SEC play begins Saturday as Arkansas hosts 25th-ranked Auburn in Fayetteville.
This is a huge game, because with four non-conference losses, Arkansas cannot afford a slow start to SEC play. An 0-3 start would be a total catastrophe, and the two after this one are on the road against decent teams.
Arkansas showed some promise with three wins to close non-conference play, including an offensive eruption against UNC Wilmington, but as of right now this is Eric Musselman’s worst defensive team and the offense is far from elite.
The biggest hope is Keyon Menifield, who is putting a ton of pressure on opposing defenses, thanks to a 58% eFG%, a massive free throw rate (66%), and a solid assist rate (4.4 per 40). But Menifield is not a great defender, and the fact that Devo Davis, the expected defensive leader, is having an awful season at that end is concerning. If Davis (and Trevon Brazile, who has also disappointed on defense) can crank up the defensive intensity, and Menifield can continue to put up big numbers on offense, the Hogs are absolutely capable of making a run. But all those things have to go right, and they have to start going right quickly.
Meet the Tigers
It’s hard to get a good perspective on Auburn. The Tigers are 11-2 and most of their wins have been blowouts, which is impressive. They’ve played five neutral-site games and have four wins over power conference teams. But their best win was either against a disappointing USC team at home or against a Kel’el Ware-less Indiana team on a neutral floor in early December. They also lost to Appalachian State (an excellent mid-major) in their only true road game.
Arkansas’ momentum score has ticked up, as the Hogs have looked noticeably better on offense since Keyon Menifield started playing. But Auburn is really good: our model has them as the nation’s 8th-best team right now.
Model pick: Auburn 79, Arkansas 70. The model gives the Tigers a 76% chance to win.
Auburn’s biggest threat is dominating field goal percentage. The Tigers make shots at a high rate and defend shots well. They also create a ton of extra possessions for themselves. Their lone weakness is that they do foul a lot on defense, and that plays into Arkansas’ biggest strength.
Arkansas’ biggest weakness this year has been creating extra possessions. The Hogs signed a bunch of scorers in the transfer portal and sure enough, they are hitting at a good rate from all parts of the floor and getting to the line. But the main portal signees were not good rebounders and didn’t force many turnovers, and sure enough, the Hogs as a team have struggled with those things. If they can’t crash the offensive boards or force more turnovers, it’s hard to see them having a big year.
When Auburn has the rock
This is a dicey matchup for an Arkansas defense that’s been killed in transition all season. Auburn is among the nation’s elite teams at finishing transition possessions with points, and they get in transition at a solid rate too. The Hogs can get stops if they can force longer possessions, but can they force enough against a very aggressive Auburn offense?
Auburn should be able to protect the ball, get plenty of free throws, and get to the line. Arkansas has not consistently prevented any of those things all season, and Auburn is quite good at them.
Key matchups will be perimeter defense – Auburn is not an elite 3-point shooting team – and rebounding, where both teams are decent. If the Hogs win those, they may be able to contest enough shots at the rim to prevent Auburn from scoring its projected 79 points.
Auburn has been forward- and wing-dominant, as we expected entering the season. Veteran 6’10 center Johni Broome is the leader. He shoots a solid 59% eFG%, dominates the boards (15.1 rebounds per 40 minutes), gets to the line (27% free throw rate), and rarely turns it over (11%). Defensively, he’s a major shot-block threat (3.5 blocks per 40).
Joining Broome in the frontcourt is 6’8 super-senior Jaylin Williams. Williams is shooting an incredible 65% eFG%, and he also gets to the line (22%), avoids turnovers (11%), and is very good on the boards (9.0 per 40). Like Broome, he presents a modest 3-point threat and can play out on the perimeter or slash to the rim. He’ll be spelled at times by West Memphis native Chris Moore, who never quite developed a strong offensive game and is largely a defense and rebounding specialist when he’s out there.
