After another one-possession loss dropped the Hogs to 3-2 overall and 1-1 in the SEC, Arkansas is back at home for a date with 4th-ranked Tennessee.
Over at Best of Arkansas Sports, I’ve got a detailed preview of the key matchup between the Tennessee offense and the Razorback defense. Be sure to check it out as this post has much less detail on the Volunteers’ offensive scheme.
Meet the Vols
Tennessee is 4-0. Their win over NC State looked really impressive until Clemson hung 59 points on the Wolfpack two weeks later. They gutted out a road win over Oklahoma in their SEC opener.
Tennessee’s offense garners all the headlines, but as we’ll see, their defense is actually much better. I expect this game to be much lower-scoring than a lot of fans think, and there’s a good shot the Hogs are still in it late into the second half.
When Tennessee has the ball
Main thing about Tennessee: the passing game provides the fireworks (3rd in explosive play rate), but they run the ball a lot. They are the most run-heavy team in the SEC.
The simple reason, explained in more detail in my BOAS post, is that Tennessee’s veer-and-shoot offense is a simple math game. Wide receiver splits keep slot defenders from being able to help against the run, and vertical routes force the safeties back. If the defense tries to keep seven defenders in the box against the run, the offense will throw deep. If they keep two deep safeties to take away the deep ball, then they leave six in the box. Most defenses take the second option, so veer-and-shoot teams are usually run-heavy.
Arkansas, of course, ran a veer-and-shoot during Kendal Briles’ time as offensive coordinator. We’ve detailed this before, but the veer-and-shoot typically runs into light boxes, so Rocket Sanders had a ton of running room. When Dan Enos arrived in 2023 and did away with the very wide splits and the deep passing, the light boxes went away, hence Sanders’s sudden downfall.
So this scheme is running-back friendly. It’s also quarterback-friendly, as the quarterback often knows where he’s throwing before the snap. Tennessee runs the most RPOs in the SEC, and these typically only have one route. And the deep passing game uses a lot of deep “choice” routes, which the quarterback usually decides to throw pre-snap. Here’s the best example of that during the Briles era:
Going back to the numbers, we see that Tennessee has two main issues:
- No Rocket Sanders. The Vols are just 68th in EPA+/Rush despite mostly seeing friendly boxes. This means that they aren’t great on early downs (67th in Standard Downs EPA+/Play) and don’t get first downs “early” (before third down) very often (74th in Early Conversion %). We’ll look at more numbers in a second, but their run game looks good due to volume and weak competition, not efficiency.
- Too much havoc. Tennessee is just 63rd in Havoc Rate Allowed. Veer-and-shoot offenses tend to allow a lot of negative plays (this was an issue at Arkansas under Briles) for a simple reason: the single reads for the passing game cause plays to break down if the primary option isn’t available. Tennessee is old-school in that most passes are max protected, meaning that the tight end and running back stay in to block, so there are only three receivers in the pattern.
The run game can pop off some explosives but is surprisingly inefficient given the attention the defense gives the pass. Top running back Dylan Sampson has a lower broken tackle rate than Jarquez Hunter and Le’Veon Moss, per SEC Stat Cat. The Hogs may have an easier time containing him.
Arkansas has been solid against the run this year using just its front six, so this actually seems like a matchup that could favor the Arkansas defense. If Tennessee struggles to run the ball, the veer-and-shoot’s short-to-intermediate passing game isn’t quite as developed as other offenses.
The headline-grabber for Tennessee this year is Nico Iamaleava. Historically, veer-and-shoot offenses struggled to attract elite quarterbacks due to the perception that the scheme is a “college” offense that doesn’t develop pro players. But Iamaleava was a 5-star recruit and has legitimate pro tools, so he’s starting despite being just a redshirt freshman.
Iamaleava has an excellent arm. He can make all the deep throws and his accuracy is very good on all throws. He’s still progressing in his ability to read defenses and anticipate, but he doesn’t put the ball in harm’s way very often. He’s far from an elite runner, but he’s capable enough to not be ignored on read-option runs.
Pressure and sacks are a mixed bag. Tennessee’s frequent use of max protection means that getting pressure on him is really hard – he’s been pressured on an SEC-low 12.5% of his dropbacks this year – but when he does get pressured, things go south really fast. The 25 pressured dropbacks against Iamaleava this year have ended this way: 4 of 11 passing for 37 yards and a pick, plus five sacks and nine scrambles. The fact that he’s only able to get a pass off less than half the time he’s pressured is a testament to the scheme: limited options to throw to means it’s hard to check down.
Oklahoma tried to get pressure by blitzing a ton – nearly half of his dropbacks were blitzed – but they failed to get enough pressure to stop the Vols: Iamaleava completed 13 of 21 passes for 194 yards and a touchdown, with three sacks.
But only 13 completions (and three sacks) was promising. And the Vols didn’t run well against the Sooners: 52 carries for 151 yards (2.9 per rush). Oklahoma’s bigger problem was that its offense is a nightmare. Had the Sooners had a more capable offense, Tennessee might have been in trouble.
When Arkansas has the ball
Moving the ball on Tennessee is… not easy. The Vols are first in overall EPA+/Play allowed, first in EPA+/Rush allowed, first in Havoc Rate, first in Available Yards Allowed, and fjrst in Standard Downs EPA+/Play. This is a tall order for Arkansas.
If you want the good news, it’s that Tennessee has faced four horrible offenses. Kent State is probably the worst FBS team, and Oklahoma has looked dismal offensively all season.
Arkansas’ offense has survived by winning third down (8th). The Hogs get a decent number of explosive plays and have run the ball decently overall. Obviously they’ve been hurt badly by turnovers and negative plays, and they’ve been pretty awful on early downs overall.
The Razorbacks have no shot if they give the ball away, and they need to be more efficient than they have been on early downs. Fix those two things, and they might could create enough explosives to keep this game close.
Tennessee’s run defense is elite, led by another excellent defensive line that may be as good as Texas A&M’s. They can be a bit vulnerable to explosive runs, but expect the Hogs to have a hard time relying on the run to move the football.
Like Auburn and Texas A&M, the Volunteers allow a lot of short completions. Their linebackers struggle in coverage, and their slot coverage units aren’t great either. Unfortunately, Arkansas hasn’t demonstrated that it can take advantage of this.
The Hogs did make some changes against Texas A&M to activate the slot receivers. We saw at-the-snap motion with Isaiah Sategna – the Hogs have the lowest rate of at-the-snap motion in the SEC this season, according to SEC Stat Cat – and there was an intentional effort to involve Sategna and Isaac TeSlaa in the screen game. Entering the game, Taylen Green’s average depth of target was about 11 yards downfield on passes; against the Aggies, it was a season-low 7.4 yards. Shorter throws tend to lead to more completions and work better when the quarterback is being pressured.
But shorter throws also tend to create fewer explosives. If you can’t run the ball – and Arkansas couldn’t against Texas A&M – then you are reliant on explosives. Going back to the second half of the Auburn game, three of Arkansas’ last four touchdown drives have featured a play that gained at least 20 yards. The Hogs have to find a way to consistently produce those, and I’m not seeing how they do it with shorter throws.
So I don’t know what kind of rabbit Bobby Petrino can pull out his hat here. Emphasizing Green as a scramble threat would be a good start after the Aggies only let him scramble once. Other than that, the Hogs will just need better play out of an offensive line and receiving corps that has not looked up to SEC standards through two games. I don’t think a quarterback change would do much good at this point, as Green isn’t really the problem and his legs and improvisation were the best offense against Auburn.
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