Two fanbases enter Saturday on edge, and one will leave feeling really bad about the direction of their program.
Hugh Freeze has a much longer leash. He’s only in his second year, and even though the Tigers were a disappointing 6-7 a year ago and have already taken a home loss to Cal this year, Freeze is going to get time to clean up Bryan Harsin’s mess.
Sam Pittman’s leash is much smaller. It’s pretty widely known that he has to make a bowl this year to keep his job. And that’s why this is such a big game. Auburn just hasn’t looked great; among Arkansas’ eight SEC opponents, only Mississippi State has looked worse. If the Hogs can’t beat Auburn, it gets tougher to find six wins.
Over at Best of Arkansas Sports, I’ve got an in-depth preview of the matchup that focuses on Auburn’s defensive weaknesses under new DC DJ Durkin. It includes a lot of background and context that I won’t repeat here, so I recommend checking it out.
But the gist of that article that you’ll also see here is that there are some key elements of this matchup that appear to clearly favor the Hogs. We’ll see if Bobby Petrino’s rejuvenated offense is built to win in SEC play, and it will be disappointing if the Hogs can’t find a way to win this one.
Meet the Tigers
Auburn suffered a shocking loss in Week 2 against California. After playing poorly against the Golden Bears in Berkeley a year ago, the Tigers played bad enough to lose this season.
Second-year coach Hugh Freeze didn’t build up much goodwill in a 6-7 season a year ago, so this is an inauspicious start. Freeze really needs to win this game, so expect desperation from both teams.
We have advanced stats, but with every team only playing two or three FBS games, the data is still very wonky and subject to rapid changes week to week. But here we are:
Auburn was not convincing in either of its two FBS games: they looked worse against New Mexico than Arizona did, and they looked only slightly better against Cal than San Diego State did.
Despite offensive improvement against New Mexico with a new quarterback, they scored 45 points a week after Arizona hung 61 on the Lobos. That’s why their offense ranks 115th in predicted production in our model.
When Auburn has the ball
Auburn’s offense has had trouble staying on schedule (14th in Leverage Rate, 19th in Success Rate) recovering when falling behind (23rd in Pass Downs Success Rate). Their issue has been turnovers (127th). They had six against Cal, including four interceptions.
That game proved to be the final straw for Payton Thorne. The former Michigan State transfer was shaky a year ago, but Freeze rolled the dice by not targeting another QB in the portal, hoping to improve pass protection and receiver talent instead. So Auburn turned to Hank Brown, a redshirt freshman. Brown had a solid first start against a very weak defense, completing 17 of 25 passes for 235 yards and four touchdowns. He didn’t turn it over or take any sacks, which is what Auburn wants.
Auburn doesn’t want Brown to have to carry them. They’d rather star RB Jarquez Hunter carry the load on offense. But that might not happen on Saturday. The Razorbacks were decent against the run last year in Travis Williams and Marcus Woodson’s first season as co-DCs, but the start this year has been even better. Arkansas’ defensive line is loaded with big, quick veterans, and the linebackers are very fast. The Hogs have been particularly good at preventing big runs, ranking 5th in percentage of opponent runs to gain four or more yards.
I fully expect Auburn to move the ball on the ground. But can they lean on the run game? That’s going to be the challenge. Arkansas has done well forcing opponents to throw: when UAB and Oklahoma State moved the ball, it came when they strung together several completions in a row and only peppered in runs here and there. Arkansas would love to force Auburn to do that.
The Hogs forced Alan Bowman to beat them and he ultimately did, but Bowman is a seventh-year senior. Hank Brown is a redshirt freshman making his second career start (and first against a power conference defense). Arkansas has to like its chances if Brown drops back 35 times or more.
The big concern for the Razorbacks has been the lack of pressure. The Hogs are keeping most throws in front of them, even though they are allowing way too many completions. But the pressure was almost non-existent against Oklahoma State, while UAB mostly got the ball out too quick for the pass rush to do much.
Expect the Tigers to come out throwing, giving Brown short, safe throws that target the Razorback defense in the slots, on rub routes, and in the flats. If the Hogs struggle to shut those down, then the Tigers might have a path to start getting the run game going, or even to start taking deep shots. This is going to be a big game for the Razorback secondary that did not look great against UAB. Not having Jaylen Braxton or Hudson Clark doesn’t help at all.
When Arkansas has the ball
I profiled first-year Auburn defensive coordinator DJ Durkin in the piece at Best of Arkansas Sports, but Durkin has a tall order in front of him.
His first-year defenses typically struggle, especially against the run. Ole Miss’s 2020 defense was bad all-around and especially awful against the run, while his 2022 Texas A&M run defense was shockingly bad. Durkin likes 3-man defensive lines – similar to Oklahoma State in that regard – but his linemen have to be extremely active for his scheme to work. So far, Auburn’s defensive line has not shown the overwhelming athleticism Durkin needs.
The Tigers let New Mexico and Cal move the ball fairly easily. They’ve been good at tightening in the red zone (35th), they force turnovers at a decent rate (54th), and they can get off the field if they get you off schedule (53rd), but they don’t do anything else well.
Freeze himself had an interesting evolution in talking about how his defense would match up with Bobby Petrino’s offense. The pair were both coordinators at Texas A&M last year, so there’s some familiarity. Consider what he said on Sunday, in his initial preview of the game:
“I haven’t watched them on offense yet… but I did ask DJ (Durkin) yesterday, ‘Has anything changed from what he is normally?’ and he said it’s very similar.”
