are just 101st in overall EPA/play allowed. They don’t force many negative plays (99th), don’t force many turnovers (125th), and aren’t great on early downs (93rd). Negative plays and going nowhere on early downs have been the biggest issue Arkansas has faced this year, so it’s a relief to see this defense.
Explosive play rate is really interesting, as Florida ranks a dismal 113th in explosive play rate allowed. As we’ve discussed many times before, Arkansas was very good at explosive plays under Kendal Briles, but Dan Enos has never been good at generating them in his entire career. The Hogs’ offense collapsed to 123rd out of 133 FBS teams in generating explosives this year, their lowest-ranked stat. But now Enos is gone, and not only is Florida’s defense bad at preventing big plays, but the Hogs’ final three SEC opponents (Florida, Auburn, Mizzou) happen to be the three worst defenses in the conference at explosive play rate allowed. If Guiton wants the job permanently, he has an incredible opportunity to make Arkansas’ offense look totally different over this final month.
Is Rocket Sanders going to play? He led the SEC in explosive run rate last year, and now Florida possesses the SEC’s worst explosive run defense. The Gators do a good job containing the run on most plays, but when they give up a successful run, it’s usually a huge run.
Finally, a defense that isn’t good at getting after the quarterback. Arkansas’ first five SEC games featured five strong pass rushes, but Florida, while its coverage is fine, does not get a ton of pressure. KJ Jefferson has been sacked 29 times this year. Much of that is on the offensive line, but Arkansas hasn’t adjusted particularly well. Expect the Hogs to roll the pocket and emphasize simpler, quicker-developing plays. How much impact will those changes have immediately? It’s hard to say.
The big key here is big plays. Arkansas simply has to have them. Florida’s defense can’t punish Arkansas in the ways that the first five SEC teams did (namely negative plays and turnovers), but it won’t matter if Arkansas can’t punish Florida with big plays. The Gators are good enough to contain the run and cover receivers, so the Hogs have to get maximum bang for their buck on the plays that do work.
Keys to the Game
Gotta have big plays. Arkansas’ only real shot is to generate more big plays than we’ve seen from them all year. Florida’s defense will make that possible, but it has to happen through both the run and the air.
Contain the Gator offense on early downs. Tackling in space and limiting big runs are the most important factors here. Florida’s offense struggles when it falls off-schedule, but Mertz can get into a rhythm pretty quickly on early downs.
Win third down, turnovers, or the red zone. I’m cheating here by picking three, but Arkansas needs a huge win among these three high-leverage stats, all of which are winnable. Arkansas almost beat Ole Miss just by dominating third down and has been very good on third down all year. Arkansas’ red zone defense has been strong (and Florida’s red zone offense is bad), and the Gators struggle to generate turnovers while Arkansas has an excellent turnover margin.
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