Matchup Analysis: Oklahoma

Matchup Analysis: Oklahoma

Adam Ford

“If I had a nickel for every time Arkansas scheduled a multi-year non-conference series against a power conference opponent from a neighboring state only for them to join the SEC exactly three years into the series, I’d have two nickels, which isn’t a lot, but it’s weird that it’s happened twice.”

You can’t fault Arkansas for trying to schedule good non-conference series. In 2009, the Hogs started a 10-year deal to play Texas A&M in Arlington in football. After just three games (all Hog wins), the Aggies joined the SEC and the Hogs were stuck with a neutral-site conference game. Now history is repeating itself with Oklahoma.

Saturday will be the third game of the Crimson and Cardinal Classic at the BOK Center in Tulsa, and it will be the last time this game is played as a non-conference game, as the Sooners are joining the SEC next year. I don’t actually know what the plan is for the future of this rivalry. I think it would be fun to keep it in Tulsa once a year, but I’m not sure either side would want to give up a home game.

Meet the Sooners

If Porter Moser’s seat was starting to warm after a 34-33 (12-24 Big 12) start to his tenure in Norman, those concerns have been temporarily allayed by an 8-0 start that has mostly featured blowout wins and now a top-20 AP ranking.

The strength of schedule has been not great, ranking in the 300s out of 362 Division I teams. But Oklahoma beat a decent Iowa team by double digits on a neutral floor, a decent USC team on the same neutral floor, and just crushed 7-2 Providence by 21 points. And the only thing you can do against weak opposition is dominate, and the Sooners have done just that. Our models have them as the fifth-best team in the country.

Model pick: Oklahoma 79, Arkansas 66. The caveat on our model is that it’s still early, and the sample size is still small, so the model still prefers raw numbers over opponent adjustments. And raw numbers are best collected against weak schedules. If you offered me a line of, say, Oklahoma -11, I probably would not take it, even though our model says to.

Oklahoma’s strategy for winning is classic Moser basketball: shoot better and dominate the boards. Oklahoma has great shot selection, defends around the rim really well, and wins on the glass at both ends. They don’t care as much about turnovers or free throws.

We wrote this about Oklahoma in last year’s Sooner preview:

Like any Majerus-influenced team, the Sooners want to play very, very slow on offense. Everything is deliberate. They hate chaos. Fast breaks? Chaotic. Oklahoma will go slow and do everything with purpose. Offensive rebounds? Chaotic. The Sooners mostly don’t even try for offensive boards. Turnovers? Chaotic. Oklahoma doesn’t turn it over very often. Drawing fouls? Chaotic. The Sooners prefer smooth halfcourt sets with good ball movement leading to a wide-open shot.

As we’ll soon see, not all of that still holds true: Oklahoma has attacked the offensive glass pretty well this year and, most shockingly, now plays with pretty good pace. Moser almost totally rebuilt his roster in the transfer portal and the results have led to a more athletic team. Time will tell if this shift in strategy is working.

When Oklahoma has the rock

Oklahoma runs a lot of 5-out offense which means this is a really unfortunate game to not have Trevon Brazile, who is nursing an ankle injury. Chandler Lawson instead needs a big game defensively, as does Makhi Mitchell, who was awesome in last year’s game. The 5-out offense is well-spaced, the Sooners are looking to create 1-on-1 matchups against the defense. Basket cuts are a favorite play in this offense.

Unfortunately for the Hogs, this edition of the Sooners like to play very fast (87 pace) and get in transition (93 in transition percent, 98 in transition scoring rate). That’s a scary thought, as transition defense has been Arkansas’ single-biggest team weakness this year. Almost every opponent the Hogs have played has outscored them in transition.

Despite the willingness to run, the Sooners are still pretty deliberate in the halfcourt. They space the floor, pass a lot, and work to get a good shot. They are mostly uninterested in drawing fouls and they don’t mind some turnovers if it means they are being patient. Their size has allowed them to be a better offensive rebounding team than we normally see from Moser.

The biggest battle will be at the rim. Arkansas is allowing too many shots to go up near the rim (30 in rim usage), but the Hogs are defending at the rim really well (83 in rim eFG%), thanks mostly to elite shot-blocking. Oklahoma both gets to the rim (89) and finishes (93) with the nation’s best.

Roster-wise, this Oklahoma team is similar to what we’ve seen the last two years, it’s just playing better right now. You’ve got quick, finesse guards, and lots of tall forwards who can pass out on the perimeter. A lot of these guys have some inflated stats: there is no way many of their numbers are sustainable over a full season.

