Arkansas opens the 2023-24 season on Monday night against Alcorn State in Fayetteville. It’s the first of four home games to open the year before the Hogs get into the Battle 4 Atlantis and the big Duke game.

Here’s what to be watching for early in the season.

Last year’s recap

Arkansas went 22-14 last season, including 8-10 in the SEC, only their fourth losing SEC season since 2011. It was disappointing considering that they’d signed the 2nd-ranked recruiting class in the country (and best in school history) and had pulled in several major transfers. Injuries, of course, were the major theme. Five-star freshman Nick Smith, the highest-rated recruit in Hog history, ended up missing 17 games over two stints with lingering knee issues, and rarely looked like an NBA lottery pick in the 19 games he did play in. Transfer forward Trevon Brazile, who was earning starter-level minutes, tore his ACL in the ninth game of the season. Brazile and Smith played just one full game together.

Losing two of their top five expected players had impacts beyond just those two guys being out. Smith and Brazile happened to be the two best floor spacers Arkansas had. The roster that Musselman had assembled had only one weakness from the onset of the season: outside shooting. Unfortunately, Smith was supposed to be the top 3-point shooter, and Brazile was a major floor stretcher due to his ability to play on the perimeter as a 4 or 5. This made Arkansas’ already-suspect floor spacing truly awful, and that became the biggest problem.

Bad floor spacing is primarily caused by a lack of 3-point shooting, though there are other factors. Arkansas ranked 301st out of 363 teams in 3-point percentage, and the Hogs rarely even attempted 3-pointers (348th). This lack of spacing creates all kinds of problems:

• Can’t get in transition. Retreating defenses know they can pack it inside against bad jump-shooting teams, and that’s what opponents did when the Hogs tried to run. Arkansas played at its slowest pace in Muss’s four years, ranking just 143rd (out of 363 teams) in transition rate and 139th in average possession length. Transition possessions (first shot taken within the first 10 seconds of getting the ball) tend to be significantly more efficient than halfcourt possessions, so the best offenses can always get in transition.
• More turnovers. Bad spacing means that defenders are generally very close to the offensive players. The closer all five defenders are to the ball, the more shots they have to steal it or deflect passes. After the 2021 and 2022 teams were elite at protecting the ball, Arkansas plummeted to 190th in turnover rate in 2023.
• Inability to get to the rim. Arkansas ended up ranking 96th in rim usage, but they were top-10 throughout non-conference play. By the time SEC play rolled around, opponents started using pack-line and zone tactics against them, and the Hogs rarely had an answer. The Hogs ended up taking a ton of midrange jumpers, and 2-point jumpers are well-known as the least-efficient shot in basketball.

Despite all that bad news, Arkansas still ranked a respectable 44th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They remained elite at getting to the free throw line (6th in free throw rate) and at finishing around the rim (13th in eFG% at the rim). When they were able to get good shots, they made them and drew fouls.

Defensively, Arkansas was solid as usual, ranking 29th in adjusted defensive efficiency. That’s not championship-level, but it’s good. The Hogs’ main strengths were smothering the perimeter (15th in 3-point usage) and preventing transition possessions (36th). They defended all three levels of shots – 3-point, midrange, rim – at a top-75 clip. They were 57th in turnover rate. The main weaknesses were fouling too much (317th in opponent free throw rate) and opponent offensive rebounding (210th)..

The fouling thing is going to happen with the way Arkansas defends. Musselman’s success at Arkansas has been built around extreme ball pressure defense. The Hogs are exclusively man-to-man and defend the ballhandler very aggressively at all times. This pays off in March (when only teams with good guardplay advance) because Arkansas is capable of shutting down great guards, much less flawed ones. But that aggressiveness means constant physicality and hand checks. A referee with an active whistle can cause fouls to rack up quickly against the Hogs.

For the record, here are the top six single seasons in terms of wins above replacement (WAR) under Musselman:

• 2023 Anthony Black +10.8
• 2022 Jaylin Williams +10.3
• 2022 JD Notae +10.1
• 2020 Mason Jones +8.8
• 2021 Moses Moody +7.4
• 2021 Justin Smith +7.1

Expected? Unexpected? Black was Arkansas’ highest-graded player at both ends of the floor, and he led the team in minutes played.

2024 Roster

Let’s go one-by-one and look at the 2024 roster.

