Fayette Villains

I hate to be that guy, but Arkansas just isn’t very good this year.

Obviously, that could change, and I have no doubt this team will improve, but Final Four teams don’t have four losses by mid-December. Arkansas was thoroughly outplayed in a 79-70 loss to Oklahoma in the Crimson and Cardinal Classic in Tulsa. This team cannot keep opponents away from the rim, can’t pressure the ball the way past Eric Musselman defenses have, and doesn’t have a true point guard. I don’t think that first one is getting fixed this year, but the second and third one might.

On the bright side, our model doesn’t think this was a bad loss at all. Check it out:

How does that awful performance earn an overall game grade of 93, Arkansas’ second-best of the season? Well, the game grade just looks at a team’s offensive, defensive, and net efficiencies in the game compared to the opponent-adjusted averages of all of its opponents. If you remember from the preview, our models say Oklahoma is the 6th-best team in the country, and we actually had Arkansas losing by even more than they did (model pick: 79-66, actual score: 79-70). So the Hogs actually did four points better than expected.

Yes, if you watched you know that it didn’t really play out that way – Oklahoma took control late in the first half and was never threatened again – but the result is the result.

Additionally, Tramon Mark and Trevon Brazile do not appear to be 100%. Mark posted a 15% usage and Brazile 11%, both well below their season averages. The team will obviously be better when they are healthy.

But it’s hard to shake the feeling that this team might be in for a rough ride, especially in a very deep SEC.

Advanced Stats

Surprisingly, Arkansas’ transition defense was not the culprit here. The Hogs came in with a horrible transition defense, and the Sooners with a great transition offense, but Arkansas only let Oklahoma run on 12 possessions for 17 points. And this marked two straight games that the Hogs topped 80+% scoring on transition possessions. That’s a nice little sign.

But unusually, Arkansas got destroyed in the halfcourt, which is where a Porter Moser team prefers to win anyway. The Hogs were not good at either end of the floor.

Two things remain true: Arkansas cannot prevent opponents from getting to the rim, and Arkansas’ offensive rebounding is not good enough to overcome a bad shooting night. Those sealed the deal in this one. The bad news is that I see no shot of any of those things changing.

Arkansas didn’t recruit elite shooting; at best, they recruited some streaky shooters can go create their own shot. So there will be off-nights where the Hogs shoot just 33% eFG% from beyond the arc. And Arkansas is a way-below-average offensive rebounding team this year. So they can’t make it up if they go cold from the field. Without elite defense or strong offensive rebounding, any off-night from the field is going to be a loss against a decent team.

There’s not an excuse for a team this tall to be this bad on the offensive glass. Makhi Mitchell has been a poor offensive rebounder for his entire career, and he’s sitting at a dismal 2.1 offensive boards per 40 minutes. Jalen Graham is much better (5.1), as is Chandler Lawson (3.3). And if Muss wanted to look deeper in his bench, Denijay Harris and Baye Fall are much higher, although there is a sample size issue with them.

Mitchell isn’t alone, though. Tramon Mark has literally zero offensive boards this year, despite being 6’6. And Khalif Battle, who is 6’5, averages a microscopic 0.2 per 40. I think the problem with those guys is that Arkansas’ isolation offense means they are always waiting to receive the ball on the perimeter so they can iso. So when a shot goes up, their only chance at an offensive board is if the ball somehow ricochets out to them.

As for defending the rim, that’s been a problem with Makhi for two seasons. He’s not a rim protector. Arkansas is decent at defending around the rim, but they allow way too shots to originate there in the first place, so their high shot-block rate is just something opponents are willing to live with. Makhi isn’t the only issue, but that’s theoretically a strength of his game, and Arkansas had a chance to upgrade from him this offseason and didn’t. If you want to give Fall those minutes you can, but there aren’t many other options.

Battle jumps out at minus-16 because, as discussed above, if his shot is off, he’s not able to contribute at all.

I also wonder if Graham can contribute more. He’s a better offensive rebounder and better scorer than Makhi, and there is absolutely zero evidence from last season or this season that he’s a worse defender. I guess he looks the part less, and he blocks fewer shots, but he’s a much better rebounder and offers so much more on offense.

I would be curious to see a 5-man lineup of Blocker-Mark-Battle-Brazile-Graham get extended minutes. That lineup would have enough scoring punch, but it would also have strong offensive rebounding. And I don’t think the defense would be horrible.

Up Next

Arkansas mercifully gets a full week off before taking on Lipscomb in North Little Rock on Saturday. Muss said he’s going to have change up his lineups, so I expect to see something a bit different.

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box score breakdown