Once again, Arkansas is searching for answers early in the season following a 78-72 loss to UNC Greensboro.
To some extent, you might could see this coming. Maybe not the loss, but the bad game. Eric Musselman and staff don’t seem to be close to settling on a final rotation, and the Hogs seem to be way too individualistic on offense. It’s hard to play isolation basketball against a pack line defense.
We highlighted UNCG’s dangerous pack line in the preview, because the pack line has caused Musselman-coached teams all sorts of problems for years now. It pushed the Hogs last year in a 65-58 Arkansas win, but credit coach Mike Jones for improving the Spartan offense. As Arkansas struggled again, this time UNCG had enough offense to keep the Razorbacks at bay.
Arkansas trailed by 14 at the break. They cut at close as 4 midway through the second half, but the Spartans had enough answers. Ultimately, the 14-point deficit was too much to overcome.
After a dismal first half, the Arkansas offense shredded UNCG in the second half, but the Spartans also improved offensively, posting a solid 114.3 rating after halftime.
This Arkansas team is hideous in transition. Having 19 transition possessions and only scoring 15 points on them is crazy. Arkansas actually won the halfcourt game; had they slowed down and patiently attacked the Spartans, they would have won. Most of those “transition” possessions were really just guys (most Khalif Battle, though every guard was guilty at some point) trying to put their head down and dribble through the pack line.
But you can’t dribble through a pack line. That’s the one rule. The defense is built to provide help from the next man over, so it sort of collapses on driving guards. The pack line isn’t used in the NBA because NBA teams are too well-spaced and can take advantage of the fact that the pack line is willing to allow some open 3-pointers. This time, the 3-point shot didn’t fall, and it took too long for Arkansas to figure out how to attack this defense without it.
As expected, Arkansas couldn’t get to the rim, and their aggressive driving caused them to lose the turnover battle. The Hogs also couldn’t dominate on the offensive boards (because most shots went up too far from the rim to get the rebound). But all of that wouldn’t have mattered if the Hogs had shot well from 3 or defended well. They didn’t even have to do both! Arkansas shot 26% eFG% from downtown: their first game of the year under 50% in that department. Again, you don’t have to get hot from 3 to beat this style, that’s just the easiest way.
And the Arkansas defense was poor, outside of rebounding. Arkansas still isn’t forcing turnovers, and in this game, the Hogs could not defend the pick-and-roll. Greensboro took half its field goals at the rim and attempted a lot of free throws. That’s embarassing.
This was a concerning game from Trevon Brazile, who played very poorly on defense outside of rebounding. He got blown by repeatedly. Chandler Lawson was +6 in his 11 minutes and perhaps should have played more, as he looked competent on defense.
And then obviously, what a bad game from Battle, who hit just 2 of 10 from the floor. El Ellis was part of the problem in the first half and part of the solution in the second.
We need a larger sample size, but so far, the on-off efficiency numbers are interesting. When Brazile is on the floor, the Hogs are allowing 102.7 points per 100 possessions. That’s the worst among Arkansas’ top-8 minutes-getters and noticeably worse than the 98.0 when Makhi Mitchell is in the game. Right now, Brazile (102.7) and Battle (101.8) have the worst team defensive numbers, while Devo Davis (97.5) and Makhi (98.0) have the best. We’ll keep an eye on that, as on-off numbers are factored into our xRAPM player scores.
Is the season over?
No.
This will be a Q3 loss, which probably knocks the Hogs down a seed line come March. But Arkansas has always struggled with this kind of defense under Muss, and pack lines are generally long gone by the time you get to the NCAA Tournament, as that kind of style is susceptible to any team on a hot shooting night. Arkansas didn’t have it this time, and that’s basically all. This team will figure out how to attack pack-it-in defenses. I’d like Arkansas to start the season better, but I’m obviously fine as long as they finish strong, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t yet.
Up Next
Arkansas is at the Battle 4 Atlantis next week. They face Stanford in the first game and then the winner of Michigan and Memphis. It should be interesting.
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