Now here’s what he said on Wednesday, during the SEC Coaches’ Telecast:
“I don’t know if their time together is advantageous for one or the other, maybe more advantageous for Bobby,” Freeze said during the SEC coaches teleconference on Wednesday. “I don’t think DJ has changed a lot, but both will have good game plans, and both will have to make adjustments.”
“I think Bobby is such a good offensive coach that he probably changes from school to school based upon the talent that he has,” Freeze said. “I think they look a little bit different here than they did at A&M.”
That’s interesting. From “very similar” to “a little bit different” in a matter of two days.
On Greg McElroy and Cole Cubelic’s morning radio show Wednesday, UAB coach Trent Dilfer said that Petrino’s offense is basically just the stuff he ran at Louisville for Lamar Jackson, which makes it quite different from what we saw at Texas A&M last year.
I also get conflicting feelings from Freeze’s quotes and Dilfer’s. I almost get the sense that Freeze watched film between Sunday and Wednesday (he said Sunday he hadn’t seen Arkansas offensive film yet) and got a bit more nervous about the matchup. On the flip side, Dilfer seemed to offer a clear path to shutting the Hog offense down.
Of course, Dilfer was focusing on the pass game. We’ll get back to that in a second, but the matchup Auburn desperately needs is right here:
Auburn allowed 157 non-sack rush yards to New Mexico, giving up 6.0 yards per rush. The most concerning part for the Tigers is that they allowed eight runs of 10 or more yards. Arkansas leads the FBS in that stat, with 29% of non-sack rushing attempts gaining 10 or more yards. Ole Miss is a distant second at 23%. (Lest you blame stat-padding against UAPB, note that the UAPB game is not included in those numbers.)
Ja’Quinden Jackson in particular is the guy to watch. So far this year, 56% of his carries – more than HALF – have gained 10+ yards. That’s first in the FBS among all backs with 20 or more carries (UAPB game is included in that stat).
Simply put, we’ll find out if Petrino’s revitalized run game is for real. Durkin has mostly struggled to stop the run since his return to the SEC in 2020, and Auburn is not off to a great start this year. Arkansas is running all over opponents, but this is the SEC. If Arkansas can run for 250 yards or more, they should win this game, probably easily.
If Arkansas has to throw too much, we have another matchup that looks like a toss-up. Auburn is allowing way too much through the air: Cal’s Fernando Mendoza completed 25 of 36 passes for 235 yards, while New Mexico’s Devon Dampier finished 22 of 44 for 291 yards.
However, Durkin defenses are usually strong against the pass, and they like to press receivers on the outside. On his radio appearance, Dilfer noted that could be key to an Auburn victory. He said Arkansas has “only one good receiver” (presumably Andrew Armstrong) and noted that the others probably couldn’t win 1-on-1 matchups. Dilfer said Petrino’s offense is built to attack zone defenses, but Auburn is built to play more man-to-man and force Razorback receivers to be physical off the line of scrimmage.
The “beat Petrino with press man” thing is not new at all: watch highlights of Arkansas’ losses to Alabama and LSU in 2011 and you’ll see exactly what Dilfer is describing, Razorback receivers getting jammed at the line of scrimmage and struggling to run their routes.
The main difference is what Petrino has changed since 2011: dual-threat quarterback, more complex run game. Petrino’s Louisville offenses were run-heavy (250 yards per game in 2016) and could punish press man teams that couldn’t stop the run with six in the box. It’s when Auburn goes all-in by bringing safeties deep into the box and playing Cover 0 man that the Hogs have to get receivers open in 1-on-1 situations.
Keys to the game
Offensive line takeover. Everyone who has watched Arkansas’ offense this year knows that the offensive line is night-and-day better. The scheme is better, attacking the defense through multiple gaps, and the linemen are executing well. That has to continue Saturday, as the Razorbacks need all the fireworks we’ve seen in the run game to continue in SEC play.
Big day for receivers. Arkansas is still struggling to find another reliable receiver to complement Armstrong. Tyrone Broden has had a rough start to the year in terms of catching the ball, but he’s at least able to get open some. Isaiah Sategna is getting open here and there but hasn’t had a breakout yet. Isaac TeSlaa has great hands but struggles to get separation. And the Hogs can’t seem to get the ball to Jordan Anthony despite his great speed. The tight ends aren’t being used in the passing game, which feels like a waste of skill. Luke Hasz has been blocking well but he could use some targets. Someone needs to step up and have a big game.
Make Brown win for Auburn. The Hogs would like to see 30-35 dropbacks for Hank Brown. If that happens, it means Auburn couldn’t rely on their run game and had to take to the air. Brown might be the truth and might do enough to deliver an Auburn victory, but I think the Hogs are willing to take their chances on that. A lot can go wrong: Arkansas’ secondary isn’t great but it is much quicker than New Mexico’s, so passing windows will close much faster. And Brown had very clean pockets and lots of time to throw last week, here’s guessing the Razorbacks can make it a little tougher. Forcing Brown to throw means containing Jarquez Hunter and the run game. They don’t have to completely shut the run game down (that would be nice but is unlikely), they just need to limit big runs and keep most carries under five yards.
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