Backcourt

It starts in the backcourt with veteran Devo Davis, a senior in his fourth season with the program. Davis was the hero of the 2021 Sweet Sixteen and the 2023 Second Round, and usually saves his best ball for March. He graded at 81 overall in 2023: 71 on offense and 87 on defense. Defense is his strength, as he’s an elite perimeter defender. Offensively, he was a mixed bag. He suddenly improved his 3-point shooting to 35% (over 40% after SEC play started), which was a nice surprise, but overall, he was sort of forced to take on a larger offensive role with the Hogs’ offense struggling, and it didn’t always pay off. Because of his affinity for midrange jumpers, he only shot 48% eFG% and only got a trip to the line on 13% of his shot chances inside the arc. Both are… not great. I would expect him to take on a lesser offensive role this year and get back to his strengths as a defender.

The next guy who will play a ton of minutes at guard is 6’6 Houston transfer Tramon Mark. He graded at 79 last year for Houston: 60 offense, 94 defense. Like Devo, he is an absolutely elite perimeter defender. In terms of defensive stats, he’s a minor shot-blocking threat and he’s a bit less foul-prone than Devo. His offense is interesting. He doesn’t grade particularly well thanks to a bad 44% eFG% (including 32% 3-point shooting and heavy midrange reliance). However, he’s better than Devo at drawing fouls (21% free throw rate) and he turns it over less (excellent 11% turnover rate). Devo had to be an offensive initiator a lot last year; I expect Mark to take over that role this year.

The main scoring threat in the backcourt is El Ellis, a 6’3 transfer from Louisville. Ellis averaged 17.7 points per game for the Cardinals last year, where he was the centerpiece of a bad team. His 30% usage rate was 2022 JD Notae-level. He grades at 84 overall: 94 offense, 39 defense. He was Louisville’s best offensive player by an enormous margin. He’s not a great shooter (47% eFG%), but he’s excellent at drawing contact and getting to the line (where he’s an 81% shooter), and he also averaged 4.9 assists per 40 minutes, which is pretty good considering that an assist from Ellis meant that someone besides Ellis had to make a shot. His explosive style puts a ton of pressure on opposing defenses. Defensively, there are question marks in the high-level numbers, though just watching him play makes it obvious that he’s a capable defender. He averaged just 1.0 kill per 40 minutes (“kills” are steals, blocked shots, or drawn charges) and was a bad rebounder. As a team, Louisville got slightly better defensively when he checked out of the game. Of course, it’s fair to ask how much of his bad defense was the result of him having to carry Louisville on offense. On a more balanced team where he has a more defined role, he may be able to show out more.

I expect Ellis, Devo, and Mark will be the starters in the Hog frontcourt, with 6’5 Temple transfer Khalif Battle filling in the sixth man role for now. Battle is a wing, but he can sub in for any of the guards (with whoever is left taking over lead guard duties). Battle grades at 84 overall (91 offense, 51 defense), and like Ellis, he’s here to score points, posting a massive 30% usage for the Owls last year. Battle is a true 3-or-foul wing: about half of his shot chances will be 3-pointers (he shoots a respectable 35%), and on the other half that become 2-point chances, he’ll draw a foul on an excellent 31% of them. That allows him to shoot a fantastic 57% true shooting. Oh yeah, and he turns it over on just 13% of his possessions, also excellent. The main downside is that, like Ricky Council IV last year, he is a score-first player, so his passing and court vision isn’t elite. Defensively, he’s also similar to Ellis: bad grade, but how much of that was due to his high offensive usage? He rebounds very poorly for a player of his size and was not one of the better players on his team in terms of steals. As with Ellis, Temple got better defensively when he left the game. But also like Ellis, the raw ability seems to be there, so we’ll see.

That four-man group is going play almost all the minutes at the 1-2-3 spots, so the next two guys are battling to make the rotation. First, there’s 6’7 Cincinnati transfer Jeremiah Davenport. Davenport is Arkansas’ lowest-graded transfer: 70 overall, 87 offense, 22 defense. Offensively, he’s very similar to Battle as a 3-or-foul wing. About 70% of his shots are 3-pointers, though he shot just 32% last year. When he drives, he draws a foul on about 28% of his shot attempts (pretty good). He is a decent offensive rebounder for a wing (1.6 offensive boards per 40). And he basically never turns it over (just 7%). Defensively, though, yikes. He struggles to defend without fouling, and Cincinnati got quite a bit better when he checked out of the game (team defensive efficiency of 102.7 with Davenport in, versus 100.4 and 99.2 with his primary backups in). He does offer nice versatility, as he can play the wing in most lineups but can slide the to the 4 in some small-ball lineups due to the fact that he’s 6’7. I think he’ll play limited minutes in most games, but there will several friendly matchups where he can be a big factor, especially when he can play the 4.

Incoming 6’2 freshman Layden Blocker can also handle lead guard duties. He looked smooth and confident in the exhibition win over Purdue. Right now, his defense is solid, and his ceiling as a defender is very high. If Ellis struggles on defense, Blocker could steal some minutes at point guard. Blocker can play fast and run the pick-and-roll. His jump shot is a work in progress, as are his overall point guard instincts, but the tools are there to be a very good player at both ends.

