Arkansas hits the road for a monster game against Oklahoma State in Stillwater. Both teams are 1-0, with the Cowboys defeating two-time defending FCS champs South Dakota State 44-20 in their opener.
Charting the Hogs
Thanks to amazing charting data from SEC Stat Cat, we have lists of Arkansas formations and playcalls for Bobby Petrino’s debut. I only used the first half for this report, since that’s the only time we saw Arkansas’ starters play. The second-half offense wasn’t exactly conservative (quick side note: I get annoyed when people – and there are a few of them – accuse Arkansas of running up the score in this game; please note that shaving five minutes off each half was the sportsmanship, allowing Arkansas to get actual reps for its backups without feeling bad).
First, let’s look at playcalls:
As we expected from our first look at Petrino last winter, we didn’t see a lot of RPOs. I would expect that to continue.
Here are a few other things we saw:
Moving the pocket. Petrino likes play action, and since he started incorporating mobile quarterbacks into his scheme, he’s been willing to get creative with bootlegs and other pocket-movers. This will benefit Taylen Green – a notable sack-escaper anyway – and give him opportunities to burn aggressive defenses. It will also give Green a chance to get a pass off if the Hogs’ protection is as bad as it was a year ago.
This was my favorite concept, where Green fakes the Dart run and bootlegs to his left, where he’s got a tight end on a Wheel route (behind a Post from the receiver):
The Hogs tried this twice out of two different formations, and both resulted in completions, first to Luke Hasz for eight yards, and then this touchdown to Ty Washington.
Multiple tight ends. Arkansas’ tight end room is loaded, with Luke Hasz, Ty Washington, and Var’keyes Gumms providing a receiving threat, and Danish transfer Andreas Paaske as the blocking specialist. Unsurprisingly, Petrino wanted to get his tight ends involved. This isn’t a major departure from Dan Enos, and you could argue that Enos’s best decision (or at least, only good decision) as Arkansas’ offensive coordinator was to use the tight ends a lot.
In the first half, we saw five instances of this Ace formation, with tight ends to each side:
The touchdown above to Washington came out of a twin-TE set, with one receiver to each side and two tight ends together. The Hogs used that one twice from Pistol, and once from Shotgun.
All told, the eight plays with multiple tight ends gained 115 yards, with seven successful.
Mostly zone runs. Like Kendal Briles, Petrino’s scheme uses zone runs as its base. He’ll use some gap-schemed runs – we saw a Power Veer, a couple of Duos in short yardage, and a Wide Trap – but it’s mostly zone. Eight zone runs went outside the tackles for 88 yards and this touchdown from Ja’Quinden Jackson:
That’s the sort of play that can dominate an overmatched team like UAPB, so I want to see it work against a better team, but I like what I saw in terms of creating space.
Everything worked against a bad opponent, but what was nice to see is that this bore little resemblance to what Petrino was doing in College Station last year. That’s got to be a sigh of relief for Arkansas fans, since the Aggies weren’t great offensively a year ago. Does that mean Petrino hasn’t lost his fastball and is taking Arkansas’ offense back to the glory days? Obviously not, but it means that Jimbo Fisher was a major factor in last year’s Aggie offense.
Previewing Oklahoma State
The Cowboys had a weird 10-4 season a year ago. They had no offensive identity early in the year and were blitzed 33-7 by South Alabama in a September non-conference game. Eventually, they settled on Alan Bowman at quarterback and an identity built around a powerful run game led by Ollie Gordon II, who led the FBS in rushing yards. The Cowboys were undefeated when Gordon carried the ball 20 or more times. They won a share of the Big 12 regular season title and then beat Texas A&M in their bowl game.
Gordon and Bowman are back. In fact, just about everyone is back, as Oklahoma State has 20 full- or part-time starters back this season. Unsurprisingly, they are one of the Big 12 favorites, competing with newcomer Utah for that title. So this isn’t going to be easy.
Could big plays be a deciding factor?
Over at Best of Arkansas Sports, I detailed how Oklahoma State’s biggest weakness – a defense that allows too many big plays and an offense that doesn’t quite generate enough – bodes well for Arkansas. You can check that out here.
Here are a few things to watch from the matchup.
Can Arkansas keep from going backwards? Oklahoma State uses a 3-3-5 type of defense, which is becoming rarer in major-college football. As I explain in the article above, Mike Gundy wanted that kind of defense, hence the unusual hire of his defensive coordinator. The 3-3-5 is incredibly disruptive, especially against the run, as linemen often struggle to figure out who to block. The Cowboys were among the nation’s leaders in tackles for loss last season, and they forced 23 turnovers, tied for 21st nationally.
We saw above that Petrino will move the pocket to buy time for his quarterback, but the Hogs have to be able to consistently move forward to have a chance to win. That means no protection breakdowns, and it means plenty of holes for Jackson to run through.
Are Arkansas’ receivers ready for primetime? Arkansas’ receivers had no issues with UAPB’s secondary, even with Andrew Armstrong out, but this is the kind of game where we need to see open guys down the field. The Hogs went with very big receivers a year ago – possibly an over-correction from the high-drop teams in 2021 and 2022 – and while they didn’t drop many passes, they didn’t get open very often either. Petrino added a ton of speed in the offseason, but the possession guys like Armstrong, Isaac TeSlaa, and Tyrone Broden are still getting most of the snaps, even if speedy guys like Isaiah Sategna and Jordan Anthony are also in the mix.
Oklahoma State’s aggressiveness at the line of scrimmage is a ticking time bomb on the back end. Few teams in the country gave up more big plays through the air last year, and Arkansas receivers are going to get a lot of 1-on-1 matchups. If the line does its job and gives Green time to push the ball downfield, this will be a big test for the Hog wideouts.
Can the Hog defensive line take over a game? The Razorbacks finished a respectable 43rd in EPA+/Play allowed last year. That isn’t bad considering major roster turnover and a new defensive coordinator with a new scheme. Like Oklahoma State, much of their success was up front, where they were very good at stuffing runs and getting after the quarterback. Key players are back, led by Landon Jackson, Eric Gregory, and Cam Ball, and the Hog defensive line is probably the most complete unit on the team.
Oklahoma State found a rhythm last year behind a talented offensive line. The Cowboys aren’t as run-heavy as you might think: Gundy does have an Air Raid background, after all, and wants to use the pass to set up the run. The Cowboys will come out throwing with short, safe passes to soften the defense, and then Gordon will be turned loose against un-stacked boxes.
Bowman, a seventh-year senior and two-time transfer, is the opposite of Green as a quarterback. He isn’t overly mobile and doesn’t throw deep much (or particularly well). But he’s very accurate on shorter passes and rarely puts the ball in harm’s way, which is exactly what Oklahoma State wants. The Cowboys want to be balanced, avoid turnovers, and avoid penalties.
The risk for Oklahoma State is Arkansas being able to use four down linemen to slow the run game and get consistent pressure on Bowman. If there’s any area of concern for the Cowboys after Week 1, it’s the lack of running room for Gordon, who was mostly bottled up by the Jackrabbits. If the Hog defensive line gets the edge in this game, there’s a real shot for an upset.
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