Box Score Breakdown: Arkansas 86, Old Dominion 77

Box Score Breakdown: Arkansas 86, Old Dominion 77

Adam Ford

A poor defensive performance meant Arkansas let Old Dominion hang around a bit too long, but the Razorbacks didn’t trail over the game’s final 37 minutes and pulled out an 86-77 win to move to 3-0.

Advanced Stats

The Monarchs ended up dependent on some hot 3-point shooting to stay alive, so they had longer gaps in their scoring. As we see below, Arkansas scored on 62% of its possessions, so the Hogs were consistently threatening to extend the lead beyond comeback territory. But Old Dominion poured in 11 made 3-pointers, allowing them to score in bunches. That’s how the entire second half went: Arkansas’ consistent scoring allowed them to build an 8- or 10-point (or 14-point) lead, then the Monarchs would hit a few threes and get right back in it. Their final lead was 3-2 just three minutes into the game, but they never quite went away.

Not much defense played in this one. Musselman gave his transition defense a “triple F” grade, and it’s hard to argue with that. Arkansas allowed 29 points on 19 transition possessions. That’s the second straight game they’ve allowed far too many transition opportunities, but while Gardner-Webb was unable to capitalize, Old Dominion mostly was, as the Monarchs posted a 152.6 rating on those 19 opportunities.

Halfcourt, meanwhile, remains the Hogs’ domain. The halfcourt-only scores of Arkansas’ three games have been 71-42, 73-44, and 70-48. The Hogs have one of the nation’s elite halfcourt offenses one week into the season.

In a low-turnover game, both teams created lots of opportunities. Arkansas’ 6% turnover rate is easily its best of the season, but the Hogs also lost the rebounding battle for the first time. That 30% offensive rebounding rate for Old Dominion isn’t terrible, but it came on 40 missed field goals, so that equates to 12 offensive boards. The Monarchs got up 71 shots thanks to a low turnover rate (14%, or 10 turnovers) and very few trips to the line (two trips, 0.07 FTA/FGA).

In terms of shooting, I’d say Arkansas being above 60% eFG% from beyond the arc in all three games is pretty encouraging. For the second time in three games, the midrange game never got working, and the Hogs shot just 13%. If they end up overly dependent on midrange, they’re going to lose some games because they won’t score enough.

For the season, here are Arkansas’ points per shot from each level:

  • 3FG: 1.2
  • Midrange: 0.7
  • Rim: 1.5

The midrange is important. I’m not a Nate Oats-type who says you should never take midrange shots. Defenses tend to emphasize defending either the rim or the perimeter, so most defenses have soft spots where long 2-point jumpers will be consistently open. But there’s a reason defenses do that: midrange shots are much harder to make. They go in at only a slightly higher level than 3-pointers, but they are worth a full point less. If you have the option between shooting 40% from midrange and 35% from beyond the arc, then the 3-pointers will be more valuable to you.

Arkansas only took 27% of its shots from midrange in this game, so it didn’t hurt. I would prefer that number to be a little bit lower, but you also don’t want to tell guys to turn down open shots in the flow of the offense. I don’t know exactly how to coach it, because I am not a good basketball coach, and Eric Musselman is. All I can provide is stats that clearly show that Arkansas needs to start making that shot at a higher rate or start attempting it less often.

This was El Ellis’s best game as a Hog: 17 points, 8 assists, zero turnovers. It was also Devo Davis’s best game of the season, and he paced Arkansas at +14 in 37 minutes. Arkansas was incredibly balanced, with only Khalif Battle and Jalen Graham posting usage rates of greater than 20%, and five guys hitting double figures.

Here’s an interesting one: Trevon Brazile at zero plus-minus in 31 minutes. The Hogs won the game during the nine minutes he was on the bench. I looked at the lineup numbers and I don’t see anything too interesting. Brazile spent a few minutes of the first half on the bench (Jalen Graham replaced him) while Arkansas was turning a 9-5 lead into a 25-11 lead. Brazile didn’t miss all of that time, but he missed most of it. He subbed out again in the second half (this time for Jeremiah Davenport) and the Hogs went from up 40-33 to up 49-43 while he was on the bench.

Highlights

Up Next

Arkansas’ final tune-up game is Friday night against UNC Greensboro. The Spartans are the best team the Hogs will have faced so far, so they’ll need to be ready. The Hogs struggled to a 65-58 win last year, and Trevon Brazile tore his ACL in that game.

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