Finally, there’s 6’5 rising sophomore Joseph Pinion. Honestly, Pinion is probably still a year away from being a major factor, unless injuries cause some lineup chaos. He actually graded at an excellent 88 last season (that’s fifth-best on last year’s team). He shot 38% from beyond the arc and was charged with zero turnovers in 149 minutes (almost four full games’ worth of minutes). That’s amazing. His defense definitely needs some work, but if other guys struggle to make 3-pointers, he could earn some minutes.

Frontcourt

The frontcourt also starts with a returner: 6’10 Trevon Brazile, who was having an excellent season before he tore his ACL. In his limited minutes, Brazile graded at 91 (75 offense, 98 defense). He can play the 4 or the 5 depending on the matchup and at 6’10 can play both offense and defense on the perimeter, which makes him an incredibly flexible piece or Musselman to use. Brazile is a strong help defender, where he can block shots and deflect passes with his long arms and feet that are quick for his size. He also rebounds pretty well, especially on defense. He is not a low-post player, so when an opponent has a true center that is a threat (like Purdue’s Zach Edey), then Brazile will play the 4 and the Hogs will give minutes at the 5 to someone else. In small-ball lineups, when the opponent lacks a post threat, Brazile will play the 5 to maximize Arkansas’ team athleticism and floor spacing on offense. Offensively, Brazile appeared to have added a 3-point shot in limited action last year (he didn’t do much from 3 at Mizzou), shooting 38% from downtown. He also hit two more triples in the exhibition win. That makes him a much stronger offensive threat. His 18% turnover rate last year was a bit high, and that was the biggest knock against him.

In the big boy lineups, Brazile will be joined by 6’10 super senior Makhi Mitchell, last year’s starting center. Mitchell graded at 90 (80 offense, 94 defense) and provided physicality in the paint that helped Arkansas match up with more old-school opponents. Offensively, he was low-usage but shot an excellent 67% eFG%. He’s a roll-and-cut big who can execute the pick-and-roll (a staple in Arkansas’ scheme) pretty well. Other times, he’ll play in the dunker spot and accept a dump-off pass for an easy layup, something we’ll probably see more of this year given the improved offensive spacing. The main knock on him on offense is that he does nothing to improve floor spacing. He can’t play on the perimeter, but he’s also not a great post-up guy, so he doesn’t draw many double-teams. His scoring, while efficient, is entirely dependent on guards creating for him. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing for a center, but it’s a limitation for sure. Defensively, he provides more value, as he’s a very good defensive rebounder, a decent shot blocker, and even a minor steal threat. And for the defensive stat-stuffing Arkansas gets from him, he doesn’t foul much. His minutes will likely ebb and flow, but he’ll probably at least appear in every game he’s healthy. The Hogs would probably like to not play him as much in games where they can play small ball.

The rest of the frontcourt is intriguing. Everyone is getting excited about Round 2 of 6’9 Jalen Graham, who struggled to see the floor last year but should be a major benefactor of better spacing, which is probably why he returned. Graham graded really well: 92 overall, 86 offense, 93 defense. He shot an excellent 65% eFG% on high volume – he sort of dominated the ball when he was in the game at all times – and he showcased an array of impressive finesse moves around the rim. The main problem? Arkansas’ horrible floor spacing meant he had defenders draped over him at all times, limiting his room to work. That led to a way-too-high 21% turnover rate, suppressing his offensive grade. But in an offense that can put four 3-point threats on the perimeter? He’s going to have all kinds of space to score around the rim. Outside of scoring, Graham did a lot of other things well: he’s a good rebounder at both ends, blocked shots at a higher rate than Brazile, and recorded 1.7 steals per 40 minutes, near the top of the team. And despite his reputation as a poor defender, the numbers just don’t back that up: Graham’s on-floor team defensive efficiency was 92.7, best on the team.

A late transfer add was 6’6 Memphis forward Chandler Lawson, a defense-and-rebounding specialist. Lawson showcased his rugged defensive style in the exhibition, where he used his long arms to great effect against Edey. He graded at just 64 overall (55 offense, 75 defense), but there’s a lot of upside if he can find the right role. He’s an excellent rebounder, especially for his size (more than 10 total boards per 40 minutes) and can block a few shots (1.1 per 40). He does foul a ton, which will limit him if the Hogs try to play him a lot of minutes. But I don’t see that happening, barring injury. He’ll fill the bulldog role that a guy like Kamani Johnson has in years past, but Lawson’s game is far from identical, especially on offense. He can play around the perimeter (a big focus in Arkansas’ offseason adds), and he even shot 50% from beyond the arc on limited attempts. He actually shot a solid 59% eFG% on pretty low usage for Memphis last year. His 19% turnover rate is way too high for a low usage player, but that’s the only major knock on him. I think he’ll be in the rotation, and like Kamani, he’ll probably have a few games where he has some big moments.

