It’s Prove-It Week in the SEC, where several programs are trying to prove that they can still have a good year… or at least salvage a bowl appearance.
The biggest of those games will be Arkansas at Auburn. The Hogs looked vastly improved against Oklahoma State, but looking improved will only get you so far. Wins have to come, and with Auburn looking like one of the weaker SEC opponents on the Razorbacks schedule, it becomes tough to find a path to bowl eligibility if the Hogs lose Saturday on the Plains.
Auburn is also trying to salvage Hugh Freeze’s second season following a stunning 21-14 home loss to California. Freeze gambled by sticking with Payton Thorne in the offseason and it burned him. Now the Tigers are on to new QB Hank Brown. Brown looked good against New Mexico on Saturday, but DJ Durkin’s defense is struggling right now.
Auburn is certainly taking this game seriously. Oklahoma State had a stripe-out, but Auburn is going for a POWER STRIPE:
Give them credit, that’s actually really creative. I’m curious to see how it looks on television. I’m also curious why opponents keep striping out a team that went 4-8 last year. Arkansas isn’t good enough to get everyone’s best shot.
Over at Best of Arkansas Sports, I’ve got an in-depth preview of the matchup keys for Saturday. Be sure to check it out!
It’s our first week for model picks. Unlike other models, this one does not use any preseason projections, so expect wonky results for the first few weeks, like Northern Illinois currently being a top-5 team. But we’re off to a good start: Arkansas 33, Auburn 22.
- Matchup Analysis: Illinois
- Matchup Analysis: Louisiana Tech
- Box Score Breakdown: Arkansas 76, Lipscomb 60
Other games of note
Florida at Mississippi State (11 am, ESPN, Florida -4.5). Billy Napier owns the hottest seat in all of college football. If the Gators lose on Saturday against woeful Mississippi State, he’ll probably be fired immediately. If they win… he’ll probably be fired later. Mississippi State just lost 41-17 to Toledo. Their defense is horrendous and they don’t do anything particularly well. I’ll be interested to see if the Bulldogs improve at all over the course of the season, because if not, they are looking at a 2-10 year. Model pick: State 32, Florida 26
Tennessee at Oklahoma (6:30 pm, ABC, Tennessee -7.5). What a way for the Sooners to open SEC play. Tennessee runs the old Baylor offense, so it’s fitting that they’re doing the old Baylor thing where they run up otherworldly stats against hapless teams. Of course, if they can put up big numbers in Norman, that’ll be a different story. I’m very concerned about Oklahoma’s offense. Jackson Arnold has not looked good at all and my initial impression is that a spirited Sooner defensive effort won’t be enough. Model pick: Tennessee 27, Oklahoma 25
Utah at Oklahoma State (3 pm, FOX, Oklahoma State -2). Two of the three Big 12 favorites (Kansas State is the other) collide in Stillwater. It would probably make Hog fans feel better if the Cowboys could win this one. Model pick: Utah 28, Oklahoma State 27
UCA at UAPB (6 pm). The Golden Lions have acquitted themselves well since the 70-0 opener, beating Arkansas Baptist and then losing 41-28 to Tennessee State. This figures to be a fun in-state matchup.
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