Fayette Villains

This week’s matchup analysis is short because we don’t have full data yet. That will start next week, once just about everyone has played multiple FBS teams.

The Hogs don’t want to let the lingering disappointment over last week’s game affect them, as UAB starts a stretch of several winnable games that might even allow the Hogs to be bowl-eligible before a brutal November begins.

Meet the Blazers

UAB football has been on quite the ride. Earlier this week, we introduced their coach Trent Dilfer and explained why last week’s 32-6 loss to UL Monroe was so damaging (the Warhawks are coached by the guy UAB passed up to hire Dilfer).

I assume UAB’s plan in hiring Dilfer was to get a guy known for working with talented high school quarterbacks, so maybe they could secure a quarterback via recruiting or the portal and then start building around that. Last year, the Blazers went 4-8, and Dilfer stuck with Jacob Zeno, who was already on the roster, at quarterback. Zeno was fine, throwing for 3,100 yards as the Blazer offense moved the ball well in most of their games. However, their defense was a disaster.

Zeno is back, so there was some reason to think that the UAB offense could be really strong. Through two games, it’s regressed badly compared to last year. Against UL Monroe, Zeno completed 22 of 32 passes for 167 yards with an interception and a lost fumble. He’s not being given much of a chance, as UAB’s offensive line is a catastrophe. Zeno spent much of the game running for his life. UAB’s offensive line didn’t look great in the opener against Alcorn State either, so this appears to be a real issue, not just one bad game.

In fact, UAB’s biggest team weaknesses are on both lines. UL Monroe dominated the line of scrimmage, with their offense calling 46 runs and posting a solid 2.72 line yards per rush with zero sacks allowed in the passing game. Penalties, communication and execution issues, and general lack of talent are all factors in UAB’s poor line performance.

The Blazer offense was horrific on early downs and couldn’t generate any big plays. Their run scheme isn’t bad, as they posted a decent 2.61 line yards per rush and 48% rushing success. But their 36 dropbacks generated just 141 net yards (3.9 yards per dropback) with two turnovers, three sacks, and just 39% success.

What to watch for

Domination in the trenches. Losing at the line of scrimmage that badly against UL Monroe says UAB’s in for a rude awakening in their first season in the American Athletic Conference. Arkansas’ offensive line got tired down the stretch Saturday but was dominant for much of the game against a very good line of scrimmage team in Oklahoma State, while the defensive line – a team strength – was solid against the run. I would expect the Hogs to lean on the Blazers in the run game on both sides. I do also want to see more quarterback pressure. The Hogs didn’t get much Saturday, but UAB’s offensive line is having trouble protecting their quarterback. It might be a small red flag if the Hogs don’t get a ton of pressure.

Finding a #2 running back. The Hogs about ran Ja’Quinden Jackson into the ground, and he’s not going to last through SEC play if they keep doing that. More concerning was the clear fear of running the ball when Jackson went out. When Rodney Hill was in the game, the Hogs mostly threw or ran the quarterback. That included much of the second half, when the offense looked sort of funky. If the staff isn’t confident in Hill, then nothing is lost by giving Braylen Russell those snaps, since he’s on track to be a future starter. Rashod Dubinion has been limited by injuries, and he could eventually factor in. No matter who it is, the offense has to continue to work when Jackson gets a breather.

Field goal game. Scott Fountain has had a fascinating time as special teams coordinator. Although it’s notoriously difficult to quantitatively measure special teams performance because of all the different play types involved, the most respected measures all say Fountain has done an excellent job. For example, Brian Fremeau’s FEI rankings had the Hog special teams 29th in the country last year and 23rd in 2022. Cam Little was a reliable field goal kicker, and since 2021, the Hogs have been excellent at putting almost every kickoff through the endzone for a touchback (at one point last year, I saw a stat that said the Hogs led the SEC in touchback percentage since 2021, but I don’t know if that still holds true). Even with punting issues, punt coverage has been mostly solid. The Hogs had several punts blocked in 2020 and 2021 but that has been less of an issue since. The Hogs have also had several impressive trick plays, with Jack Lindsey’s fake field goal against Mizzou in 2020 and the fake field goal touchdown against Alabama in 2021 coming to mind.

But the screwups, when they occur, seem to come at the worst times. Even Little wasn’t immune, missing in the fourth quarter of the 2022 Texas A&M game and then again in the fourth quarter of last year’s BYU loss. The blocked punt touchdown against Auburn in 2020 was a huge reason why Arkansas lost that game (the bigger reason being that Bo Nix threw the ball backward for a fumble and the officials blew the play dead and gave the ball back to the Tigers).

On Saturday, it was more of the same. Arkansas’ punting issues appear to be solved by Devin Bale, who dropped a punt at the Cowboy 1, which helped set up Arkansas’ first touchdown. But a muffed punt set up the Cowboy’s game-tying touchdown in the fourth quarter, and a closer look at that play looks bad for Fountain, since gunner Krosse Johnson was pushed into Isaiah Sategna earlier in the game and no adjustments appear to have been made. And kicker Kyle Ramsey missed two field goals. His misses were from 41 and 46 and his make was from 45. The first miss also played a role in Arkansas going for it on fourth down from the Oklahoma State 24 later on and not getting it, so there’s clearly a lack of confidence. And why not? All three kicks were very wobbly and low. Ramsey isn’t going to make a high percentage of kicks from beyond 40 when he kicks like that. Not having a reliable kicker is going to be an issue when the Hogs have several games on the schedule that will probably be close.

The biggest question is why Ramsey is kicking at all. Fountain has been pretty good at recruiting good specialists, and his latest was Matthew Shipley, who transferred from Hawaii. For his career, Shipley is 38 of 41 on field goals inside of 40 yards and 18 of 32 (56%) from beyond 40. He’s a two-time Lou Groza Award semifinalist. How did Ramsey beat Shipley out for the job?

I’ll be interested to see who kicks on Saturday. If Shipley is the better option, they should probably go to him before more critical kicks are needed.

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