Matchup Analysis: Duke

Matchup Analysis: Duke

Adam Ford

The Razorbacks may be reeling from two straight losses to close the Battle 4 Atlantis, but they can right the ship in a major way on Wednesday when they host Duke at Bud Walton Arena.

At one time, we wondered if this would be the biggest game in Bud Walton Arena history. With the Hogs sitting at 4-3 and unranked, I don’t think we can say that anymore, but this should be a rowdy atmosphere.

Meet the Blue Devils

Duke is 5-1. Their best win came against Michigan State, a preseason top-10 team that is currently 3-3 with losses to Duke, Arizona, and James Madison. They took a rare home loss to Arizona, and the Wildcats have since cracked the top-5. And they’ve taken care of business otherwise, though Southern Indiana made them work for it for a bit.

Consistency and Momentum metrics are not used until a team has played at least 8 games.

Arkansas’ numbers aren’t pretty right now on either end of the floor. Even with some homecourt advantage – and there should be plenty of homecourt advantage on Wednesday – our model says Duke 77, Arkansas 70.

Our Four Factors say that the Hogs can actually win two of the four stats: rebounding and free throw attempts. However, those victories project to be narrow, while Duke will shoot a much higher percentage from the floor and have fewer turnovers. Duke wins by shooting better than their opponent, turning it over much less, and fouling less often.

When Duke has the rock

Be wary of fool’s gold: Duke’s offense might get off to a slow start, due to the Blue Devils’ own struggles in the first half and Arkansas’ defense being strong in the first 20 minutes. But only a couple offenses in college basketball are better than Duke in the second half, and Arkansas’ defense has absolutely collapsed in the second half of several games this year.

Duke plays fast and finishes well in transition, which is another huge problem for the Hogs, whose transition defense has been abysmal. Arkansas has allowed 80+ points to the two most athletic offenses they’ve faced this season.

Duke gets to the rim, finishes there, and rarely turns the ball over. The Hogs should clean up defensive rebounds and might be competitive in defending around the rim, but unless the Hogs get much tougher in field goal defense, they’re going to have a hard time stopping Duke.

It’s a two-man show for the Blue Devils, with Tyrese Proctor and Kyle Filipowski as the biggest threats. Filipowski, the 7-foot sophomore and former 5-star recruit, is four inches shorter than Zach Edey but much more athletic. He’s shooting 63% true shooting, gets fouled at a decent rate, and only turns the ball over on 6% of his possessions. And that’s on an extremely-high 31% usage. Plus he’s averaging 12.1 rebounds per 40 minutes. I assume Arkansas will defend him the way they defended Edey, but that will be more of a challenge due to Duke’s more active offense making it hard to deny him the ball.

Proctor is a true creator. He’s averaging an excellent 7.2 assists per 40 minutes against a tiny 11% turnover rate. He’s a solid 3-point threat and is shooting 63% true shooting.

After those two, there’s a dropoff. The next-best guy is 6’9 forward Mark Mitchell, who shoots 62% and is the biggest threat to draw shooting fouls. Jeremy Roach is a veteran guard who isn’t a great shooter but is a veteran presence. The wing is a relative weakness, with a pair of freshmen – 6’3 Jared McCain and 6’5 Caleb Foster – splitting time there. Foster is the better scorer, while McCain is the better defender. The bench isn’t overly deep, with a big dropoff from Filipowski to 6’10 Ryan Young, the primary backup, who is very low-usage.

When Arkansas has the rock

Duke slows opponents down and keeps them out of transition. The good news is that Duke’s halfcourt defense is far from elite, while the Razorback halfcourt offense has actually been pretty good. Crisp halfcourt offense is going to be key to an Arkansas win.

The Hogs are elite at getting to the line and pretty good at finishing around the rim, but that’s about it. Shot selection has been catastrophic, and the Hogs don’t create extra possessions at the rate you’d expect from Eric Musselman-coached team.

The good news is that Duke has some clear vulnerabilities when it comes to allowing good shots, and they aren’t elite at defending any level of shot. The bad news is that they don’t foul a ton, so the Hogs will actually have to make shots, not just free throws.

Keys to the Game

Give the home crowd hope. Duke has been a bit slow-starting on offense this year, while the Hogs’ D has usually been solid in the first half. If Duke jumps out to a big lead, it’s hard to see Arkansas coming back. But if this game is close at halftime, anything can happen.

Keep Duke out of transition. Because of Arkansas’ transition issues, Duke will run the Hogs right out of the gym if allowed. Arkansas has to do a better job of getting back defensively and making Duke earn every bucket.

Better shot selection. Someone is going to have to get hot, but getting hot from midrange is almost worthless. Duke is not elite at preventing open 3-pointers or attempts near the rim. The Hogs have to get there.

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