The final add to the roster was 6’7 Southern Miss transfer Denijay Harris, who is certainly on the outside looking in for minutes. Harris also grades at 64, but he has no specialization: he graded at 65 on offense and 57 on defense. Like Lawson, he rebounds well at both ends. But unlike Lawson, he’s not nearly as active as a defender, and he doesn’t help space the floor on offense. He scored 8.9 points per game for the Golden Eagles last year on solid 56% eFG%, but much of his game doesn’t translate to the SEC, at least enough to earn major minutes.

The freshman is 6’11 Baye Fall, who I don’t expect to play a major role this year. When he does see the floor, Fall will be a defensive specialist. He’s a major shot block threat, and his overall post defense and rebounding will improve as he gets stronger. I think he’d get eaten up by physical SEC forwards right now, but if protected, he can develop into a good post help defender. Offensively, he’s a work in progress, and outside of offensive rebounding, he doesn’t add much. The Hogs would like to get him developmental minutes during the early non-conference.

What to watch for in the early non-conference

Arkansas opens with Alcorn State, the first of four straight games before Thanksgiving where the Hogs will be heavily favored and should start to figure out minutes and rotations.

One big theme of Arkansas’ offseason adds is offensive pop. Ellis, Battle, and Davenport all grade as poor defenders but elite scorers. My theory on Arkansas’ transfer strategy is basically this:

• Defense is easier to “coach up” than offense
• The raw ability to create shots is hard to coach, and thus needs to be recruited

Guys can be taught a lot, but the instincts required to be a true three-level scorer who can be decisive with the ball in hand is hard to coach. Arkansas has one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, and it’s also a team filled with guards who are comfortable with the ball. Ellis, Battle, and Mark all limit turnovers, present a 3-or-drive threat, and can dish out assists. Add in Devo (3-and-D) and Davenport (3-point specialist) into the mix, and you have a very dangerous guard lineup. I expect Arkansas’ transition rate to be much higher and overall offensive pace to be much faster. I think you’ll see fewer turnovers, more 3-point attempts, and overall better spacing.

The key is going to be if the offensive creators can also defend. The numbers are skeptical about the defense of Ellis, Battle, and Davenport. Theoretically, this could either be Eric Musselman’s best offensive or his best defensive team, but probably not both.

Take this offensive lineup:

• Ellis
• Pinion
• Battle
• Davenport
• Graham

And then this defensive lineup:

• Blocker
• Devo
• Mark
• Brazile
• Makhi

That offensive lineup is amazing. So is the defensive lineup. One problem: I used ten different players to form the two. You can only play five guys at once. Arkansas’ depth and overall roster flexibility is incredible, but can they consistently put five guys on the floor who can score and defend at the same time? That’s going to be the question.

If my theory that Arkansas’ staff thinks they can coach up defenders is correct, then Arkansas’ best hope for a great season is for Ellis and Battle to actually be competent defenders, even good ones. There’s precedent for this: almost every transfer Arkansas has signed under Musselman has improved on defense more than they’ve improved on offense while at Arkansas. The ultimate example is Stanley Umude, who graded at 46 on defense in his final year at South Dakota (in the middle of the pack of his own team) and then graded at 87 in his lone year in Fayetteville. Umude was basically the same offensive player in both places, but his defensive improvement is what made him great. Ditto for Au’Diese Toney (68 to 79 on defense, offense basically the same). And for Justin Smith (84 to 93).

So watch the defense of some of the newcomers. I’ll be anxious to get an early read on their numbers.

Offensive spacing and flow is, obviously, the other big thing to watch. The Hogs looked well-spaced against Purdue, but how will they look when the games actually count? If Graham is back healthy, will he look better with room to work? Can the Hogs get in transition more and play faster? How much value can Brazile add on offense as a stretch 4 or 5?

On Monday, the Hogs face Alcorn. The Braves have one of the stronger SWAC programs and finished as the 279th-best team in our model last year. Per last year’s numbers, they are very aggressive on defense and will try to force turnovers, but this causes them to get beat down the floor too often, and they foul a lot. Offensively, they don’t shoot well at all, but they crash the offensive glass pretty well. That’s about how most SWAC schools plays. The model says last year’s Hogs beat last year’s Braves 82-60, with the Hogs having about a 97% chance of victory. But it’s a new season, so we can probably throw last year’s numbers out.

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