The backcourt was Auburn’s expected weakness. Those guys have exceeded expectations, but we’ll see how long it lasts when SEC plays gets going. The point guard combo of 6’1 true freshman Aden Holloway and 6’3 sophomore Tre Donaldson has been really impressive. They average 7.0 and 7.6 assists per 40, respectively. Holloway isn’t a great shooter (just 46% eFG%), but his 9% turnover rate is incredible for a point guard, and he gets to the line enough to be dangerous (31%). Donaldson is more of a perimeter player, and while he’s shooting really well (58% eFG%), he doesn’t get to the line (14%) and has a slightly elevated turnover rate (18%). Neither appear to be elite defenders, and Holloway grades as the team’s worst defender while ranking last in steals per 40 and defensive rebounds per 40, and third-to-last in on-floor team defensive efficiency (94.3).
One nice surprise has been 6’7 Chad Baker-Mazara, a little-heralded transfer from San Diego State who is averaging nine points per game with excellent efficiency numbers. He’s basically replaced KD Johnson at the 2-guard, though Johnson’s minutes and usage have now declined for two straight seasons. Baker-Mazara isn’t an elite shooter, but he’s basically living at the free throw line (40%) and almost never turns it over (7%). His length is a huge asset on defense, and he’s second on the team with 1.7 steals per 40. Finally we have 6’4 Denver Jones, an FIU transfer that Arkansas showed interest in last offseason. Jones has been a mild disappointment on offense – just 50% eFG% – but he gets to the line a lot.
When Arkansas has the rock
The Hogs have had some success by playing faster since Menifield started playing, but Auburn is very good at slowing teams down and keeping them out of halfcourt.
Arkansas does just two things well on offense: they get to the line and they finish at the rim. Unfortunately, Auburn is primed to take one of those things away, as the length of Broome and Williams mean Auburn’s biggest defensive strength is rim defense.
Arkansas as a team has lived and died by the midrange… and mostly died against good teams, because that’s not a good way to make a living on offense. Auburn will happily let the Hogs take midrange jumpers all game if they can keep them away from the rim and off the 3-point line, and the Tigers will win this game easily if that happens. Midrange can be a decent complement to an offense that can get to the rim or can get hot from beyond the arc, but Arkansas has not consistently done either of those things this year.
Can Menifield help there? Maybe. Against UNC Wilmington, the Hogs took just 21% of field goals from midrange, one of their lowest figures of the season. Relatedly, they grabbed the offensive rebound on a season-high 47% of missed shots (more shots at the rim – instead of midrange – means more offensive rebounds). However, Menifield played 28 minutes against Abilene Christian, and the Hogs took a way-too-high 38% of shots from midrange in that game (hitting a pitiful 30%) and only got the offensive board on 28% of misses. So there’s not enough data to tell us that Menfield can significantly improve shot selection for the offense. Arkansas’ assist numbers have spiked, the pace has gotten faster, and Arkansas has gotten to the free throw line even more, and all of those are good, but shot selection has to be better for this team to make any kind of run.
Keys to the Game
Deny Broome. I think this could be a good game for Chandler Lawson or Makhi Mitchell on defense, as Arkansas has to keep Johni Broome from taking over. Musselman teams are usually pretty good at forcing opposing guards to win the game instead of forwards, and I think the Hogs would rather take their chances with Holloway, Baker-Mazara, and Donaldson doing most of Auburn’s work.
Free throw fest. Arkansas has the deeper roster and is better at getting to the line, especially with Menifield running the point. An ugly game with awful pacing and 50+ fouls probably benefits the Hogs. That’s not the most aesthetic way to win, but if it works then it works.
More shot chances. Arkansas has not created enough shot chances this season, as they have been bad on offensive glass and mediocre at avoiding turnovers. Auburn isn’t elite at either turnover-forcing or defensive rebounding, and the Hogs just dominated both stats against UNCW. It’s time for that to translate to a game against a good team.
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