The offense starts with 6’2 Javian McCollum, a transfer from Siena who scores 14 points per game. He’s the main ballhandler and biggest 3-point threat, with about half his attempts coming from downtown. Staying in front of him will be a big challenge, possibly for Devo Davis, who has not played great defense this year but has filled this role nicely during his career.

The other main guards are 6’4 Milos Uzan and 6’5 Otega Oweh, a pair of returners who were role players last year. Uzan is struggling as a shooter (just 44% true shooting) but he leads the team in assists per 40. Oweh has taken a monster step forward in his second year in Norman, and he leads the team with 15 points per game. He shooting a ridiculous 72% eFG%, almost all of it around the rim and much of it in transition. He’s also been strong on the boards (7.0 rebounds per 40, pretty good for 6’5) and leads the team with a totally-unsustainable 3.3 steals per 40 minutes. Both of these guys have taken massive jumps this season in both raw and advanced stats, so I’m tempted to say that there’s no way they are actually elite players. But we’ll see.

Deeper in the guards bench are 6’4 Le’Tre Darthard and 6’6 Rivaldo Soares. Dathard doesn’t do anything well on offense but is a good defender, while Soares is a great rebounder at both ends (9.1 rebounds per 40, including 2.9 offensive).

The best surprise up front for OU has been 6’10 John Hugley IV. Hugley is a transfer from Pitt who fielded an offer from Arkansas last offseason. He was great for Pitt two years ago but missed most of the 2022-23 season with an injury. Despite mostly coming off the bench, he’s averaging 12 points and 6 rebounds per game and is the Sooners’ highest-rated forward. He’s shooting a ridiculous 74% true shooting, making half of his 3-pointers (a quarter of his shots are triples) and getting to the line at a decent rate (25% of shot chances inside the arc). He’s also averaging an excellent 12.1 rebounds per 40 minutes. His on-floor defensive numbers are good, but he isn’t a shot-block threat and graded as a poor defender during his time at Pitt, so he could get exposed at some point.

Hugley splits time at the 5 with the ultra-efficient 6’10 Sam Godwin, a more classic Moser player. Godwin is slightly lower-usage, but his 14.7 rebounds per 40 minutes is among the best in the nation, and his 9.7 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes is the best. He won’t take any 3-pointers, but he’s shooting a crazy-good 74% true shooting, and he draws plenty of fouls.

The starting 4 is 6’7 Georgia Tech transfer Jalon Moore. He’s yet another 3-point threat who rebounds and defends well.

Overall, the 8-man Sooner rotation boasts five guys shooting 60+% true shooting and three at 70+%. It also features five guys who average at least seven rebounds per 40 minutes (Arkansas’ top 8 players have two). So just as we saw in the Four Factors above, shooting and rebounding are the big concerns with Oklahoma.

When Arkansas has the rock

The Sooner defense wants to slow you down and make you uncomfortable. A couple opponents have successfully gotten in transition against them this year, and Arkansas is coming off its best transition game all season by a mile (38 points on 18 transition opportunities).

Moser’s big defensive mantra is “tough twos”. The Sooners will smother the perimeter and funnel defenders into the rim, where their bigs are always in position to contest shots. Opponents have been unable crack OU’s 3-point defense (97) – though strength of schedule matters here – and OU defends very well at the rim (89) and then clears the defensive rebound (85), and does it all without fouling (82).

In last year’s 88-78 win, the Hogs did exactly what you need to do to beat this type of defense: they went straight to the rim and dominated there (84% eFG%) while avoiding turnovers (13%). The Hogs did not need free throws (just 19 attempts), offensive rebounds (just 8), or transition points (just 22). Instead, they scored an excellent 66 halfcourt points and assisted on 19 of 35 made buckets.

Keys to the Game

Win the 1-on-1s. Oklahoma’s defense aims to win 1-on-1 defensive matchups by staying in front of the ball and contesting 2-point shots without fouling. On paper, this favors guys like Tramon Mark and Khalif Battle who can score off of dribble penetration and finish tough shots. Another guy who could have an impact is Jalen Graham, an elite finesse finisher who is not reliant on drawing fouls.

Stop the ball. Failure to stop the ball is a problem with Arkansas’ transition defense, and it’s also an area that Oklahoma excels at attacking. The Hogs need to use ball pressure to force Oklahoma into longer halfcourt sets.

Block party. Oklahoma wants to get to the rim and out-tough the defense. Even without Brazile, the Hogs need to defend the rim. Lawson and Mitchell are the two main guys that will likely see key minutes, and Mitchell was excellent on the Sooner bigs in last year’s game. It’s not impossible that Baye Fall could even get into the game if the Hogs are having issues contesting shots at the rim.


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