Box Score Breakdown: Texas A&M 21, Arkansas 17

Box Score Breakdown: Texas A&M 21, Arkansas 17

Adam Ford

It was Groundhog Day at Jerry World, as Arkansas blew a fourth-quarter lead and lost 21-17 to Texas A&M. It’s the second blown fourth-quarter lead this year that resulted in a loss.

Pittman in close games

Sam Pittman is now 6-16 in one-possession games at Arkansas, but let’s take a closer look at that record.

Pittman’s six wins in one-possession games break down the following way:

  • Two wins where the Hogs led wire-to-wire (2020 Mississippi State, 2022 Cincinnati)
  • Two wins where the Hogs led most of the way, but blew a fourth-quarter lead and then won in overtime (2021 LSU, 2022 Kansas)
  • Two wins where the Hogs actually trailed in the second half and won on a late lead change (2021 Mississippi State, 2023 Florida)

So two of the six wins involve blown second-half leads that were saved in overtime, and only two of them were actual back-and-forth games where the Hogs pulled out a win.

Pittman’s 16 losses break down this way:

  • Ten losses where the Hogs trailed (or were tied) the entire fourth quarter (2021 Ole Miss, 2021 Alabama, 2022 Liberty, 2022 LSU, 2022 Missouri, 2023 BYU, 2023 LSU, 2023 Ole Miss, 2023 Alabama, 2023 Mississippi State)
  • Six losses in true back-and-forth games where the Hogs had a fourth-quarter lead but lost (2020 Auburn, 2020 LSU, 2020 Missouri, 2022 Texas A&M, 2024 Oklahoma State, 2024 Texas A&M)

So Pittman is 2-6 at Arkansas in one-possession finishes that involved a fourth-quarter lead change, including 0-2 this year.

If you want the good news, it’s that Arkansas has led in the fourth quarter in all five games this year. They’re also much closer to winning than they were in 2022 and 2023: in those seasons, the Hogs were 3-9 in one-possession games, but in eight of the nine losses the Hogs didn’t actually have a fourth-quarter lead.

Blowing leads is obviously frustrating, but it’s better than not having a lead to blow. Eventually, one of these close games is going to break their way. Pittman’s close game coaching leaves much to be desired and probably won’t be competent as long as he’s the head coach, but luck alone will eventually help the Hogs out if they keep getting close.

Advanced stats

Hog fans might feel like the Hogs should have won this one, but honestly, the stats say Arkansas was lucky this game was even close in the fourth quarter. The Hogs’ two touchdown drives were aided by highly unlikely plays: a 75-yard touchdown on 3rd-and-10 on the first one, and a fake punt on 4th-and-15 on the second.

Neither offense played well, with each actualizing just 36% of the available yards and each suffering double-digit havoc plays. But per usual, the Hogs couldn’t finish drives: their four drives to earn a first down inside the Aggie 40 resulted in 10 points (one touchdown, one field goal, one interception, and a failed fake field goal).

Arkansas remains horrendous on early downs. They were bailed out by a bunch of third-and-long conversions against Auburn, but they had only a couple against the Aggies. They’ve got to figure out a way to do something on first and second down that actually puts them closer to scoring.

Texas A&M, as we expected, was exactly the opposite: good on early downs, awful when falling behind the chains.

Mixed signals here. On the one hand, Arkansas had too many runs blown up in the backfield, hence the miserable 1.25 line yards per rush.

On the other hand, nearly half (48%) of non-sack runs had positive EPA., and nearly one-fifth (19%) gained 10 or more yards. So why did Arkansas abandon the run? I’m not understanding Bobby Petrino’s strategy here. He’s gone to a more run-heavy scheme, but the old “spread passing guru” tendency hasn’t left his system.

The Hogs had a much lower success rate and lower explosive play rate when throwing. Take out the 75-yard touchdown, and the Hogs averaged just 4.3 yards per dropback.

The Aggies got pressure on 38% of Green’s dropbacks, and he completed 5 of 13 passes for 125 yards (75 of them on one play) with three sacks and one scramble. Those 17 dropbacks produced only 100 net yards, and that becomes just 25 net yards on 16 plays if you take out the one bomb to TeSlaa.

Most telling, Green only scrambled one time. The Aggies kept a spy on him to keep him from running and it worked. The tackles were an issue once again for Arkansas: Keyshawn Blackstock was charged with seven pressures allowed, and Fernando Carmona allowed two. The edge pressure made it harder for Green to flee the pocket, where he’s most dangerous. The three interior linemen combined to only allow one pressure.

Up Next

The Hogs draw 4th-ranked Tennessee in primetime on Saturday night. My first look at the numbers makes me think that this will be a fairly low-scoring game. I am concerned that Arkansas will not be able to generate enough offense to have a shot if they can’t run the ball, and Tennessee ranked 1st in the nation in EPA+/Rush allowed.

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